Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes

Mosquito-borne diseases cause substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. These impacts are widely predicted to increase as temperatures warm and extreme precipitation events become more frequent, since mosquito biology and disease ecology are strongly linked to environmental conditions. However, direct evidence linking environmental change to changes in mosquito-borne disease is rare, and the ecological mechanisms that may underpin such changes are poorly understood. Environmental drivers, such as temperature, can have non-linear, opposing impacts on the demographic rates of different mosquito life cycle stages. As such, model frameworks that can deal with fluctuations in temperature explicitly are required to predict seasonal mosquito abundance, on which the intensity and persistence of disease transmission under different environmental scenarios depends. We present a novel, temperature-dependent, delay-differential equation model, which incorporates diapause and the differential effects of temperature on the duration and mortality of each life stage and demonstrates the sensitivity of seasonal abundance patterns to inter- and intra-annual changes in temperature. Likely changes in seasonal abundance and exposure to mosquitoes under projected changes in UK temperatures are presented, showing an increase in peak vector abundance with warming that potentially increases the risk of disease outbreaks

The Use of mHealth to Deliver Tailored Messages Reduces Reported Energy and Fat Intake.

Evidence supports the role of feedback in reinforcing motivation for behavior change. Feedback that provides reinforcement has the potential to increase dietary self-monitoring and enhance attainment of recommended dietary intake. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of daily feedback (DFB) messages, delivered remotely, on changes in dietary intake. This was a secondary analysis of the Self- Monitoring And Recording using Technology (SMART) Trial, a single-center, 24-month randomized clinical trial of behavioral treatment for weight loss. Participants included 210 obese adults (mean body mass index, 34.0 kg/m2) who were randomized to either a paper diary (PD), personal digital assistant (PDA), or PDA plus daily tailored feedback messages (PDA + FB). To determine the role of daily tailored feedback in dietary intake, we compared the self-monitoring with DFB group (DFB group; n = 70) with the self-monitoring without DFB group (no-DFB group, n = 140). All participants received a standard behavioral intervention for weight loss. Self-reported changes in dietary intake were compared between the DFB and no-DFB groups and were measured at baseline and at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Linear mixed modeling was used to examine percentage changes in dietary intake from baseline. Compared with the no-DFB group, the DFB group achieved a larger reduction in energy (−22.8% vs −14.0%; P = .02) and saturated fat (−11.3% vs −0.5%; P = .03) intake and a trend toward a greater decrease in total fat intake (−10.4% vs −4.7%; P = .09). There were significant improvements over time in carbohydrate intake and total fat intake for both groups (P values < .05). Daily tailored feedback messages designed to target energy and fat intake and delivered remotely in real time using mobile devices may play an important role in the reduction of energy and fat intake

Effects of sea temperature and stratification changes on seabird breeding success

As apex predators in marine ecosystems, seabirds may primarily experience climate change impacts indirectly, via changes to their food webs. Observed seabird population declines have been linked to climate-driven oceanographic and food web changes. However, relationships have often been derived from relatively few colonies and consider only sea surface temperature (SST), so important drivers, and spatial variation in drivers, could remain undetected. Further, explicit climate change projections have rarely been made, so longer-term risks remain unclear. Here, we use tracking data to estimate foraging areas for eleven black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) colonies in the UK and Ireland, thus reducing reliance on single colonies and allowing calculation of colony-specific oceanographic conditions. We use mixed models to consider how SST, the potential energy anomaly (indicating density stratification strength) and the timing of seasonal stratification influence kittiwake productivity. Across all colonies, higher breeding success was associated with weaker stratification before breeding and lower SSTs during the breeding season. Eight colonies with sufficient data were modelled individually: higher productivity was associated with later stratification at three colonies, weaker stratification at two, and lower SSTs at one, whilst two colonies showed no significant relationships. Hence, key drivers of productivity varied among colonies. Climate change projections, made using fitted models, indicated that breeding success could decline by 21 – 43% between 1961-90 and 2070-99. Climate change therefore poses a longer-term threat to kittiwakes, but as this will be mediated via availability of key prey species, other marine apex predators could also face similar threats

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO-Virgo Run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC-2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: A generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society

Narrowband Searches for Continuous and Long-duration Transient Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars in the LIGO-Virgo Third Observing Run

Isolated neutron stars that are asymmetric with respect to their spin axis are possible sources of detectable continuous gravitational waves. This paper presents a fully coherent search for such signals from eighteen pulsars in data from LIGO and Virgo's third observing run (O3). For known pulsars, efficient and sensitive matched-filter searches can be carried out if one assumes the gravitational radiation is phase-locked to the electromagnetic emission. In the search presented here, we relax this assumption and allow both the frequency and the time derivative of the frequency of the gravitational waves to vary in a small range around those inferred from electromagnetic observations. We find no evidence for continuous gravitational waves, and set upper limits on the strain amplitude for each target. These limits are more constraining for seven of the targets than the spin-down limit defined by ascribing all rotational energy loss to gravitational radiation. In an additional search, we look in O3 data for long-duration (hours-months) transient gravitational waves in the aftermath of pulsar glitches for six targets with a total of nine glitches. We report two marginal outliers from this search, but find no clear evidence for such emission either. The resulting duration-dependent strain upper limits do not surpass indirect energy constraints for any of these targets. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society

Phase Behavior of Aqueous Na-K-Mg-Ca-CI-NO3 Mixtures: Isopiestic Measurements and Thermodynamic Modeling

A comprehensive model has been established for calculating thermodynamic properties of multicomponent aqueous systems containing the Na{sup +}, K{sup +}, Mg{sup 2+}, Ca{sup 2+}, Cl{sup -}, and NO{sub 3}{sup -} ions. The thermodynamic framework is based on a previously developed model for mixed-solvent electrolyte solutions. The framework has been designed to reproduce the properties of salt solutions at temperatures ranging from the freezing point to 300 C and concentrations ranging from infinite dilution to the fused salt limit. The model has been parameterized using a combination of an extensive literature database and new isopiestic measurements for thirteen salt mixtures at 140 C. The measurements have been performed using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) previously designed gravimetric isopiestic apparatus, which makes it possible to detect solid phase precipitation. Water activities are reported for mixtures with a fixed ratio of salts as a function of the total apparent salt mole fraction. The isopiestic measurements reported here simultaneously reflect two fundamental properties of the system, i.e., the activity of water as a function of solution concentration and the occurrence of solid-liquid transitions. The thermodynamic model accurately reproduces the new isopiestic data as well as literature data for binary, ternary and higher-order subsystems. Because of its high accuracy in calculating vapor-liquid and solid-liquid equilibria, the model is suitable for studying deliquescence behavior of multicomponent salt systems