Susceptibility sets and the final outcome of collective Reed–Frost epidemics

This paper is concerned with exact results for the final outcome of stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemics among a closed, finite and homogeneously mixing population. The factorial moments of the number of initial susceptibles who ultimately avoid infection by such an epidemic are shown to be intimately related to the concept of a susceptibility set. This connection leads to simple, probabilistically illuminating proofs of exact results concerning the total size and severity of collective Reed–Frost epidemic processes, in terms of Gontcharoff polynomials, first obtained in a series of papers by Claude Lef`evre and Philippe Picard. The proofs extend easily to include general final state random variables defined on SIR epidemics, and also to multitype epidemics

A Time Series Analysis of Air Pollution and Preterm Birth in Pennsylvania, 1997–2001

Preterm delivery can lead to serious infant health outcomes, including death and lifelong disability. Small increases in preterm delivery risk in relation to spatial gradients of air pollution have been reported, but previous studies may have controlled inadequately for individual factors. Using a time-series analysis, which eliminates potential confounding by individual risk factors that do not change over short periods of time, we investigated the effect of ambient outdoor particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM(10)) and sulfur dioxide on risk for preterm delivery. Daily counts of preterm births were obtained from birth records in four Pennsylvania counties from 1997 through 2001. We observed increased risk for preterm delivery with exposure to average PM(10) and SO(2) in the 6 weeks before birth [respectively, relative risk (RR) = 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.98–1.18 per 50 μg/m(3) increase; RR = 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00–1. 32 per 15 ppb increase], adjusting for long-term preterm delivery trends, co-pollutants, and offsetting by the number of gestations at risk. We also examined lags up to 7 days before the birth and found an acute effect of exposure to PM(10) 2 days and 5 days before birth (respectively, RR = 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00–1.21; RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.98–1.18) and SO(2) 3 days before birth (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.99–1.15), adjusting for covariates, including temperature, dew point temperature, and day of the week. The results from this time-series analysis, which provides evidence of an increase in preterm birth risk with exposure to PM(10) and SO(2), are consistent with prior investigations of spatial contrasts

A Spatial Analysis of Rift Valley Fever Virus Seropositivity in Domestic Ruminants in Tanzania

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an acute arthropod-borne viral zoonotic disease primarily occurring in Africa. Since RVF-like disease was reported in Tanzania in 1930, outbreaks of the disease have been reported mainly from the eastern ecosystem of the Great Rift Valley. This cross-sectional study was carried out to describe the variation in RVF virus (RVFV) seropositivity in domestic ruminants between selected villages in the eastern and western Rift Valley ecosystems in Tanzania, and identify potential risk factors. Three study villages were purposively selected from each of the two Rift Valley ecosystems. Serum samples from randomly selected domestic ruminants (n = 1,435) were tested for the presence of specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and M (IgM), using RVF enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay methods. Mixed effects logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the association between potential risk factors and RVFV seropositivity. The overall RVFV seroprevalence (n = 1,435) in domestic ruminants was 25.8% and species specific seroprevalence was 29.7%, 27.7% and 22.0% in sheep (n = 148), cattle (n = 756) and goats (n = 531), respectively. The odds of seropositivity were significantly higher in animals sampled from the villages in the eastern than those in the western Rift Valley ecosystem (OR = 1.88, CI: 1.41, 2.51; p<0.001), in animals sampled from villages with soils of good than those with soils of poor water holding capacity (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.58, 3.02; p< 0.001), and in animals which had been introduced than in animals born within the herd (OR = 5.08, CI: 2.74, 9.44; p< 0.001). Compared with animals aged 1-2 years, those aged 3 and 4-5 years had 3.40 (CI: 2.49, 4.64; p< 0.001) and 3.31 (CI: 2.27, 4.82, p< 0.001) times the odds of seropositivity. The findings confirm exposure to RVFV in all the study villages, but with a higher prevalence in the study villages from the eastern Rift Valley ecosystem

Multimorbidity in bipolar disorder and under-treatment of cardiovascular disease: a cross sectional study

Background: Individuals with serious mental disorders experience poor physical health, especially increased rates of cardiometabolic morbidity and premature morbidity. Recent evidence suggests that individuals with schizophrenia have numerous comorbid physical conditions which may be under-recorded and under-treated but to date very few studies have explored this issue for bipolar disorder. Methods:We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a dataset of 1,751,841 registered patients within 314 primary-care practices in Scotland, U.K. Bipolar disorder was identified using Read Codes recorded within electronic medical records. Data on 32 common chronic physical conditions were also assessed. Potential prescribing inequalities were evaluated by analyzing prescribing data for coronary heart disease (CHD) and hypertension. Results: Compared to controls, individuals with bipolar disorder were significantly less likely to have no recorded physical conditions (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.54-0.63) and significantly more likely to have one physical condition (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16-1.39), two physical conditions (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) and three or more physical conditions (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30-1.64). People with bipolar disorder also had higher rates of thyroid disorders, chronic kidney disease, chronic pain, chronic obstructive airways disease and diabetes but, surprisingly, lower recorded rates of hypertension and atrial fibrillation. People with bipolar disorder and comorbid CHD or hypertension were significantly more likely to be prescribed no antihypertensive or cholesterol-lowering medications compared to controls, and bipolar individuals with CHD or hypertension were significantly less likely to be on 2 or more antihypertensive agents. Conclusions: Individuals with bipolar disorder are similar to individuals with schizophrenia in having a wide range of comorbid and multiple physical health conditions. They are also less likely than controls to have a primary-care record of cardiovascular conditions such as hypertension and atrial fibrillation. Those with a recorded diagnosis of CHD or hypertension were less likely to be treated with cardiovascular medications and were treated less intensively. This study highlights the high physical healthcare needs of people with bipolar disorder, and provides evidence for a systematic under-recognition and under-treatment of cardiovascular disease in this group

Towards a large-scale quantum simulator on diamond surface at room temperature

Strongly-correlated quantum many-body systems exhibits a variety of exotic phases with long-range quantum correlations, such as spin liquids and supersolids. Despite the rapid increase in computational power of modern computers, the numerical simulation of these complex systems becomes intractable even for a few dozens of particles. Feynman's idea of quantum simulators offers an innovative way to bypass this computational barrier. However, the proposed realizations of such devices either require very low temperatures (ultracold gases in optical lattices, trapped ions, superconducting devices) and considerable technological effort, or are extremely hard to scale in practice (NMR, linear optics). In this work, we propose a new architecture for a scalable quantum simulator that can operate at room temperature. It consists of strongly-interacting nuclear spins attached to the diamond surface by its direct chemical treatment, or by means of a functionalized graphene sheet. The initialization, control and read-out of this quantum simulator can be accomplished with nitrogen-vacancy centers implanted in diamond. The system can be engineered to simulate a wide variety of interesting strongly-correlated models with long-range dipole-dipole interactions. Due to the superior coherence time of nuclear spins and nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond, our proposal offers new opportunities towards large-scale quantum simulation at room temperatures

Estimation of proteinuria as a predictor of complications of pre-eclampsia: a systematic review

Background Proteinuria is one of the essential criteria for the clinical diagnosis of pre-eclampsia. Increasing levels of proteinuria is considered to be associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. We aim to determine the accuracy with which the amount of proteinuria predicts maternal and fetal complications in women with pre-eclampsia by systematic quantitative review of test accuracy studies. Methods We conducted electronic searches in MEDLINE (1951 to 2007), EMBASE (1980 to 2007), the Cochrane Library (2007) and the MEDION database to identify relevant articles and hand-search of selected specialist journals and reference lists of articles. There were no language restrictions for any of these searches. Two reviewers independently selected those articles in which the accuracy of proteinuria estimate was evaluated to predict maternal and fetal complications of pre-eclampsia. Data were extracted on study characteristics, quality and accuracy to construct 2 × 2 tables with maternal and fetal complications as reference standards. Results Sixteen primary articles with a total of 6749 women met the selection criteria with levels of proteinuria estimated by urine dipstick, 24-hour urine proteinuria or urine protein:creatinine ratio as a predictor of complications of pre-eclampsia. All 10 studies predicting maternal outcomes showed that proteinuria is a poor predictor of maternal complications in women with pre-eclampsia. Seventeen studies used laboratory analysis and eight studies bedside analysis to assess the accuracy of proteinuria in predicting fetal and neonatal complications. Summary likelihood ratios of positive and negative tests for the threshold level of 5 g/24 h were 2.0 (95% CI 1.5, 2.7) and 0.53 (95% CI 0.27, 1) for stillbirths, 1.5 (95% CI 0.94, 2.4) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.39, 1.4) for neonatal deaths and 1.5 (95% 1, 2) and 0.78 (95% 0.64, 0.95) for Neonatal Intensive Care Unit admission. Conclusion Measure of proteinuria is a poor predictor of either maternal or fetal complications in women with pre-eclampsia

Pythagorean Approximations for LEGO: Merging Educational Robot Construction with Programming and Data Analysis

Abstract. This paper can be used in two ways. It can provide reference information for incorporating diagonal elements (for bracing or gear meshing) in educational robots built from standard LEGO kits. Alternatively, it can be used as the basis for an assignment for high school or college students to recreate this information; in the process, students will exercise skills in both computer programming and data analysis. Using the paper in the second way can be an excellent integrative experience to add to an existing course; for example, the Exploring Computer Science high school curriculum concludes with the units “Introduction to Programming”, “Computing and Data Analysis”, and “Robotics”

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal

Measurement of the B+ and B-0 lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices

The lifetimes of the B+ and B-0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z(0) decays recorded at LEP. Z(0) --> b (b) over bar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results aretau(B+) = 1.643 +/- 0.037 +/- 0.025 pstau(Bo) = 1.523 +/- 0.057 +/- 0.053 pstau(B+)/tau(Bo) = 1.079 +/- 0.064 +/- 0.041,where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z(o) decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and (b) over bar hadron decays, No evidence fur such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon(B)) is measured to be Re(epsilon(B)) = 0.001 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.003and the fractional difference between b and (b) over bar hadron lifetimes is measured to(Delta tau/tau)(b) = tau(b hadron) - tau((b) over bar hadron)/tau(average) = -0.001 +/- 0.012 +/- 0.008