Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides as a tool for debris flow early warning systems

Abstract. Real-time assessment of debris-flow hazard is fundamental for developing warning systems that can mitigate risk. A convenient method to assess the possible occurrence of a debris flow is to compare measured and forecasted rainfalls to critical rainfall threshold (CRT) curves. Empirical derivation of the CRT from the analysis of past events' rainfall characteristics is not possible when the database of observed debris flows is poor or when the environment changes with time. For debris flows and mud flows triggered by shallow landslides or debris avalanches, the above limitations may be overcome through the methodology presented. In this work the CRT curves are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations, based on the infinite-slope stability model in which slope instability is governed by the increase in groundwater pressure due to rainfall. The effect of rainfall infiltration on landside occurrence is modelled through a reduced form of the Richards equation. The range of rainfall durations for which the method can be correctly employed is investigated and an equation is derived for the lower limit of the range. A large number of calculations are performed combining different values of rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration of event rainfall and intensity of antecedent rainfall). For each combination of rainfall characteristics, the percentage of the basin that is unstable is computed. The obtained database is opportunely elaborated to derive CRT curves. The methodology is implemented and tested in a small basin of the Amalfi Coast (South Italy). The comparison among the obtained CRT curves and the observed rainfall amounts, in a playback period, gives a good agreement. Simulations are performed with different degree of detail in the soil parameters characterization. The comparison shows that the lack of knowledge about the spatial variability of the parameters may greatly affect the results. This problem is partially mitigated by the use of a Monte Carlo approach

Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides as a tool for debris flow early warning systems

Real-time assessment of debris-flow hazard is fundamental for developing warning systems that can mitigate risk. A convenient method to assess the possible occurrence of a debris flow is to compare measured and forecasted rainfalls to critical rainfall threshold (CRT) curves. Empirical derivation of the CRT from the analysis of past events' rainfall characteristics is not possible when the database of observed debris flows is poor or when the environment changes with time. For debris flows and mud flows triggered by shallow landslides or debris avalanches, the above limitations may be overcome through the methodology presented. In this work the CRT curves are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations, based on the infinite-slope stability model in which slope instability is governed by the increase in groundwater pressure due to rainfall. The effect of rainfall infiltration on landside occurrence is modelled through a reduced form of the Richards equation. The range of rainfall durations for which the method can be correctly employed is investigated and an equation is derived for the lower limit of the range. A large number of calculations are performed combining different values of rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration of event rainfall and intensity of antecedent rainfall). For each combination of rainfall characteristics, the percentage of the basin that is unstable is computed. The obtained database is opportunely elaborated to derive CRT curves. The methodology is implemented and tested in a small basin of the Amalfi Coast (South Italy). The comparison among the obtained CRT curves and the observed rainfall amounts, in a playback period, gives a good agreement. Simulations are performed with different degree of detail in the soil parameters characterization. The comparison shows that the lack of knowledge about the spatial variability of the parameters may greatly affect the results. This problem is partially mitigated by the use of a Monte Carlo approach

Chlamydophila pneumoniae infection in patients undergoing carotid artery stent.

Although several reports have correlated Chlamydophila pneumoniae (CP) infection with carotid endarterectomy and coronary stent, no data have been reported on the potential relationship between this pathogen and carotid artery stenting (CAS). Hence, we evaluated 47 subjects, 27 symptomatic and 20 asymptomatic, before CAS intervention and during the follow up, for the presence of CP DNA and anti-CP antibodies, including chlamydial HSP60 (Cp-HSP60). Before stent placement, CP DNA was detected exclusively in symptomatic patients, all of whom were also positive for CP IgG and IgA and 85.7% of them also had CP-HSP60 antibodies. At the follow-up, all CP DNA positive and 11 out of the 13 symptomatic patients with Cp-HSP60 antibodies became negatives. In contrast, no change was observed for CP- IgA antibodies. Despite the small number of patients, the present study advocates an important role of CP infection in symptomatic patients with carotid artery disease. Our findings also suggest that stent placement and/or therapy might have a role in favouring resolution of inflammation, though not affecting persistence of CP infection

Development of preliminary assessment tools to evaluate debris flow risks

In the framework of the IMPRINTS European Research Project (FP7), a toolbox for fast assessment of debris flow hazard has been developed. The aim of this toolbox is to implement different existing models inside a common package useful for a fast evaluation of potential hazard. The initiation and propagation of the debris flow is included. One of the requirements of the projects is to define different scenarios with different detail levels in data input. As an example of this, the results could be obtained just using topographical data or improve accuracy by adding geological and hydrological data.Postprint (published version

Antifibrotic treatment response and prognostic predictors in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and exposed to occupational dust

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is an aggressive interstitial lung disease with an unpredictable course. Occupational dust exposure may contribute to IPF onset, but its impact on antifibrotic treatment and disease prognosis is still unknown. We evaluated clinical characteristics, respiratory function and prognostic predictors at diagnosis and at 12 month treatment of pirfenidone or nintedanib in IPF patients according to occupational dust exposure. METHODS: A total of 115 IPF patients were recruited. At diagnosis, we collected demographic, clinical characteristics, occupational history. Pulmonary function tests were performed and two prognostic indices [Gender, Age, Physiology (GAP) and Composite Physiologic Index (CPI)] calculated, both at diagnosis and after the 12 month treatment. The date of long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) initiation was recorded during the entire follow-up (mean = 37.85, range 12-60 months). RESULTS: At baseline, patients exposed to occupational dust [≥ 10 years (n = 62)] showed a lower percentage of graduates (19.3% vs 54.7%; p = 0.04) and a higher percentage of asbestos exposure (46.8% vs 18.9%; p 0.002) than patients not exposed [< 10 years (n = 53)]. Both at diagnosis and after 12 months of antifibrotics, no significant differences for respiratory function and prognostic predictors were found. The multivariate analysis confirmed that occupational dust exposure did not affect neither FVC and DLCO after 12 month therapy nor the timing of LTOT initiation. CONCLUSION: Occupational dust exposure lasting 10 years or more does not seem to influence the therapeutic effects of antifibrotics and the prognostic predictors in patients with IPF

Lice, rodents, and many hopes: a rare disease in a young refugee

Borrelia recurrentis infection is a louse-borne disease and Leptospirosis is a rat-borne zoonosis, both endemic in areas characterized by a low hygiene condition. This is the first case of life-threatening Borrelia recurrentis and Leptospira species co-infectio

Assessing variations of extreme indices inducing weather-hazards on critical infrastructures over Europe?the INTACT framework

Extreme weather events are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of global warming. This poses challenging problems for critical infrastructures, which could be dramatically affected (or disrupted), and may require adaptation plans to the changing climate conditions. The INTACT FP7-European project evaluated the resilience and vulnerability of critical infrastructures to extreme weather events in a climate change scenario. To identify changes in the hazard induced by climate change, appropriate extreme weather indicators (EWIs), as proxies of the main atmospheric features triggering events with high impact on the infrastructures, were defined for a number of case studies and different approaches were analyzed to obtain local climate projections. We considered the influence of weighting and bias correction schemes on the delta approach followed to obtain the resulting projections, considering data from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble of regional future climate scenarios over Europe. The aim is to provide practitioners, decision-makers, and administrators with appropriate methods to obtain actionable and plausible results on local/regional future climate scenarios. Our results show a small sensitivity to the weighting approach and a large sensitivity to bias correcting the future projections.This work has been carried out within the activities of INTACT project, receiving funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° FP7-SEC-2013-1-606799. The information and views set out in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5

COVID-19 integrated surveillance in Italy: Outputs and related activities

OBJECTIVES: to describe the integrated surveillance system of COVID-19 in Italy, to illustrate the outputs used to return epidemiological information on the spread of the epidemic to the competent public health bodies and to the Italian popu-lation, and to describe how the surveillance data contributes to the ongoing weekly regional monitoring and risk assessment system. METHODS: the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system is the result of a close and continuous collaboration between the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS), the Italian Ministry of Health, and the regional and local health authorities. Through a web platform, it collects individual data of laboratory confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and gathers information on their residence, laboratory diagnosis, hospital-isation, clinical status, risk factors, and outcome. Results, for different levels of aggregation and risk categories, are published daily and weekly on the ISS website, and made avail-able to national and regional public health authorities; these results contribute one of the information sources of the regional monitoring and risk assessment system. RESULTS: the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system mon-itors the space-time distribution of cases and their character-istics. Indicators used in the weekly regional monitoring and risk assessment system include process indicators on com-pleteness and results indicators on weekly trends of newly di-agnosed cases per Region. CONCLUSIONS: the outputs of the integrated surveillance system for COVID-19 provide timely information to health authorities and to the general population on the evolution of the epidemic in Italy. They also contribute to the continuous re-assessment of risk related to transmission and impact of the epidemic thus contributing to the management of COV-ID-19 in Italy