A geostatistical approach for dynamic life tables: The effect of mortality on remaining lifetime and annuities

Dynamic life tables arise as an alternative to the standard (static) life table, with the aim of incorporating the evolution of mortality over time. The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for projected mortality rates in the US is one of the most outstanding and has been used a great deal since then. Different versions of the model have been developed but all of them, together with other parametric models, consider the observed mortality rates as independent observations. This is a difficult hypothesis to justify when looking at the graph of the residuals obtained with any of these methods. Methods of adjustment and prediction based on geostatistical techniques which exploit the dependence structure existing among the residuals are an alternative to classical methods. Dynamic life tables can be considered as two-way tables on a grid equally spaced in either the vertical (age) or horizontal (year) direction, and the data can be decomposed into a deterministic large-scale variation (trend) plus a stochastic small-scale variation (residuals). Our contribution consists of applying geostatistical techniques for estimating the dependence structure of the mortality data and for prediction purposes, also including the influence of the year of birth (cohort). We compare the performance of this new approach with different versions of the Lee–Carter model. Additionally, we obtain bootstrap confidence intervals for predicted qxt resulting from applying both methodologies, and we study their influence on the predictions of e65t and a65t . © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.This work was partially supported by grants from the MEyC (Ministerio de Educacin y Ciencia, Spain project MTM2007-62923 and project MTM2008-05152) The research by Ana Debon and Francisco Martinez-Ruiz has also been partially supported by a grant from the Generalitat Valenciana (grant No GVPRE/2008/103)Debón Aucejo, AM.; Martinez Ruiz, F.; Montes, F. (2010). A geostatistical approach for dynamic life tables: The effect of mortality on remaining lifetime and annuities. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 47(3):327-336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2010.07.007S32733647

Temporal evolution of some mortality indicators: Application to Spanish data

This is an author's accepted manuscript of an article published in: “North American Actuarial Journal"; Volume 16, Issue 3, 2012; copyright Taylor & Francis; available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2012.10590647[EN] In Spain, as in other developed countries, significant changes in mortality patterns have occurred during the 20th and 21st centuries. One reflection of these changes is life expectancy, which has improved in this period, although the robustness of this indicator prevents these changes from being of the same order as those for the probability of death. If, moreover, we bear in mind that life expectancy offers no information as to whether this improvement is the same for different age groups, it is important and necessary to turn to other mortality indicators whose past and future evolution in Spain we are going to study. These indicators are applied to Spanish mortality data for the period 1981–2008, for the age range 0–99. To study its future evolution, the mortality ratios have to be projected using an adequate methodology, namely, the Lee-Carter model. Con- fidence intervals for these predictions can be calculated using the methodology that Lee and Carter apply in their original article for expected lifetime confidence intervals, but they take into account only the error in the prediction of the mortality index obtained from the ARIMA model adjusted to its temporal series, excluding other sources of error such as that introduced by estimations of the other parameters in the model. That is why bootstrap procedures are preferred, permitting the combination of all sources of uncertainty.Support for the research presented in this paper was provided by a grants from MeyC (Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia, Spain), projects MTM2010-14961 and MTM2008-05152. This article was finished in two research stays at Cass Business School (London) funded by ‘‘Jose´ Castillejo’’ Program, Universitat Polite`cnica de Vale`ncia (PAID-00-12) and the Faculty de Administracio´n y Direccio´n de Empresas. We appreciate this funding and the opportunity to discuss our ideas with faculty and doctoral students Cass Business School.Debón Aucejo, AM.; Martínez Ruiz, F.; Montes, F. (2012). Temporal evolution of some mortality indicators: Application to Spanish data. North American Actuarial Journal. 16(3):364-377. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2012.10590647S36437716

Tracking mite trophic interactions by multiplex PCR

BACKGROUND A thorough knowledge of trophic webs in agroecosystems is essential to achieve successful biological pest control. Phytoseiid mites are the most efficient natural enemies of tetranychid mites, which include several important pests worldwide. Nevertheless, phytoseiids may feed on other food sources including other microarthropods, plants and even other phytoseiids (intraguild predation), which can interfere with biological control services. Molecular gut content analysis is a valuable tool for characterizing trophic interactions, mainly when working on microarthropods such as mites. We have designed new primers for Phytoseiidae, Tetranychidae and Thysanoptera identification and they have been multiplexed in a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) together with universal plant primers. Additionally, we have estimated prey DNA detectability success over time (DS50) considering the most probable events in Spanish citrus orchards: the phytoseiid Euseius stipulatus as a predator, the phytoseiid Phytoseiulus persimilis as intraguild prey, and the thrips Frankliniella occidentalis and Anaphothrips obscurus as alternative prey to Tetranychus urticae. RESULTS The designed multiplex PCR allows the identification of phytoseiids (both predator and intraguild prey) and detects alternative food sources mentioned above in the gut of the phytoseiid predator. DS50 for E. stipulatus as the predator were 1.3, 2.3 and 18.7 h post feeding for F. occidentalis, A. obscurus and P. persimilis as prey, respectively. CONCLUSION Tracking of the trophic relationships within the citrus acarofauna, and the unveiling of the role of alternative food sources will pave the way for enhancing T. urticae biological control. This multiplex PCR approach could be applicable for these purposes in similar agroecosystems

Bioluminescence Imaging of Angiogenesis in a Murine Orthotopic Pancreatic Cancer Model

Angiogenesis is essential for physiological processes as well as for carcinogenesis. New approaches to cancer therapy include targeting angiogenesis. One target is VEGF-A and its receptor VEGFR2. In this study, we sought to investigate pancreatic cancer angiogenesis in a genetically modified VEGFR2-luc-KI mouse

Deep learning-based phenotyping reclassifies combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma.

Primary liver cancer arises either from hepatocytic or biliary lineage cells, giving rise to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICCA). Combined hepatocellular- cholangiocarcinomas (cHCC-CCA) exhibit equivocal or mixed features of both, causing diagnostic uncertainty and difficulty in determining proper management. Here, we perform a comprehensive deep learning-based phenotyping of multiple cohorts of patients. We show that deep learning can reproduce the diagnosis of HCC vs. CCA with a high performance. We analyze a series of 405 cHCC-CCA patients and demonstrate that the model can reclassify the tumors as HCC or ICCA, and that the predictions are consistent with clinical outcomes, genetic alterations and in situ spatial gene expression profiling. This type of approach could improve treatment decisions and ultimately clinical outcome for patients with rare and biphenotypic cancers such as cHCC-CCA

Gender gaps in education

This chapter reviews the growing body of research in economics which concentrates on the education gender gap and its evolution, over time and across countries. The survey first focuses on gender differentials in the historical period that roughly goes from 1850 to the 1940s and documents the deep determinants of the early phase of female education expansion, including preindustrial conditions, religion, and family and kinship patterns. Next, the survey describes the stylized facts of contemporaneous gender gaps in education, from the 1950s to the present day, accounting for several alternative measures of attainment and achievement and for geographic and temporal differentiations. The determinants of the gaps are then summarized, while keeping a strong emphasis on an historical perspective and disentangling factors related to the labor market, family formation, psychological elements, and societal cultural norms. A discussion follows of the implications of the education gender gap for multiple realms, from economic growth to family life, taking into account the potential for reverse causation. Special attention is devoted to the persistency of gender gaps in the STEM and economics fields

Gender Gaps in Education

This chapter reviews the growing body of research in economics which concentrates on the education gender gap and its evolution, over time and across countries. The survey first focuses on gender differentials in the historical period that roughly goes from 1850 to the 1940s and documents the deep determinants of the early phase of female education expansion, including preindustrial conditions, religion, and family and kinship patterns. Next, the survey describes the stylized facts of contemporaneous gender gaps in education, from the 1950s to the present day, accounting for several alternative measures of attainment and achievement and for geographic and temporal differentiations. The determinants of the gaps are then summarized, while keeping a strong emphasis on an historical perspective and disentangling factors related to the labor market, family formation, psychological elements, and societal cultural norms. A discussion follows of the implications of the education gender gap for multiple realms, from economic growth to family life, taking into account the potential for reverse causation. Special attention is devoted to the persistency of gender gaps in the STEM and economics fields

Optimal Timing of Administration of Direct-Acting Antivirals for Patients with Hepatitis C-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Liver Transplantation

Objective: To investigate the optimal timing of direct acting antiviral (DAA) administration in patients with hepatitis C-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing liver transplantation (LT). Summary of Background Data: In patients with hepatitis C (HCV) associated HCC undergoing LT, the optimal timing of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) administration to achieve sustained virologic response (SVR) and improved oncologic outcomes remains a topic of much debate. Methods: The United States HCC LT Consortium (2015–2019) was reviewed for patients with primary HCV-associated HCC who underwent LT and received DAA therapy at 20 institutions. Primary outcomes were SVR and HCC recurrence-free survival (RFS). Results: Of 857 patients, 725 were within Milan criteria. SVR was associated with improved 5-year RFS (92% vs 77%, P < 0.01). Patients who received DAAs pre-LT, 0–3 months post-LT, and ≥3 months post-LT had SVR rates of 91%, 92%, and 82%, and 5-year RFS of 93%, 94%, and 87%, respectively. Among 427 HCV treatment-naïve patients (no previous interferon therapy), patients who achieved SVR with DAAs had improved 5-year RFS (93% vs 76%, P < 0.01). Patients who received DAAs pre-LT, 0–3 months post-LT, and ≥3 months post-LT had SVR rates of 91%, 93%, and 78% (P < 0.01) and 5-year RFS of 93%, 100%, and 83% (P = 0.01). Conclusions: The optimal timing of DAA therapy appears to be 0 to 3 months after LT for HCV-associated HCC, given increased rates of SVR and improved RFS. Delayed administration after transplant should be avoided. A prospective randomized controlled trial is warranted to validate these results