The US stock market leads the Federal funds rate and Treasury bond yields

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including and especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen at key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

The way that you do it? An elaborate test of procedural invariance of TTO, using a choice-based design

The time tradeoff (TTO) method is often used to derive Quality-Adjusted Life Year health state valuations. An important problem with this method is that results have been found to be responsive to the procedure used to elicit preferences. In particular, fixing the duration in the health state to be valued and inferring the duration in full health that renders an individual indifferent, causes valuations to be higher than when the duration in full health is fixed and the duration in the health state to be valued is elicited. This paper presents a new test of procedural invariance for a broad range of time horizons, while using a choice-based design and adjusting for discounting. As one of the known problems with the conventional procedure is the violation of constant proportional tradeoffs (CPTO), we also investigate CPTO for the alternative TTO procedure. Our findings concerning procedural invariance are rather supportive for the TTO procedure. We find no violations of procedural invariance except for the shortest gauge duration. The results for CPTO are more troublesome: TTO scores depend on gauge duration, reinforcing the evidence reported when using the conventional procedure

RNAi-Based Functional Genomics Identifies New Virulence Determinants in Mucormycosis

Mucorales are an emerging group of human pathogens that are responsible for the lethal disease mucormycosis. Unfortunately, functional studies on the genetic factors behind the virulence of these organisms are hampered by their limited genetic tractability, since they are reluctant to classical genetic tools like transposable elements or gene mapping. Here, we describe an RNAi-based functional genomic platform that allows the identification of new virulence factors through a forward genetic approach firstly described in Mucorales. This platform contains a whole-genome collection of Mucor circinelloides silenced transformants that presented a broad assortment of phenotypes related to the main physiological processes in fungi, including virulence, hyphae morphology, mycelial and yeast growth, carotenogenesis and asexual sporulation. Selection of transformants with reduced virulence allowed the identification of mcplD, which encodes a Phospholipase D, and mcmyo5, encoding a probably essential cargo transporter of the Myosin V family, as required for a fully virulent phenotype of M. circinelloides. Knock-out mutants for those genes showed reduced virulence in both Galleria mellonella and Mus musculus models, probably due to a delayed germination and polarized growth within macrophages. This study provides a robust approach to study virulence in Mucorales and as a proof of concept identified new virulence determinants in M. circinelloides that could represent promising targets for future antifungal therapies

Association between Carotid Plaque Characteristics and Cerebral White Matter Lesions: One-Year Follow-Up Study by MRI

Objective: To prospectively assess the relation between carotid plaque characteristics and the development of new cerebral white matter lesions (WMLs) at MRI. Methods: Fifty TIA/stroke patients with ipsilateral 30-69% carotid stenosis underwent MRI of the plaque at baseline. Total plaque volume and markers of vulnerability to thromboembolism (lipid-rich necrotic core [LRNC] volume, fibrous cap [FC] status, and presence of intraplaque hemorrhage [IPH]) were assessed. All patients also underwent brain MRI at baseline and after one year. Ipsilateral cerebral WMLs were quantified with a semiautomatic method. Results: Mean WML volume significantly increased over a one-year period (6.52 vs. 6.97 mm3, P = 0.005). WML volume at baseline and WML progression did not significantly differ (P>0.05) between patients with 30-49% and patients with 50-69% stenosis. There was a significant correlation between total plaque volume and baseline ipsilateral WML volume (Spearman ¿ = 0.393, P = 0.005). There was no significant correlation between total plaque volume and ipsilateral WML progression. There were no significant associations between LRNC volume and WML volume at baseline and WML progression. WML volume at baseline and WML progression did not significantly differ between patients with a thick and intact FC and patients with a thin and/or ruptured FC. WML volume at baseline and WML progression also did not significantly differ between patients with and without IPH. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that carotid plaque burden is significantly associated with WML severity, but that there is no causal relationship between carotid plaque vulnerability and the occurrence of WMLs. © 2011 Kwee et al

Bio-nanotechnology application in wastewater treatment

The nanoparticles have received high interest in the field of medicine and water purification, however, the nanomaterials produced by chemical and physical methods are considered hazardous, expensive, and leave behind harmful substances to the environment. This chapter aimed to focus on green-synthesized nanoparticles and their medical applications. Moreover, the chapter highlighted the applicability of the metallic nanoparticles (MNPs) in the inactivation of microbial cells due to their high surface and small particle size. Modifying nanomaterials produced by green-methods is safe, inexpensive, and easy. Therefore, the control and modification of nanoparticles and their properties were also discussed

Circulating Progenitor Cell Count for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification: A Pooled Analysis

Background: Circulating progenitor cells (CPC) contribute to the homeostasis of the vessel wall, and a reduced CPC count predicts cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We tested the hypothesis that CPC count improves cardiovascular risk stratification and that this is modulated by low-grade inflammation. Methodology/Principal Findings: We pooled data from 4 longitudinal studies, including a total of 1,057 patients having CPC determined and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) collected. We recorded cardiovascular risk factors and high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level. Risk estimates were derived from Cox proportional hazard analyses. CPC count and/or hsCRP level were added to a reference model including age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, prevalent CVD, chronic renal failure (CRF) and medications. The sample was composed of high-risk individuals, as 76.3% had prevalent CVD and 31.6% had CRF. There were 331 (31.3%) incident MACE during an average 1.7±1.1 year follow-up time. CPC count was independently associated with incident MACE even after correction for hsCRP. According to C-statistics, models including CPC yielded a non-significant improvement in accuracy of MACE prediction. However, the integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) showed better performance of models including CPC compared to the reference model and models including hsCRP in identifying MACE. CPC count also yielded significant net reclassification improvements (NRI) for CV death, non-fatal AMI and other CV events. The effect of CPC was independent of hsCRP, but there was a significant more-than-additive interaction between low CPC count and raised hsCRP level in predicting incident MACE. Conclusions/Significance: In high risk individuals, a reduced CPC count helps identifying more patients at higher risk of MACE over the short term, especially in combination with a raised hsCRP level

Multiplicity Distributions and Charged-neutral Fluctuations

Results from the multiplicity distributions of inclusive photons and charged particles, scaling of particle multiplicities, event-by-event multiplicity fluctuations, and charged-neutral fluctuations in 158$\cdot A$ GeV Pb+Pb collisions are presented and discussed. A scaling of charged particle multiplicity as $N_{part}^{1.07\pm 0.05}$ and photons as $N_{part}^{1.12\pm 0.03}$ have been observed, indicating violation of naive wounded nucleon model. The analysis of localized charged-neutral fluctuation indicates a model-independent demonstration of non-statistical fluctuations in both charged particles and photons in limited azimuthal regions. However, no correlated charged-neutral fluctuations are observed.Comment: Talk given at the International Symposium on Nuclear Physics (ISNP-2000), Mumbai, India, 18-22 Dec 2000, Proceedings to be published in Pramana, Journal of Physic

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs

An Administrative Claims Model for Profiling Hospital 30-Day Mortality Rates for Pneumonia Patients

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia.Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998-2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998-2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25(th), 50(th), and 75(th) percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032).An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model

Urban Airborne Lead: X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy Establishes Soil as Dominant Source

BACKGROUND: Despite the dramatic decrease in airborne lead over the past three decades, there are calls for regulatory limits on this potent pediatric neurotoxin lower even than the new (2008) US Environmental Protection Agency standard. To achieve further decreases in airborne lead, what sources would need to be decreased and what costs would ensue? Our aim was to identify and, if possible, quantify the major species (compounds) of lead in recent ambient airborne particulate matter collected in El Paso, TX, USA. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used synchrotron-based XAFS (x-ray absorption fine structure) to identify and quantify the major Pb species. XAFS provides molecular-level structural information about a specific element in a bulk sample. Pb-humate is the dominant form of lead in contemporary El Paso air. Pb-humate is a stable, sorbed complex produced exclusively in the humus fraction of Pb-contaminated soils; it also is the major lead species in El Paso soils. Thus such soil must be the dominant source, and its resuspension into the air, the transfer process, providing lead particles to the local air. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Current industrial and commercial activity apparently is not a major source of airborne lead in El Paso, and presumably other locales that have eliminated such traditional sources as leaded gasoline. Instead, local contaminated soil, legacy of earlier anthropogenic Pb releases, serves as a long-term reservoir that gradually leaks particulate lead to the atmosphere. Given the difficulty and expense of large-scale soil remediation or removal, fugitive soil likely constrains a lower limit for airborne lead levels in many urban settings