Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to spatial policies of land occupation, size and year of establishment of properties, accessibility measures and soil fertility. The analysis was made based on remote sensing data and household level data gathered with a questionnaire. Both types of analyses indicate that the highest level of total deforestation is found inside agrarian projects, especially in those established more than 20 years ago. Even though deforestation rates are similar inside and outside official settlements, inside agrarian projects forest depletion can exceed 50% at the property level within 10–14 years after establishment. The data indicate that both small-scale and medium to large-scale farmers contribute to deforestation processes in Rondônia State encouraged by spatial policies of land occupation, which provide better accessibility to forest fringes where soil fertility and forest resources are important determinants of location choic

Targeting deforestation rates in climate change policy: a "Preservation Pathway" approach

We present a new methodological approach to incorporating deforestation within the international climate change negotiating regime. The approach, called "Preservation Pathway" combines the desire for forest preservation with the need to reduce emissions associated with forest loss by focusing on the relative rate of change of forest cover as the criteria by which countries gain access to trading preserved forest carbon stocks. This approach avoids the technically challenging task of quantifying historical or future deforestation emission baselines. Rather, it places emphasis on improving quantification of contemporary stocks and the relative decline in deforestation rates necessary to preserve those stocks. This approach places emphasis on the complete emissions trajectory necessary to attain an agreed-upon preserved forest and as such, meets both forest conservation and climate goals simultaneously

New insights into the distribution and conservation status of the Golden-White Tassel-Ear Marmoset Mico chrysoleucos (Primates, Callitrichidae)

Among the 13 Mico species recognized by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, six are listed as "Data Deficient". The geographic range of most of the Mico species has been estimated from only a few records. We report new localities and the geographic extension of Mico chrysoleucos. In addition, we confirmed the presence of the species in two distinct protected areas. We modeled the habitat suitability of M. chrysoleucos using the maximum entropy method and including new records obtained by the authors in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. From the total area of occurrence calculated for the species, 22.8% is covered by protected areas and indigenous lands. The annual mean deforestation rate estimated between 2000 and 2015 was 2.95%, and the total area deforested by 2015 was 3354 km2 or 8.6% of the total distribution limits of the species. The habitat lost between 2000 and 2015 was 3.2% (1131 km2 ) of the total potential distribution, while the habitat loss area legally protected was 31 km2, and the habitat loss in settlements was equal to 691 km2. Our results extend the geographic distribution of the species about 100 km farther south, with the Maracanã River being a possible geographic barrier for the species. The significantly low rate of habitat loss inside protected areas and indigenous land, when compared to unprotected areas, points out the importance of these areas to M. chrysoleucos conservation. The species is relatively wide-ranging, legally protected, and resilient to regional anthropic threats. However, the hydroelectric schemes and the improvement of the road system in southern Amazonia pose an imminent threat to the species

Widespread forest vertebrate extinctions induced by a mega hydroelectric dam in lowland Amazonia

Mega hydropower projects in tropical forests pose a major emergent threat to terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity worldwide. Despite the unprecedented number of existing, underconstruction and planned hydroelectric dams in lowland tropical forests, long-term effects on biodiversity have yet to be evaluated. We examine how medium and large-bodied assemblages of terrestrial and arboreal vertebrates (including 35 mammal, bird and tortoise species) responded to the drastic 26-year post-isolation history of archipelagic alteration in landscape structure and habitat quality in a major hydroelectric reservoir of Central Amazonia. The Balbina Hydroelectric Dam inundated 3,129 km2 of primary forests, simultaneously isolating 3,546 land-bridge islands. We conducted intensive biodiversity surveys at 37 of those islands and three adjacent continuous forests using a combination of four survey techniques, and detected strong forest habitat area effects in explaining patterns of vertebrate extinction. Beyond clear area effects, edge-mediated surface fire disturbance was the most important additional driver of species loss, particularly in islands smaller than 10 ha. Based on species-area models, we predict that only 0.7% of all islands now harbor a species-rich vertebrate assemblage consisting of ≥80% of all species. We highlight the colossal erosion in vertebrate diversity driven by a man-made dam and show that the biodiversity impacts of mega dams in lowland tropical forest regions have been severely overlooked. The geopolitical strategy to deploy many more large hydropower infrastructure projects in regions like lowland Amazonia should be urgently reassessed, and we strongly advise that long-term biodiversity impacts should be explicitly included in pre-approval environmental impact assessments

Environmental Costs of Government-Sponsored Agrarian Settlements in Brazilian Amazonia

Brazil has presided over the most comprehensive agrarian reform frontier colonization program on Earth, in which ~1.2 million settlers have been translocated by successive governments since the 1970's, mostly into forested hinterlands of Brazilian Amazonia. These settlements encompass 5.3% of this ~5 million km2 region, but have contributed with 13.5% of all land conversion into agropastoral land uses. The Brazilian Federal Agrarian Agency (INCRA) has repeatedly claimed that deforestation in these areas largely predates the sanctioned arrival of new settlers. Here, we quantify rates of natural vegetation conversion across 1911 agrarian settlements allocated to 568 Amazonian counties and compare fire incidence and deforestation rates before and after the official occupation of settlements by migrant farmers. The timing and spatial distribution of deforestation and fires in our analysis provides irrefutable chronological and spatially explicit evidence of agropastoral conversion both inside and immediately outside agrarian settlements over the last decade. Deforestation rates are strongly related to local human population density and road access to regional markets. Agrarian settlements consistently accelerated rates of deforestation and fires, compared to neighboring areas outside settlements, but within the same counties. Relocated smallholders allocated to forest areas undoubtedly operate as pivotal agents of deforestation, and most of the forest clearance occurs in the aftermath of government-induced migration

PEDO-TRANSFER FUNCTIONS FOR ESTIMATING SOIL BULK DENSITY IN CENTRAL AMAZONIA

Under field conditions in the Amazon forest, soil bulk density is difficult to measure. Rigorous methodological criteria must be applied to obtain reliable inventories of C stocks and soil nutrients, making this process expensive and sometimes unfeasible. This study aimed to generate models to estimate soil bulk density based on parameters that can be easily and reliably measured in the field and that are available in many soil-related inventories. Stepwise regression models to predict bulk density were developed using data on soil C content, clay content and pH in water from 140 permanent plots in terra firme (upland) forests near Manaus, Amazonas State, Brazil. The model results were interpreted according to the coefficient of determination (R2) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) and were validated with a dataset consisting of 125 plots different from those used to generate the models. The model with best performance in estimating soil bulk density under the conditions of this study included clay content and pH in water as independent variables and had R2 = 0.73 and AIC = -250.29. The performance of this model for predicting soil density was compared with that of models from the literature. The results showed that the locally calibrated equation was the most accurate for estimating soil bulk density for upland forests in the Manaus region

Proliferation of Hydroelectric Dams in the Andean Amazon and Implications for Andes-Amazon Connectivity

Due to rising energy demands and abundant untapped potential, hydropower projects are rapidly increasing in the Neotropics. This is especially true in the wet and rugged Andean Amazon, where regional governments are prioritizing new hydroelectric dams as the centerpiece of long-term energy plans. However, the current planning for hydropower lacks adequate regional and basin-scale assessment of potential ecological impacts. This lack of strategic planning is particularly problematic given the intimate link between the Andes and Amazonian flood plain, together one of the most species rich zones on Earth. We examined the potential ecological impacts, in terms of river connectivity and forest loss, of the planned proliferation of hydroelectric dams across all Andean tributaries of the Amazon River. Considering data on the full portfolios of existing and planned dams, along with data on roads and transmission line systems, we developed a new conceptual framework to estimate the relative impacts of all planned dams. There are plans for 151 new dams greater than 2 MW over the next 20 years, more than a 300% increase. These dams would include five of the six major Andean tributaries of the Amazon. Our ecological impact analysis classified 47% of the potential new dams as high impact and just 19% as low impact. Sixty percent of the dams would cause the first major break in connectivity between protected Andean headwaters and the lowland Amazon. More than 80% would drive deforestation due to new roads, transmission lines, or inundation. We conclude with a discussion of three major policy implications of these findings. 1) There is a critical need for further strategic regional and basin scale evaluation of dams. 2) There is an urgent need for a strategic plan to maintain Andes-Amazon connectivity. 3) Reconsideration of hydropower as a low-impact energy source in the Neotropics

Spatial and temporal dimensions of landscape fragmentation across the Brazilian Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon in the past decades has been suffering severe landscape alteration, mainly due to anthropogenic activities, such as road building and land clearing for agriculture. Using a high-resolution time series of land cover maps (classified as mature forest, non-forest, secondary forest) spanning from 1984 through 2011, and four uncorrelated fragmentation metrics (edge density, clumpiness index, area-weighted mean patch size and shape index), we examined the temporal and spatial dynamics of forest fragmentation in three study areas across the Brazilian Amazon (Manaus, Santarém and Machadinho d’Oeste), inside and outside conservation units. Moreover, we compared the impacts on the landscape of: (1) different land uses (e.g. cattle ranching, crop production), (2) occupation processes (spontaneous vs. planned settlements) and (3) implementation of conservation units. By 2010/2011, municipalities located along the Arc of Deforestation had more than 55% of the remaining mature forest strictly confined to conservation units. Further, the planned settlement showed a higher rate of forest loss, a more persistent increase in deforested areas and a higher relative incidence of deforestation inside conservation units. Distinct agricultural activities did not lead to significantly different landscape structures; the accessibility of the municipality showed greater influence in the degree of degradation of the landscapes. Even with a high proportion of the landscapes covered by conservation units, which showed a strong inhibitory effect on forest fragmentation, we show that dynamic agriculturally driven economic activities, in municipalities with extensive road development, led to more regularly shaped, heavily fragmented landscapes, with higher densities of forest edge

Long-term carbon loss in fragmented Neotropical forests

Tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle, as they store a large amount of carbon (C). Tropical forest deforestation has been identified as a major source of CO2 emissions, though biomass loss due to fragmentation—the creation of additional forest edges—has been largely overlooked as an additional CO2 source. Here, through the combination of remote sensing and knowledge on ecological processes, we present long-term carbon loss estimates due to fragmentation of Neotropical forests: within 10 years the Brazilian Atlantic Forest has lost 69 (±14) Tg C, and the Amazon 599 (±120) Tg C due to fragmentation alone. For all tropical forests, we estimate emissions up to 0.2 Pg C y−1 or 9 to 24% of the annual global C loss due to deforestation. In conclusion, tropical forest fragmentation increases carbon loss and should be accounted for when attempting to understand the role of vegetation in the global carbon balance.This study was part of the project ‘Biodiversity conservation in a fragmented landscape at the Atlantic Plateau of São Paulo’ (BIOTA/Caucaia and BioCAPSP) funded by FAPESP (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, project no. 99/05123-4, 01/13309-2, 02/02125-0, 02/02126-7), CNPq (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, project no. 690144/01-6), Fundação O Boticário de Proteção à Natureza, and by BMBF (German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, project n. 01LB0202). J.P.M. and M.C.R. thank the Brazilian Science Council (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico) for his research fellowship (process no. 307934/2011-0 and 312045/2013-1, respectively). A.H. and S.P. were supported by the ERC advanced grant 233066. M.M. has been supported by BMBF (project n. 01LB0202), and the Department of Ecological Modelling of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ). We thank Birgit Felinks for the support during the Mata Atlântica project. Florian Hartig provided valuable comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. S.P. has been funded by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres within the project ‘Biomass and Bioenergy systems’. A.H. was also supported by the Helmholtz-Alliance Remote Sensing and Earth System Dynamics. A.H. thanks C. Wissel and H. Bossel for supporting the FORMIND project over the years