Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning

The importance of major mergers in the build up of stellar mass in brightest cluster galaxies at z=1

Recent independent results from numerical simulations and observations have shown that brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) have increased their stellar mass by a factor of almost two between z~0.9 and z~0.2. The numerical simulations further suggest that more than half this mass is accreted through major mergers. Using a sample of 18 distant galaxy clusters with over 600 spectroscopically confirmed cluster members between them, we search for observational evidence that major mergers do play a significant role. We find a major merger rate of 0.38 +/- 0.14 mergers per Gyr at z~1. While the uncertainties, which stem from the small size of our sample, are relatively large, our rate is consistent with the results that are derived from numerical simulations. If we assume that this rate continues to the present day and that half of the mass of the companion is accreted onto the BCG during these mergers, then we find that this rate can explain the growth in the stellar mass of the BCGs that is observed and predicted by simulations. Major mergers therefore appear to be playing an important role, perhaps even the dominant one, in the build up of stellar mass in these extraordinary galaxies.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS. Reduced data will be made available through the ESO archiv

Serum albumin and mortality risk in a hyperendemic area of HCV infection in Japan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hypoalbuminemia has been shown to be associated with increased mortality. We reported a mass screening in 1990 of X town in Japan, which demonstrated a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This follow-up study determined, through a period of 12 years, whether serum albumin levels impact on the life prognosis of the residents of X town.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 509 subjects, 69 had died and 55 had moved to other regions by 2002. Therefore, we analyzed 454 people for whom we could confirm life and death between 1990 and 2002. Albumin levels were assigned to two groups, low (<4.0 g/L, group A) and normal (≥4.0 g/L, group B). Of the 454 subjects analyzed, 25 were in group A and 429 in group B and the mortality was 68.0% (17/25 cases, P < 0.00001 vs. group B) and 12.1% (52/429), respectively. Mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was 66.7% in group A (6/9 cases, P = 0.01 vs. group B) and 15.8% (3/19) in group B. According to multivariate analysis, five factors - 50 years or older, low albumin level (<4.0 g/L), abnormal AST level, history of smoking, and absence of alcohol consumption - were associated with death. The adjusted odds ratios for these five factors were 20.65, 10.79, 2.58, 2.24 and 2.08, respectively, and each was statistically significant.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We show that the serum albumin level is an independent risk factor for mortality from all causes in the residents of X town and an important prognostic indicator. Improvement of hypoalbuminaemia should be considered for improvement of prognosis.</p

The Importance of Major Mergers in the Build Up of Stellar Mass in Brightest Cluster Galaxies at \u3cem\u3ez\u3c/em\u3e = 1

Recent independent results from numerical simulations and observations have shown that brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) have increased their stellar mass by a factor of almost 2 between z ∼ 0.9 and z ∼ 0.2. The numerical simulations further suggest that more than half this mass is accreted through major mergers. Using a sample of 18 distant galaxy clusters with over 600 spectroscopically confirmed cluster members between them, we search for observational evidence that major mergers do play a significant role. We find a major merger rate of 0.38 ± 0.14 mergers per Gyr at z ∼ 1. While the uncertainties, which stem from the small size of our sample, are relatively large, our rate is consistent with the results that are derived from numerical simulations. If we assume that this rate continues to the present day and that half of the mass of the companion is accreted on to the BCG during these mergers, then we find that this rate can explain the growth in the stellar mass of the BCGs that is observed and predicted by simulations. Major mergers therefore appear to be playing an important role, perhaps even the dominant one, in the build up of stellar mass in these extraordinary galaxies

Retinoic Acid Mediates Regulation of Network Formation by COUP-TFII and VE-Cadherin Expression by TGFβ Receptor Kinase in Breast Cancer Cells

Tumor development, growth, and metastasis depend on the provision of an adequate vascular supply. This can be due to regulated angiogenesis, recruitment of circulating endothelial progenitors, and/or vascular transdifferentiation. Our previous studies showed that retinoic acid (RA) treatment converts a subset of breast cancer cells into cells with significant endothelial genotypic and phenotypic elements including marked induction of VE-cadherin, which was responsible for some but not all morphological changes. The present study demonstrates that of the endothelial-related genes induced by RA treatment, only a few were affected by knockdown of VE-cadherin, ruling it out as a regulator of the RA-induced endothelial genotypic switch. In contrast, knockdown of the RA-induced gene COUP-TFII prevented the formation of networks in Matrigel but had no effect on VE-cadherin induction or cell fusion. Two pan-kinase inhibitors markedly blocked RA-induced VE-cadherin expression and cell fusion. However, RA treatment resulted in a marked and broad reduction in tyrosine kinase activity. Several genes in the TGFβ signaling pathway were induced by RA, and specific inhibition of the TGFβ type I receptor blocked both RA-induced VE-cadherin expression and cell fusion. Together these data indicate a role for the TGFβ pathway and COUP-TFII in mediating the endothelial transdifferentiating properties of RA

Submillimetre Source Counts in the Fields of High-Redshift Galaxy Clusters

We present a submillimetre survey of seven high-z galaxy clusters (0.64<z<1.0) using the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) at 850 and 450 um. The targets, of similar richness and redshift, are selected from the Red-sequence Cluster Survey (RCS). We use this sample to investigate the apparent excess of submillimetre source counts in the direction of cluster fields compared to blank fields. The sample consists of three galaxy clusters that exhibit multiple optical arcs due to strong gravitational lensing, and a control group of four clusters with no apparent strong lensing. A tentative excess of 2.7-sigma is seen in the number density of submillimetre luminous galaxies (SMGs) within the lensing cluster fields compared to that in the control group. Ancillary observations at radio, mid-infrared, optical, and X-ray wavelengths allow for the identification of counterparts to many of the SMGs. Utilizing photometric redshifts, we conclude that at least three of the galaxies within the lensing fields have redshifts consistent with the clusters and implied infrared luminosities of ~10^12 Lsol. The existence of SMG cluster members may therefore be boosting source counts in the lensing cluster fields, which might be an effect of the dynamical state of those clusters. However, we find that the removal of potential cluster members from the counts analysis does not entirely eliminate the difference between the cluster samples. We also investigate possible occurrences of lensing between background SMGs and lower-z optical galaxies, though further observations are required to make any conclusive claims. Although the excess counts between the two cluster samples have not been unambiguously accounted for, these results warrant caution for interpreting submillimetre source counts in cluster fields and point source contamination for Sunyaev-Zel'dovich surveys. [Abridged]Comment: 33 pages, 23 figures, 5 tables; accepted for publication in MNRA

A submillimetre-bright z~3 overdensity behind a z~1 supercluster revealed by SCUBA-2 and Herschel

We present a wide-field (30 arcmin diameter) 850 μm Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array-2 map of the spectacular three-component merging supercluster, RCS 231953+00, at z = 0.9. The brightest submillimetre galaxy (SMG) in the field (S850 ≈ 12 mJy) is within 30 arcsec of one of the cluster cores (RCS 2319–C), and is likely to be a more distant, lensed galaxy. Interestingly, the wider field around RCS 2319–C reveals a local overdensity of SMGs, exceeding the average source density by a factor of 4.5, with a <1 per cent chance of being found in a random field. Utilizing Herschel observations from the Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver, we find that three of these SMGs have similar submillimetre colours. We fit their observed 250–850μm spectral energy distributions to estimate their redshift, yielding 2.5 < z < 3.5, and calculate prodigious star formation rates ranging from 500 to 2500 M⊙ yr−1. We speculate that these galaxies are either lensed SMGs, or signpost a physical structure at z ≈ 3: a ‘protocluster’ inhabited by young galaxies in a rapid phase of growth, destined to form the core of a massive galaxy cluster by z = 0.Peer reviewe

The evolution of dusty star formation in galaxy clusters to z = 1 : Spitzer infrared observations of the first red-sequence cluster survey

copyright American Astronomical SocietyWe present the results of an infrared (IR) study of high-redshift galaxy clusters with the MIPS camera on board the Spitzer Space Telescope. We have assembled a sample of 42 clusters from the Red-Sequence Cluster Survey-1 over the redshift range 0.3 <z <1.0 and spanning an approximate range in mass of 10 M. We statistically measure the number of IR-luminous galaxies in clusters above a fixed inferred IR luminosity of 2 × 10 M, assuming a star forming galaxy template, per unit cluster mass and find it increases to higher redshift. Fitting a simple power-law we measure evolution of (1 + z) over the range 0.3 <z <1.0. These results are tied to the adoption of a single star forming galaxy template; the presence of active galactic nuclei, and an evolution in their relative contribution to the mid-IR galaxy emission, will alter the overall number counts per cluster and their rate of evolution. Under the star formation assumption we infer the approximate total star formation rate per unit cluster mass (ΣSFR/ M cluster). The evolution is similar, with ΣSFR/ M cluster ∼ (1 + z). We show that this can be accounted for by the evolution of the IR-bright field population over the same redshift range; that is, the evolution can be attributed entirely to the change in the in-falling field galaxy population. We show that the ΣSFR/ Mcluster (binned over all redshift) decreases with increasing cluster mass with a slope (ΣSFR/) consistent with the dependence of the stellar-to-total mass per unit cluster mass seen locally. The inferred star formation seen here could produce ∼5%-10% of the total stellar mass in massive clusters at z = 0, but we cannot constrain the descendant population, nor how rapidly the star-formation must shut-down once the galaxies have entered the cluster environment. Finally, we show a clear decrease in the number of IR-bright galaxies per unit optical galaxy in the cluster cores, confirming star formation continues to avoid the highest density regions of the universe at z ∼ 0.75 (the average redshift of the high-redshift clusters). While several previous studies appear to show enhanced star formation in high-redshift clusters relative to the field we note that these papers have not accounted for the overall increase in galaxy or dark matter density at the location of clusters. Once this is done, clusters at z ∼ 0.75 have the same or less star formation per unit mass or galaxy as the field.Peer reviewe