The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels

Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030

The global impact of shipping on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing, as well as the associated uncertainties, have been quantified using an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models and a predefined set of emission data. The analysis is performed for present-day conditions ( year 2000) and for two future ship emission scenarios. In one scenario ship emissions stabilize at 2000 levels; in the other ship emissions increase with a constant annual growth rate of 2.2% up to 2030 ( termed the "Constant Growth Scenario" (CGS)). Most other anthropogenic emissions follow the IPCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES ( Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 scenario, while biomass burning and natural emissions remain at year 2000 levels. An intercomparison of the model results with observations over the Northern Hemisphere (25 degrees - 60 degrees N) oceanic regions in the lower troposphere showed that the models are capable to reproduce ozone (O-3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx= NO+ NO2) reasonably well, whereas sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the marine boundary layer is significantly underestimated. The most pronounced changes in annual mean tropospheric NO2 and sulphate columns are simulated over the Baltic and North Seas. Other significant changes occur over the North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and along the main shipping lane from Europe to Asia, across the Red and Arabian Seas. Maximum contributions from shipping to annual mean near-surface O-3 are found over the North Atlantic ( 5 - 6 ppbv in 2000; up to 8 ppbv in 2030). Ship contributions to tropospheric O3 columns over the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans reach 1 DU in 2000 and up to 1.8 DU in 2030. Tropospheric O-3 forcings due to shipping are 9.8 +/- 2.0 mW/m(2) in 2000 and 13.6 +/- 2.3 mW/m(2) in 2030. Whilst increasing O-3, ship NOx simultaneously enhances hydroxyl radicals over the remote ocean, reducing the global methane lifetime by 0.13 yr in 2000, and by up to 0.17 yr in 2030, introducing a negative radiative forcing. The models show future increases in NOx and O-3 burden which scale almost linearly with increases in NOx emission totals. Increasing emissions from shipping would significantly counteract the benefits derived from reducing SO2 emissions from all other anthropogenic sources under the A2 scenario over the continents, for example in Europe. Globally, shipping contributes 3% to increases in O-3 burden between 2000 and 2030, and 4.5% to increases in sulphate under A2/CGS. However, if future ground based emissions follow a more stringent scenario, the relative importance of ship emissions will increase. Inter-model differences in the simulated O-3 contributions from ships are significantly smaller than estimated uncertainties stemming from the ship emission inventory, mainly the ship emission totals, the distribution of the emissions over the globe, and the neglect of ship plume dispersion

On possible skewon effects on light propagation

We start from a local and linear spacetime relation between the electromagnetic excitation and the field strength. Then we study the generally covariant Fresnel surfaces for light rays and light waves. The metric and the connection of spacetime are left unspecified. Accordingly, our framework is ideally suited for a search of possible violations of the Lorentz symmetry in the photon sector of the extended standard model. We discuss how the skewon part of the constitutive tensor, if suitably parametrized, influences the Fresnel surfaces and disturbs the light cones of vacuum electrodynamics. Conditions are specified that yield the reduction of the original quartic Fresnel surface to the double light cone structure (birefringence) and to the single light cone. Qualitatively, the effects of the real skewon field can be compared to those in absorbing material media. In contrast, the imaginary skewon field can be interpreted in terms of non-absorbing media with natural optical activity and Faraday effects. The astrophysical data on gamma-ray bursts are used for deriving an upper limit for the magnitude of the skewon field.Comment: Revtex, 29 pages, 10 figures, references added, text as in the published versio

Spectroscopy of free radicals and radical containing entrance-channel complexes in superfluid helium nano-droplets

The spectroscopy of free radicals and radical containing entrance-channel complexes embedded in superfluid helium nano-droplets is reviewed. The collection of dopants inside individual droplets in the beam represents a micro-canonical ensemble, and as such each droplet may be considered an isolated cryo-reactor. The unique properties of the droplets, namely their low temperature (0.4 K) and fast cooling rates ($\sim10^{16}$ K s$^{-1}$) provides novel opportunities for the formation and high-resolution studies of molecular complexes containing one or more free radicals. The production methods of radicals are discussed in light of their applicability for embedding the radicals in helium droplets. The spectroscopic studies performed to date on molecular radicals and on entrance / exit-channel complexes of radicals with stable molecules are detailed. The observed complexes provide new information on the potential energy surfaces of several fundamental chemical reactions and on the intermolecular interactions present in open-shell systems. Prospects of further experiments of radicals embedded in helium droplets are discussed, especially the possibilities to prepare and study high-energy structures and their controlled manipulation, as well as the possibility of fundamental physics experiments.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables (RevTeX

Mixed valency in cerium oxide crystallographic phases: Determination of valence of the different cerium sites by the bond valence method

We have applied the bond valence method to cerium oxides to determine the oxidation states of the Ce ion at the various site symmetries of the crystals. The crystals studied include cerium dioxide and the two sesquioxides along with some selected intermediate phases which are crystallographically well characterized. Our results indicate that cerium dioxide has a mixed-valence ground state with an f-electron population on the Ce site of 0.27 while both the A- and C-sesquioxides have a nearly pure f^1 configuration. The Ce sites in most of the intermediate oxides have non-integral valences. Furthermore, many of these valences are different from the values predicted from a naive consideration of the stoichiometric valence of the compound

The nonlinear time-dependent response of isotactic polypropylene

Tensile creep tests, tensile relaxation tests and a tensile test with a constant rate of strain are performed on injection-molded isotactic polypropylene at room temperature in the vicinity of the yield point. A constitutive model is derived for the time-dependent behavior of semi-crystalline polymers. A polymer is treated as an equivalent network of chains bridged by permanent junctions. The network is modelled as an ensemble of passive meso-regions (with affine nodes) and active meso-domains (where junctions slip with respect to their positions in the bulk medium with various rates). The distribution of activation energies for sliding in active meso-regions is described by a random energy model. Adjustable parameters in the stress--strain relations are found by fitting experimental data. It is demonstrated that the concentration of active meso-domains monotonically grows with strain, whereas the average potential energy for sliding of junctions and the standard deviation of activation energies suffer substantial drops at the yield point. With reference to the concept of dual population of crystalline lamellae, these changes in material parameters are attributed to transition from breakage of subsidiary (thin) lamellae in the sub-yield region to fragmentation of primary (thick) lamellae in the post-yield region of deformation.Comment: 29 pages, 12 figure

Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere

In recent years a number of chemistry-climate models have been developed with an emphasis on the stratosphere. Such models cover a wide range of time scales of integration and vary considerably in complexity. The results of specific diagnostics are here analysed to examine the differences amongst individual models and observations, to assess the consistency of model predictions, with a particular focus on polar ozone. For example, many models indicate a significant cold bias in high latitudes, the “cold pole problem”, particularly in the southern hemisphere during winter and spring. This is related to wave propagation from the troposphere which can be improved by improving model horizontal resolution and with the use of non-orographic gravity wave drag. As a result of the widely differing modelled polar temperatures, different amounts of polar stratospheric clouds are simulated which in turn result in varying ozone values in the models. The results are also compared to determine the possible future behaviour of ozone, with an emphasis on the polar regions and mid-latitudes. All models predict eventual ozone recovery, but give a range of results concerning its timing and extent. Differences in the simulation of gravity waves and planetary waves as well as model resolution are likely major sources of uncertainty for this issue. In the Antarctic, the ozone hole has probably reached almost its deepest although the vertical and horizontal extent of depletion may increase slightly further over the next few years. According to the model results, Antarctic ozone recovery could begin any year within the range 2001 to 2008. The limited number of models which have been integrated sufficiently far indicate that full recovery of ozone to 1980 levels may not occur in the Antarctic until about the year 2050. For the Arctic, most models indicate that small ozone losses may continue for a few more years and that recovery could begin any year within the range 2004 to 2019. The start of ozone recovery in the Arctic is therefore expected to appear later than in the Antarctic

Ligand-Receptor Interactions

The formation and dissociation of specific noncovalent interactions between a variety of macromolecules play a crucial role in the function of biological systems. During the last few years, three main lines of research led to a dramatic improvement of our understanding of these important phenomena. First, combination of genetic engineering and X ray cristallography made available a simultaneous knowledg of the precise structure and affinity of series or related ligand-receptor systems differing by a few well-defined atoms. Second, improvement of computer power and simulation techniques allowed extended exploration of the interaction of realistic macromolecules. Third, simultaneous development of a variety of techniques based on atomic force microscopy, hydrodynamic flow, biomembrane probes, optical tweezers, magnetic fields or flexible transducers yielded direct experimental information of the behavior of single ligand receptor bonds. At the same time, investigation of well defined cellular models raised the interest of biologists to the kinetic and mechanical properties of cell membrane receptors. The aim of this review is to give a description of these advances that benefitted from a largely multidisciplinar approach