Stochasticity and evolutionary stability

In stochastic dynamical systems, different concepts of stability can be obtained in different limits. A particularly interesting example is evolutionary game theory, which is traditionally based on infinite populations, where strict Nash equilibria correspond to stable fixed points that are always evolutionarily stable. However, in finite populations stochastic effects can drive the system away from strict Nash equilibria, which gives rise to a new concept for evolutionary stability. The conventional and the new stability concepts may apparently contradict each other leading to conflicting predictions in large yet finite populations. We show that the two concepts can be derived from the frequency dependent Moran process in different limits. Our results help to determine the appropriate stability concept in large finite populations. The general validity of our findings is demonstrated showing that the same results are valid employing vastly different co-evolutionary processes

Landscape statistics of the low autocorrelated binary string problem

The statistical properties of the energy landscape of the low autocorrelated binary string problem (LABSP) are studied numerically and compared with those of several classic disordered models. Using two global measures of landscape structure which have been introduced in the Simulated Annealing literature, namely, depth and difficulty, we find that the landscape of LABSP, except perhaps for a very large degeneracy of the local minima energies, is qualitatively similar to some well-known landscapes such as that of the mean-field 2-spin glass model. Furthermore, we consider a mean-field approximation to the pure model proposed by Bouchaud and Mezard (1994, J. Physique I France 4 1109) and show both analytically and numerically that it describes extremely well the statistical properties of LABSP

The statistical mechanics of a polygenic characterunder stabilizing selection, mutation and drift

By exploiting an analogy between population genetics and statistical mechanics, we study the evolution of a polygenic trait under stabilizing selection, mutation, and genetic drift. This requires us to track only four macroscopic variables, instead of the distribution of all the allele frequencies that influence the trait. These macroscopic variables are the expectations of: the trait mean and its square, the genetic variance, and of a measure of heterozygosity, and are derived from a generating function that is in turn derived by maximizing an entropy measure. These four macroscopics are enough to accurately describe the dynamics of the trait mean and of its genetic variance (and in principle of any other quantity). Unlike previous approaches that were based on an infinite series of moments or cumulants, which had to be truncated arbitrarily, our calculations provide a well-defined approximation procedure. We apply the framework to abrupt and gradual changes in the optimum, as well as to changes in the strength of stabilizing selection. Our approximations are surprisingly accurate, even for systems with as few as 5 loci. We find that when the effects of drift are included, the expected genetic variance is hardly altered by directional selection, even though it fluctuates in any particular instance. We also find hysteresis, showing that even after averaging over the microscopic variables, the macroscopic trajectories retain a memory of the underlying genetic states.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figure

FTO and MC4R Gene Variants Are Associated with Obesity in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the leading cause of anovulatory infertility in women. It is also associated with metabolic disturbances that place women at increased risk for obesity and type 2 diabetes. There is strong evidence for familial clustering of PCOS and a genetic predisposition. However, the gene(s) responsible for the PCOS phenotypes have not been elucidated. This two-phase family-based and case-control genetic study was designed to address the question of whether SNPs identified as susceptibility loci for obesity in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are also associated with PCOS and elevated BMI. Members of 439 families having at least one offspring with PCOS were genotyped for 15 SNPs previously shown to be associated with obesity. Linkage and association with PCOS was assessed using the transmission/disequilibrium test (TDT). These SNPs were also analyzed in an independent case-control study involving 395 women with PCOS and 176 healthy women with regular menstrual cycles. Only one of these 15 SNPs (rs2815752 in NEGR1) was found to have a nominally significant association with PCOS (χ2 = 6.11, P = 0.013), but this association failed to replicate in the case-control study. While not associated with PCOS itself, five SNPs in FTO and two in MC4R were associated with BMI as assessed with a quantitative-TDT analysis, several of which replicated association with BMI in the case-control cohort. These findings demonstrate that certain SNPs associated with obesity contribute to elevated BMI in PCOS, but do not appear to play a major role in PCOS per se. These findings support the notion that PCOS phenotypes are a consequence of an oligogenic/polygenic mechanism

A model of weak selection in the infinite alleles framework

Ewens (1972) proposed a model in the infinite allele framework for populations with neutrality of all alleles at a particular locus. This paper proposes a generalisation of Ewens' result for situations where there is a form of weak selection. The models considered here are continuous time, discrete state space Markov processes.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46945/1/285_2004_Article_BF00275643.pd

Large Fluctuations and Fixation in Evolutionary Games

We study large fluctuations in evolutionary games belonging to the coordination and anti-coordination classes. The dynamics of these games, modeling cooperation dilemmas, is characterized by a coexistence fixed point separating two absorbing states. We are particularly interested in the problem of fixation that refers to the possibility that a few mutants take over the entire population. Here, the fixation phenomenon is induced by large fluctuations and is investigated by a semi-classical WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) theory generalized to treat stochastic systems possessing multiple absorbing states. Importantly, this method allows us to analyze the combined influence of selection and random fluctuations on the evolutionary dynamics \textit{beyond} the weak selection limit often considered in previous works. We accurately compute, including pre-exponential factors, the probability distribution function in the long-lived coexistence state and the mean fixation time necessary for a few mutants to take over the entire population in anti-coordination games, and also the fixation probability in the coordination class. Our analytical results compare excellently with extensive numerical simulations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our treatment is superior to the Fokker-Planck approximation when the selection intensity is finite.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, to appear in JSTA

Impact of FTO genotypes on BMI and weight in polycystic ovary syndrome : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims/hypothesis FTO gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been shown to be associated with obesity-related traits and type 2 diabetes. Several small studies have suggested a greater than expected effect of the FTO rs9939609 SNP on weight in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). We therefore aimed to examine the impact of FTO genotype on BMI and weight in PCOS. Methods A systematic search of medical databases (PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane CENTRAL) was conducted up to the end of April 2011. Seven studies describing eight distinct PCOS cohorts were retrieved; seven were genotyped for SNP rs9939609 and one for SNP rs1421085. The per allele effect on BMI and body weight increase was calculated and subjected to meta-analysis. Results A total of 2,548 women with PCOS were included in the study; 762 were TT homozygotes, 1,253 had an AT/CT genotype, and 533 were AA/CC homozygotes. Each additional copy of the effect allele (A/C) increased the BMI by a mean of 0.19 z score units (95% CI 0.13, 0.24; p = 2.26 × 10−11) and body weight by a mean of 0.20 z score units (95% CI 0.14, 0.26; p = 1.02 × 10−10). This translated into an approximately 3.3 kg/m2 increase in BMI and an approximately 9.6 kg gain in body weight between TT and AA/CC homozygotes. The association between FTO genotypes and BMI was stronger in the cohorts with PCOS than in the general female populations from large genome-wide association studies. Deviation from an additive genetic model was observed in heavier populations. Conclusions/interpretation The effect of FTO SNPs on obesity-related traits in PCOS seems to be more than two times greater than the effect found in large population-based studies. This suggests an interaction between FTO and the metabolic context or polygenic background of PCOS

Fast flowing populations are not well mixed

In evolutionary dynamics, well-mixed populations are almost always associated with all-to-all interactions; mathematical models are based on complete graphs. In most cases, these models do not predict fixation probabilities in groups of individuals mixed by flows. We propose an analytical description in the fast-flow limit. This approach is valid for processes with global and local selection, and accurately predicts the suppression of selection as competition becomes more local. It provides a modelling tool for biological or social systems with individuals in motion.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure