The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect

Permanent Tieback Retention System

This paper describes the design, construction, and monitoring of a permanent tieback retention system which permitted a 55-foot-deep excavation for an 16-story addition to the existing Good Samaritan Hospital in Cincinnati, Ohio. Tieback anchor capacity is developed in moderate-to-low-strength shale bedrock with intermittent thin limestone layers. The retention system provides temporary and permanent support for adjacent 5- and 10-story buildings and unbalanced lateral earth pressures due to sloping site topography. A permanently tiedback wall also supports a 17-to-33-foot-deep cut adjacent to the a-story parking structure in lieu of a conventional retaining wall

Ionospheric ion upwelling in the wake of flux transfer events at the dayside magnetopause

The effects of flux transfer events (FTE) on the dayside auroral ionosphere are studied, using a simple twin-vortex model of induced ionospheric plasma flow. It is shown that the predicted and observed velocities of these flows are sufficient to drive nonthermal plasma in the F region, not only within the newly opened flux tube of the FTE, but also on the closed, or "old" open, field lines around it. In fact, with the expected poleward neutral wind, the plasma is more highly nonthermal on the flanks of, but outside, the open flux tube: EISCAT observations indicate that plasma is indeed driven into nonthermal distributions in these regions. The nonthermal plasma is thereby subject to additional upforce due to the resulting ion temperature anisotropy and transient expansion due to Joule heating and also to ion accelerations associated with the FTE field aligned current system. Any upflows produced on closed field lines in the vicinity of the FTE are effectively bunched-up in the "wake" of the FTE. Observations from the AMPTE-UKS satellite at the magnetopause reveal ion upflows of energy ∼100 eV flowing out from the ionosphere on closed field lines which are only found in the wake of the FTE. Such flows are also only found shortly after two, out of all the FTEs observed by AMPTE-UKS. The outflow from the ionosphere is two orders of magnitude greater than predicted for the "classical" polar wind. It is shown that such ionospheric ion flows are only expected in association with FTEs on the magnetopause which are well removed from the sub-solar point-either towards dusk or, as in the UKS example discussed here, towards dawn. It is suggested that such ionospheric ions will only be observed if the center of the FTE open flux tube passes very close to the satellite. Consequently, we conclude the ion upflows presented here are probably driven by the second of two possible source FTEs and are observed at the satellite with a lag after the FTE which is less than their time-of-flight

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 2. Using geomagnetic and auroral data

We compare four sunspot-number data sequences against geomagnetic and terrestrial auroral observations. The comparisons are made for the original SIDC (Solar Influences Data Center) composite of Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [RISNv1], the group sunspot number [RG] by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys., 181, 491, 1998), the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] by Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., doi: 10.1007/s11207-015-0815-8, 2016), and the “corrected” sunspot number [RC] by Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard (J. Geophys. Res., 119, 5172, 2014). Each sunspot number is fitted with terrestrial observations, or parameters derived from terrestrial observations to be linearly proportional to sunspot number, over a 30-year calibration interval of 1982 - 2012. The fits are then used to compute test sequences, which extend further back in time and which are compared to RISNv1, RG, RBB, and RC. To study the long-term trends, comparisons are made using averages over whole solar cycles (minimum-to-minimum). The test variations are generated in four ways: i) using the IDV(1d) and IDV geomagnetic indices (for 1845 - 2013) fitted over the calibration interval using the various sunspot numbers and the phase of the solar cycle; ii) from the open solar flux (OSF) generated for 1845 - 2013 from four pairings of geomagnetic indices by Lockwood et al. (Ann. Geophys., 32, 383, 2014) and analysed using the OSF continuity model of Solanki, Schüssler, and Fligge (Nature, 408, 445, 2000) which employs a constant fractional OSF loss rate; iii) the same OSF data analysed using the OSF continuity model of Owens and Lockwood (J. Geophys. Res., 117, A04102, 2012) in which the fractional loss rate varies with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet and hence with the phase of the solar cycle; iv) the occurrence frequency of low-latitude aurora for 1780 - 1980 from the survey of Legrand and Simon (Ann. Geophys., 5, 161, 1987). For all cases, RBB exceeds the test terrestrial series by an amount that increases as one goes back in time

Simulating the Multi-Epoch Direct Detection Technique to Isolate the Thermal Emission of the Non-Transiting Hot Jupiter HD187123B

We report the 6.5$\sigma$ detection of water from the hot Jupiter HD187123b with a Keplerian orbital velocity $K_p$ of 53 $\pm$ 13 km/s. This high confidence detection is made using a multi-epoch, high resolution, cross correlation technique, and corresponds to a planetary mass of 1.4$^{+0.5}_{-0.3}$ $M_J$ and an orbital inclination of 21 $\pm$ 5$^{\circ}$. The technique works by treating the planet/star system as a spectroscopic binary and obtaining high signal-to-noise, high resolution observations at multiple points across the planet's orbit to constrain the system's binary dynamical motion. All together, seven epochs of Keck/NIRSPEC $L$-band observations were obtained, with five before the instrument upgrade and two after. Using high resolution SCARLET planetary and PHOENIX stellar spectral models, along with a line-by-line telluric absorption model, we were able to drastically increase the confidence of the detection by running simulations that could reproduce, and thus remove, the non-random structured noise in the final likelihood space well. The ability to predict multi-epoch results will be extremely useful for furthering the technique. Here, we use these simulations to compare three different approaches to combining the cross correlations of high resolution spectra and find that the Zucker 2003 log(L) approach is least affected by unwanted planet/star correlation for our HD187123 data set. Furthermore, we find that the same total S/N spread across an orbit in many, lower S/N epochs rather than fewer, higher S/N epochs could provide a more efficient detection. This work provides a necessary validation of multi-epoch simulations which can be used to guide future observations and will be key to studying the atmospheres of further separated, non-transiting exoplanets.Comment: Accepted to AJ, 14 pages, 10 figure

The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the sun into Maunder Minimum conditions

The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R^2_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential phi for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and phi, R^2_L (t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t = 4 and 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number R_Z is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean R_G are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi

Detection of Water Vapor in the Thermal Spectrum of the Non-Transiting Hot Jupiter upsilon Andromedae b

The upsilon Andromedae system was the first multi-planet system discovered orbiting a main sequence star. We describe the detection of water vapor in the atmosphere of the innermost non-transiting gas giant ups~And~b by treating the star-planet system as a spectroscopic binary with high-resolution, ground-based spectroscopy. We resolve the signal of the planet's motion and break the mass-inclination degeneracy for this non-transiting planet via deep combined flux observations of the star and the planet. In total, seven epochs of Keck NIRSPEC $L$ band observations, three epochs of Keck NIRSPEC short wavelength $K$ band observations, and three epochs of Keck NIRSPEC long wavelength $K$ band observations of the ups~And~system were obtained. We perform a multi-epoch cross correlation of the full data set with an atmospheric model. We measure the radial projection of the Keplerian velocity ($K_P$ = 55 $\pm$ 9 km/s), true mass ($M_b$ = 1.7 $^{+0.33}_{-0.24}$ $M_J$), and orbital inclination \big($i_b$ = 24 $\pm$ 4$^{\circ}$\big), and determine that the planet's opacity structure is dominated by water vapor at the probed wavelengths. Dynamical simulations of the planets in the ups~And~system with these orbital elements for ups~And~b show that stable, long-term (100 Myr) orbital configurations exist. These measurements will inform future studies of the stability and evolution of the ups~And~system, as well as the atmospheric structure and composition of the hot Jupiter.Comment: Accepted to A

Affective iconic words benefit from additional sound–meaning integration in the left amygdala

Recent studies have shown that a similarity between sound and meaning of a word (i.e., iconicity) can help more readily access the meaning of that word, but the neural mechanisms underlying this beneficial role of iconicity in semantic processing remain largely unknown. In an fMRI study, we focused on the affective domain and examined whether affective iconic words (e.g., high arousal in both sound and meaning) activate additional brain regions that integrate emotional information from different domains (i.e., sound and meaning). In line with our hypothesis, affective iconic words, compared to their non‐iconic counterparts, elicited additional BOLD responses in the left amygdala known for its role in multimodal representation of emotions. Functional connectivity analyses revealed that the observed amygdalar activity was modulated by an interaction of iconic condition and activations in two hubs representative for processing sound (left superior temporal gyrus) and meaning (left inferior frontal gyrus) of words. These results provide a neural explanation for the facilitative role of iconicity in language processing and indicate that language users are sensitive to the interaction between sound and meaning aspect of words, suggesting the existence of iconicity as a general property of human language

Location and characteristics of the reconnection X-line deduced from low-altitude satellite and radar observations

We present an analysis of a cusp ion step observed between two poleward-moving events of enhanced ionospheric electron temperature. From the computed variation of the reconnection rate and the onset times of the associated ionospheric events, the distance between the satellite and the X-line can be estimated, but with a large uncertainty due to that in the determination of the low-energy cut-off of the ion velocity distribution function, f(E). Nevertheless, analysis of the time series f(t) shows the reconnection site to be on the dayside magnetopause, consistent with the pulsating cusp model, and the best estimate of the X-line location is 13 R(E) from the satellite. The ion precipitation is used to reconstruct the field-parallel part of the Cowley-D ion distribution function injected into the open low latitude boundary layer (LLBL) in the vicinity of the X-line. From this the Alfven speed, plasma density, magnetic field, parallel ion temperature, and flow velocity of the magnetosheath near the X-line can be derived

Ground- and Space-based Detection of the Thermal Emission Spectrum of the Transiting Hot Jupiter KELT-2Ab

We describe the detection of water vapor in the atmosphere of the transiting hot Jupiter KELT-2Ab by treating the star-planet system as a spectroscopic binary with high-resolution, ground-based spectroscopy. We resolve the signal of the planet's motion with deep combined flux observations of the star and the planet. In total, six epochs of Keck NIRSPEC $L$-band observations were obtained, and the full data set was subjected to a cross correlation analysis with a grid of self-consistent atmospheric models. We measure a radial projection of the Keplerian velocity, $K_P$, of 148 $\pm$ 7 km s$^{-1}$, consistent with transit measurements, and detect water vapor at 3.8$\sigma$. We combine NIRSPEC $L$-band data with $Spitzer$ IRAC secondary eclipse data to further probe the metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen ratio of KELT-2Ab's atmosphere. While the NIRSPEC analysis provides few extra constraints on the $Spitzer$ data, it does provide roughly the same constraints on metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen ratio. This bodes well for future investigations of the atmospheres of non-transiting hot Jupiters.Comment: accepted to A