Modified Profile Likelihood for Fixed-Effects Panel Data Models

We show how modified profile likelihood methods, developed in the statistical literature, may be effectively applied to estimate the structural parameters of econometric models for panel data, with a remarkable reduction of bias with respect to ordinary likelihood methods. Initially, the implementation of these methods is illustrated for general models for panel data including individual-specific fixed effects and then, in more detail, for the truncated linear regression model and dynamic regression models for binary data formulated along with different specifications. Simulation studies show the good behavior of the inference based on the modified profile likelihood, even when compared to an ideal, although infeasible, procedure (in which the fixed effects are known) and also to alternative estimators existing in the econometric literature. The proposed estimation methods are implemented in an R package that we make available to the reader

Investigating the influence of outcome utility on estimates of probability

This thesis is concerned with the rationality of human probability estimates, specifically the potential influence of outcome utility on estimates of probability. Intuitively, and normatively, the desirability of an outcome should not make that outcome seem more or less likely to occur. Chapter 1 provides a background to the subsequent empirical work by addressing some general issues surrounding a probabilistic approach to human reasoning. The major questions addressed are whether people represent uncertainty quantitatively and their competence at doing so, considered with reference to the status of extant biases in the literature on human probability judgment. Chapter 2 presents seven studies investigating the effect of negative utility on estimates of probability, using a minimal paradigm in which there is a visually defined, objective, probability. When there was an indication that future human action could influence the likelihood of an outcome (the outcome was, in some way, controllable), negative outcomes were rated as more likely to occur than neutral outcomes.. This moderating effect of control can be given a decision-theoretic explanation in terms of loss function asymmetry (e.g., Weber, 1994). Consequently, these effects can be understood as rational reactions to the recognition of the uncertainty of human cognition. Chapter 3 investigates the effects of positive utility using the same visual representation of probability. Across four studies, no effect of positive outcome utility was observed, a result consistent with the asymmetric loss function explanation proposed for the findings in Chapter 2. Chapter 4 presents a statistical-based critique of the 'unrealistic optimism' phenomenon (e.g., Weinstein, 1980). Additionally, two empirical studies failed to find any evidence that the 'unrealistic optimism' phenomenon is more than just a statistical artifact. The results from all three experimental chapters provide support for the contention that people's probability estimates are not systematically biased by utility considerations.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Anti-Hepatitis C Virus Serology in Immune Thrombocytopenia: A Retrospective Analysis in 101 Patients.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV), an RNA virus, is known to be the major cause of post-transfusion non-A, non-B hepatitis. HCV can induce several expressions of autoimmunity, including both serological abnormalities and clinical disorders. The relationship between the HCV infection and anti-platelet autoimmunity has been occasionally described, but is still far from well-defined. We retrospectively analysed 101 serum specimens, collected between 1988 and 1994, from patients with immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) for the presence of anti-HCV antibodies. Eighty-seven patients were classified as having idiopathic, and 14 secondary ITP (4 systemic lupus erythematosus, 9 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and 1 Evan's syndrome). Anti-HCV antibodies were determined by second generation tests (ELISA + RIBA). A specimen was considered positive for HCV antibodies in the presence of ELISA reactivity (sample optical density/cut-off > 1.00) accompanied by RIBA reactivity to at least one HCV specific antigen. 20 sera (20%) were positive, with a prevalence higher in secondary than in idiopathic ITP (43% vs. 16%, p < 0.05). No differences were found between anti-HCV positive and negative patients regarding gender, platelet count, platelet associated immunoglobulins, hepatitis B virus serology and liver enzyme profile. On the contrary, mean age was higher in the HCV positive vs HCV negative ones (58±18SD vs. 44±20yrs, p < 0.01), in keeping with the increasing prevalence of HCV infection with ageing. HCV positive patients, showed a poor response to treatment (platelet count lower than 50,000/μl after conventional medical therapy for immune thrombocytopenia) compared to anti-HCV negative ones, (50% versus 7.3%, p < 0.001). When we excluded patients who were exposed to risk factors for HCV infection after ITP diagnosis and before the serum collection, the prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies was not very different (17.6%) from that found in the series as a whole (19.8%). Our results seem to indicate that HCV infection may play a role in triggering several cases ITP, and moreover might constitute a negative prognostic factor for therapy response

Late growth stages and post-growth diffusion in organic epitaxy: PTCDA on Ag(111)

The late growth stages and the post-growth diffusion of crystalline organic thin films have been investigated for 3,4,9,10-perylenetetracarboxylic dianhydride (PTCDA) on Ag(111), a model system in organic epitaxy. In situ x-ray measurements at the anti-Bragg point during the growth show intensity oscillations followed by a time-independent intensity which is independent of the growth temperature. At T > 350 K, the intensity increases after growth up to a temperature-dependent saturation value due to a post-growth diffusion process. The time-independent intensity and the subsequent intensity recovery have been reproduced by models based on the morphology change as a function of the growth temperature. The morphology found after the post-growth diffusion processes has been studied by specular rod measurements.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in Surface Scienc

(Metallo)porphyrins for potential materials science applications

The bottom-up approach to replace existing devices by molecular-based systems is a subject that attracts permanently increasing interest. Molecular-based devices offer not only to miniaturize the device further, but also to benefit from advanced functionalities of deposited molecules. Furthermore, the molecules itself can be tailored to allow via their self-assembly the potential fabrication of devices with an application potential, which is still unforeseeable at this time. Herein, we review efforts to use discrete (metallo)porphyrins for the formation of (sub)monolayers by surface-confined polymerization, of monolayers formed by supramolecular recognition and of thin films formed by sublimation techniques. Selected physical properties of these systems are reported as well. The application potential of those ensembles of (metallo)porphyrins in materials science is discussed

Optical properties and electrical transport of thin films of terbium(III) bis(phthalocyanine) on cobalt

The optical and electrical properties of terbium(III) bis(phthalocyanine) (TbPc2) films on cobalt substrates were studied using variable angle spectroscopic ellipsometry (VASE) and current sensing atomic force microscopy (cs-AFM). Thin films of TbPc2 with a thickness between 18 nm and 87 nm were prepared by organic molecular beam deposition onto a cobalt layer grown by electron beam evaporation. The molecular orientation of the molecules on the metallic film was estimated from the analysis of the spectroscopic ellipsometry data. A detailed analysis of the AFM topography shows that the TbPc2 films consist of islands which increase in size with the thickness of the organic film. Furthermore, the cs-AFM technique allows local variations of the organic film topography to be correlated with electrical transport properties. Local current mapping as well as local I–V spectroscopy shows that despite the granular structure of the films, the electrical transport is uniform through the organic films on the microscale. The AFMbased electrical measurements allow the local charge carrier mobility of the TbPc2 thin films to be quantified with nanoscale resolution

Impact of tetrachloroethylene-contaminated drinking water on the risk of breast cancer: Using a dose model to assess exposure in a case-control study

BACKGROUND: A population-based case-control study was undertaken in 1997 to investigate the association between tetrachloroethylene (PCE) exposure from public drinking water and breast cancer among permanent residents of the Cape Cod region of Massachusetts. PCE, a volatile organic chemical, leached from the vinyl lining of certain water distribution pipes into drinking water from the late 1960s through the early 1980s. The measure of exposure in the original study, referred to as the relative delivered dose (RDD), was based on an amount of PCE in the tap water entering the home and estimated with a mathematical model that involved only characteristics of the distribution system. METHODS: In the current analysis, we constructed a personal delivered dose (PDD) model that included personal information on tap water consumption and bathing habits so that inhalation, ingestion, and dermal absorption were also considered. We reanalyzed the association between PCE and breast cancer and compared the results to the original RDD analysis of subjects with complete data. RESULTS: The PDD model produced higher adjusted odds ratios than the RDD model for exposures > 50(th )and >75(th )percentile when shorter latency periods were considered, and for exposures < 50(th )and >90(th )percentile when longer latency periods were considered. Overall, however, the results from the PDD analysis did not differ greatly from the RDD analysis. CONCLUSION: The inputs that most heavily influenced the PDD model were initial water concentration and duration of exposure. These variables were also included in the RDD model. In this study population, personal factors like bath and shower temperature, bathing frequencies and durations, and water consumption did not differ greatly among subjects, so including this information in the model did not significantly change subjects' exposure classification

(Metallo)porphyrins for potential materials science applications

The bottom-up approach to replace existing devices by molecular-based systems is a subject that attracts permanently increasing interest. Molecular-based devices offer not only to miniaturize the device further, but also to benefit from advanced functionalities of deposited molecules. Furthermore, the molecules itself can be tailored to allow via their self-assembly the potential fabrication of devices with an application potential, which is still unforeseeable at this time. Herein, we review efforts to use discrete (metallo)porphyrins for the formation of (sub)monolayers by surface-confined polymerization, of monolayers formed by supramolecular recognition and of thin films formed by sublimation techniques. Selected physical properties of these systems are reported as well. The application potential of those ensembles of (metallo)porphyrins in materials science is discussed