Policing the Cyber Threat: Exploring the threat from Cyber Crime and the ability of local Law Enforcement to respond

The landscape in which UK policing operates today is a dynamic one, and growing threats such as the proliferation of cyber crime are increasing the demand on police resources. The response to cyber crime by national and regional law enforcement agencies has been robust, with significant investment in mitigating against, and tackling cyber threats. However, at a local level, police forces have to deal with an unknown demand, whilst trying to come to terms with new crime types, terminology and criminal techniques which are far from traditional. This paper looks to identify the demand from cyber crime in one police force in the United Kingdom, and whether there is consistency in the recording of crime. As well as this, it looks to understand whether the force can deal with cyber crime from the point of view of the Police Officers and Police Staff in the organisation

Meta-analysis of global soil data identifies robust indicators for short-term changes in soil organic carbon stock following land use change

The restoration of degraded lands and minimizing the degradation of productive lands are at the forefront of many environmental land management schemes around the world. A key indicator of soil productivity is soil organic carbon (SOC), which influences the provision of most soil ecosystem services. A major challenge in direct measurement of changes in SOC stock is that it is difficult to detect within a short timeframe relevant to land managers. In this study, we sought to identify suitable early indicators of changes in SOC stock and their drivers. A meta-analytical approach was used to synthesize global data on the impacts of arable land conversion to other uses on total SOC stock, 12 different SOC fractions and three soil structural properties. The conversion of arable lands to forests and grasslands accounted for 91% of the available land use change datasets used for the meta-analysis and were mostly from Asia and Europe. Land use change from arable lands led to 50% (32-68%) mean increase in both labile (microbial biomass C and particulate organic C – POC) and passive (microaggregate, 53-250 µm diameter; and small macroaggregate, 250-2000 µm diameter) SOC fractions as well as soil structural stability. There was also 37% (24-50%) mean increase in total SOC stock in the experimental fields where the various SOC fractions were measured. Only the POC and the organic carbon stored in small macroaggregates had strong correlation with total SOC: our findings reveal these two SOC fractions were predominantly controlled by biomass input to the soil rather than climatic factors and are thus suitable candidate indicators of short-term changes in total SOC stock. Further field studies are recommended to validate the predictive power of the equations we developed in this study and the use of the SOC metrics under different land use change scenarios

A national perspective on exposure to essential surgical procedures among medical trainees in Nigeria: a cross-sectional survey and recommendations

Background In sub-Saharan Africa, recent graduates from medical school provide more direct surgical and procedural care to patients than their counterparts from the Global North. Nigeria has no nationally representative data on the procedures performed by trainees before graduation from medical school and their confidence in performing these procedures upon graduation has also not been evaluated. Methods We performed an internet-based, cross-sectional survey of recent medical school graduates from 15 accredited Federal, State, and private Nigerian medical schools spanning six geopolitical zones. Essential surgical procedures, bedside interventions and three Bellwether procedures were incorporated into the survey. Self-reported confidence immediately after graduation was calculated and compared using cumulative confidence scores with subgroup analysis of results by type and location of institution. Qualitative analysis of free text recommendations by participants was performed using the constant comparative method in grounded theory. Results Four hundred ninety-nine recent graduates from 6 geopolitical zones participated, representing 15 out of a total of 44 medical schools in Nigeria. Male to female ratio was 2:1, and most respondents (59%) graduated from Federal institutions. Students had greatest practical mean exposure to bedside procedures like intravenous access and passing urethral foley catheters and were most confident performing these. Less than 23% had performed over 10 of any of the assessed procedures. They had least exposures to chest tube insertion (0.24/person), caesarean Sect. (0.12/person), and laparotomy (0.09/person). Recent graduates from Federal institutions had less procedural exposure in urethral catheterization (p  Respondents that studied in the underserved North-East and North-West performed the highest median number of procedures prior to graduation. Cumulative confidence scores were low across all graduates (maximum 25/60), but highest in graduates from Northern Nigeria and private institutions. Graduates recommended prioritizing medical students over senior trainees, using simulation-based training and constructive individualized non-toxic feedback from faculty. Conclusion Nigerian medical students have poor exposure to procedures and low confidence in performing basic procedures after graduation. More attention should be placed on training for essential surgeries and procedures in medical schools

Online cognitive-behavioral intervention for stress among English as a second language teachers: implications for school health policy

IntroductionStress is one of the highest-ranked work-related injuries worldwide and has become almost universal among the Nigerian workforce. English as a Second Language (ESL) teachers face enormous work-related threats that lead to occupational stress. When ESL teachers are stressed, students' language development and entire educational progress are at risk. This is mostly underscored as English, though a second language, serves as the language of instruction in Nigerian schools. As a result, managing occupational stress is particularly important for ESL teachers, as it is among the definitive ways of improving ESL learning and overall educational outcomes. This study examined the effectiveness of online cognitive behavioral intervention (o-CBI) in lowering occupational stress among ESL teachers.MethodESL teachers with at least 1 year of experience were among the participants (N = 89). Participants were divided into two groups: the intervention group (N = 44) and the control group (N = 45). For 9 weeks, the experimental group engaged in nine sessions of 2 h of the o-CBI program. The Single Item Stress Questionnaire (SISQ), the Satisfaction with Therapy and Therapist Scale-Revised (STTS–R), and the Teachers' Stress Inventory (TSI) were the measures used to collect primary and secondary data. Four sets of data were collected at baseline, post-test, and follow-up 1 and 2 evaluations. The data were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, t-test statistics, repeated measures ANOVA, and bar charts.Results and discussionCompared to the control group, the o-CBT group had significantly lower TSI scores at the post-test (Time 2) and follow-up evaluations (Times 3 and 4). Between pre-, post-, and follow-up 1 and 2 measurements, there were no significant differences in occupational stress index scores in the control group. It was concluded that o-CBI is effective in job-stress treatment among ESL teachers. In addition, implications for school health policy are discussed. The o-CBI for occupational stress was well received by the participants, showing high acceptability among ESL teachers

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Reduced Mitochondrial Membrane Potential is a Late Adaptation of Trypanosoma brucei brucei to Isometamidium Preceded by Mutations in the γ Subunit of the F1Fo- ATPase

Background: Isometamidium is the main prophylactic drug used to prevent the infection of livestock with trypanosomes that cause Animal African Trypanosomiasis. As well as the animal infective trypanosome species, livestock can also harbor the closely related human infective subspecies T. b. gambiense and T. b. rhodesiense. Resistance to isometamidium is a growing concern, as is cross-resistance to the diamidine drugs diminazene and pentamidine. Methodology/Principal Findings: Two isometamidium resistant Trypanosoma brucei clones were generated (ISMR1 and ISMR15), being 7270- and 16,000-fold resistant to isometamidium, respectively, which retained their ability to grow in vitro and establish an infection in mice. Considerable cross-resistance was shown to ethidium bromide and diminazene, with minor cross-resistance to pentamidine. The mitochondrial membrane potentials of both resistant cell lines were significantly reduced compared to the wild type. The net uptake rate of isometamidium was reduced 2-3-fold but isometamidium efflux was similar in wild-type and resistant lines. Fluorescence microscopy and PCR analysis revealed that ISMR1 and ISMR15 had completely lost their kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) and both lines carried a mutation in the nuclearly encoded γ subunit gene of F1 ATPase, truncating the protein by 22 amino acids. The mutation compensated for the loss of the kinetoplast in bloodstream forms, allowing near-normal growth, and conferred considerable resistance to isometamidium and ethidium as well as significant resistance to diminazene and pentamidine, when expressed in wild type trypanosomes. Subsequent exposure to either isometamidium or ethidium led to rapid loss of kDNA and a further increase in isometamidium resistance. Conclusions/Significance: Sub-lethal exposure to isometamidium gives rise to viable but highly resistant trypanosomes that, depending on sub-species, are infective to humans and cross-resistant to at least some diamidine drugs. The crucial mutation is in the F1 ATPase γ subunit, which allows loss of kDNA and results in a reduction of the mitochondrial membrane potential

Adding 6 months of androgen deprivation therapy to postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of short-course versus no androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised controlled trial

Background Previous evidence indicates that adjuvant, short-course androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improves metastasis-free survival when given with primary radiotherapy for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the value of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy is unclear. Methods RADICALS-HD was an international randomised controlled trial to test the efficacy of ADT used in combination with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to radiotherapy alone (no ADT) or radiotherapy with 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT), using monthly subcutaneous gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogue injections, daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as distant metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. Standard survival analysis methods were used, accounting for randomisation stratification factors. The trial had 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 80% to 86% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·67). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00541047. Findings Between Nov 22, 2007, and June 29, 2015, 1480 patients (median age 66 years [IQR 61–69]) were randomly assigned to receive no ADT (n=737) or short-course ADT (n=743) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 121 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 9·0 years (IQR 7·1–10·1), metastasis-free survival events were reported for 268 participants (142 in the no ADT group and 126 in the short-course ADT group; HR 0·886 [95% CI 0·688–1·140], p=0·35). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 79·2% (95% CI 75·4–82·5) in the no ADT group and 80·4% (76·6–83·6) in the short-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 121 (17%) of 737 participants in the no ADT group and 100 (14%) of 743 in the short-course ADT group (p=0·15), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Metastatic disease is uncommon following postoperative bed radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy. Adding 6 months of ADT to this radiotherapy did not improve metastasis-free survival compared with no ADT. These findings do not support the use of short-course ADT with postoperative radiotherapy in this patient population

Duration of androgen deprivation therapy with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of long-course versus short-course androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised trial

Background Previous evidence supports androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with primary radiotherapy as initial treatment for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the use and optimal duration of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. Methods RADICALS-HD was a randomised controlled trial of ADT duration within the RADICALS protocol. Here, we report on the comparison of short-course versus long-course ADT. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after previous radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to add 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT) or 24 months of ADT (long-course ADT) to radiotherapy, using subcutaneous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue (monthly in the short-course ADT group and 3-monthly in the long-course ADT group), daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. The comparison had more than 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 75% to 81% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72). Standard time-to-event analyses were used. Analyses followed intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00541047 . Findings Between Jan 30, 2008, and July 7, 2015, 1523 patients (median age 65 years, IQR 60–69) were randomly assigned to receive short-course ADT (n=761) or long-course ADT (n=762) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 138 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 8·9 years (7·0–10·0), 313 metastasis-free survival events were reported overall (174 in the short-course ADT group and 139 in the long-course ADT group; HR 0·773 [95% CI 0·612–0·975]; p=0·029). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 71·9% (95% CI 67·6–75·7) in the short-course ADT group and 78·1% (74·2–81·5) in the long-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 105 (14%) of 753 participants in the short-course ADT group and 142 (19%) of 757 participants in the long-course ADT group (p=0·025), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Compared with adding 6 months of ADT, adding 24 months of ADT improved metastasis-free survival in people receiving postoperative radiotherapy. For individuals who can accept the additional duration of adverse effects, long-course ADT should be offered with postoperative radiotherapy. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Research and Innovation (formerly Medical Research Council), and Canadian Cancer Society