The hydrological characterisation and water budget of a South African rehabilitated headwater wetland system

This paper presents a synopsis of the findings of a valley bottom wetland monitoring study in which dominant hydrological processes maintaining the system are quantitatively defined. The Craigieburn-Manalana is a wetland subjected to technical rehabilitation, at the headwaters of the Sand River in the lowveld savanna region of South Africa.Findings include the identification of a rapid water delivery mechanism from the surrounding hillslopes to the wetland following a threshold-exceeding precipitation event, when hillslope-toe soil matric potential is close to 0, leading to a raising of the wetland water table by >0.7 m within 3 h. A summary of quantified fluxes and associated water budget of the wetland and its contributing catchment is developed. It is revealed that this wetland does not necessarily conform to the typical assumptions that wetlands augment low flows. Surface layer scintillometry shows actual wetland evapotranspiration to dominate the water budget during the dry season (2.3–3.5 mm/d) compared to its contributing catchment (0.9–2.2 mm/d), whilst stream discharge had ceased. Hydrograph separation, based on stable isotopes (18O), revealed that the wetland does not attenuate peak flows during the summer rains when the wetlands soil moisture deficit is close to 0, since more than 66% of stream discharge comprised event water. These results are discussed within the context of current hydrological understanding of southern African headwater wetlands, such as dambos.Keywords: hillslope processes, hydro-geomorphology, water budget, dambos, rehabilitation, wetland

The Bayesian Decision Tree Technique with a Sweeping Strategy

The uncertainty of classification outcomes is of crucial importance for many safety critical applications including, for example, medical diagnostics. In such applications the uncertainty of classification can be reliably estimated within a Bayesian model averaging technique that allows the use of prior information. Decision Tree (DT) classification models used within such a technique gives experts additional information by making this classification scheme observable. The use of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology of stochastic sampling makes the Bayesian DT technique feasible to perform. However, in practice, the MCMC technique may become stuck in a particular DT which is far away from a region with a maximal posterior. Sampling such DTs causes bias in the posterior estimates, and as a result the evaluation of classification uncertainty may be incorrect. In a particular case, the negative effect of such sampling may be reduced by giving additional prior information on the shape of DTs. In this paper we describe a new approach based on sweeping the DTs without additional priors on the favorite shape of DTs. The performances of Bayesian DT techniques with the standard and sweeping strategies are compared on a synthetic data as well as on real datasets. Quantitatively evaluating the uncertainty in terms of entropy of class posterior probabilities, we found that the sweeping strategy is superior to the standard strategy

Basin structure in the two-dimensional dissipative circle map

Fractal basin structure in the two-dimensional dissipative circle map is examined in detail. Numerically obtained basin appears to be riddling in the parameter region where two periodic orbits co-exist near a boundary crisis, but it is shown to consist of layers of thin bands.Comment: published in J. Phys. Soc. Jpn., 72, 1943-1947 (2003

Spectral Templates from Multicolor Redshift Surveys

Understanding how the physical properties of galaxies (e.g. their spectral type or age) evolve as a function of redshift relies on having an accurate representation of galaxy spectral energy distributions. While it has been known for some time that galaxy spectra can be reconstructed from a handful of orthogonal basis templates, the underlying basis is poorly constrained. The limiting factor has been the lack of large samples of galaxies (covering a wide range in spectral type) with high signal-to-noise spectrophotometric observations. To alleviate this problem we introduce here a new technique for reconstructing galaxy spectral energy distributions directly from samples of galaxies with broadband photometric data and spectroscopic redshifts. Exploiting the statistical approach of the Karhunen-Loeve expansion, our iterative training procedure increasingly improves the eigenbasis, so that it provides better agreement with the photometry. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by applying these improved spectral energy distributions to the estimation of photometric redshifts for the HDF sample of galaxies. We find that in a small number of iterations the dispersion in the photometric redshifts estimator (a comparison between predicted and measured redshifts) can decrease by up to a factor of 2.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures, LaTeX AASTeX, accepted for publication in A

Integrating the promotion of physical activity within a smoking cessation programme: Findings from collaborative action research in UK Stop Smoking Services

Background: Within the framework of collaborative action research, the aim was to explore the feasibility of developing and embedding physical activity promotion as a smoking cessation aid within UK 6/7-week National Health Service (NHS) Stop Smoking Services. Methods: In Phase 1 three initial cycles of collaborative action research (observation, reflection, planning, implementation and re-evaluation), in an urban Stop Smoking Service, led to the development of an integrated intervention in which physical activity was promoted as a cessation aid, with the support of a theoretically based self-help guide, and self monitoring using pedometers. In Phase 2 advisors underwent training and offered the intervention, and changes in physical activity promoting behaviour and beliefs were monitored. Also, changes in clients’ stage of readiness to use physical activity as a cessation aid, physical activity beliefs and behaviour and physical activity levels were assessed, among those who attended the clinic at 4-week post-quit. Qualitative data were collected, in the form of clinic observation, informal interviews with advisors and field notes. Results: The integrated intervention emerged through cycles of collaboration as something quite different to previous practice. Based on field notes, there were many positive elements associated with the integrated intervention in Phase 2. Self-reported advisors’ physical activity promoting behaviour increased as a result of training and adapting to the intervention. There was a significant advancement in clients’ stage of readiness to use physical activity as a smoking cessation aid. Conclusions: Collaboration with advisors was key in ensuring that a feasible intervention was developed as an aid to smoking cessation. There is scope to further develop tailored support to increasing physical activity and smoking cessation, mediated through changes in perceptions about the benefits of, and confidence to do physical activity

Setting a precautionary catch limit for Antarctic krill

A revised precautionary catch limit for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in the Scotia Sea of 4 million tons was recently adopted by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). The limit was based on a total biomass of 44.3 million tons, as estimated from an acoustic and net survey of krill across the Scotia Sea sector of the Southern Ocean, and a harvest rate of 9.1%, as determined from an analysis of the risks of exceeding defined conservation criteria. We caution, however, that before the fishery can expand to the 4-inillion-ton level it will be necessary to establish mechanisms to avoid concentration of fishing effort, particularly in proximity to colonies of land-breeding krill predators, and to consider the effects of krill immigrating into the region from multiple sources

Extending periodic eddy covariance latent heat fluxes through tree sap-flow measurements to estimate long-term total evaporation in a peat swamp forest

A combination of measurement and modelling was used to find a pragmatic solution to estimate the annual total evaporation from the rare and indigenous Nkazana Peat Swamp Forest (PSF) on the east coast of Southern Africa to improve the water balance estimates within the area. Actual total evaporation (ETa) was measured during three window periods (between 7 and 9 days each) using an eddy covariance (EC) system on a telescopic mast above the forest canopy. Sap flows of an understory tree and an emergent tree were measured using a low-maintenance heat pulse velocity system for an entire hydrological year (October 2009 to September 2010). An empirical model was derived, describing the relationship between ETa from the Nkazana PSF and sap-flow measurements. These overlapped during two of the window periods (R2 = 0.92 and 0.90), providing hourly estimates of ETa from the Nkazana PSF for a year, totalling 1125 mm (while rainfall was 650 mm). In building the empirical model, it was found that to include the understory tree sap flow provided no benefit to the model performance. In addition, the relationship between the emergent tree sap flow with ETa between the two field campaigns was consistent and could be represented by a single empirical model (R2 = 0.90; RMSE = 0.08 mm h−1). During the window periods of EC measurement, no single meteorological variable was found to describe the Nkazana PSF ETa satisfactorily. However, in terms of evaporation models, the hourly FAO Penman–Monteith reference evaporation (ETo) best described ETa during the August 2009 (R2 = 0.75), November 2009 (R2 = 0.85) and March 2010 (R2 = 0.76) field campaigns, compared to the Priestley–Taylor potential evaporation (ETp) model (R2 = 0.54, 0.74 and 0.62 during the respective field campaigns). From the extended record of ETa (derived in this study from sap flow) and ETo, a monthly crop factor (Kc) was derived for the Nkazana PSF, providing a method of estimating long-term swamp forest water-use from meteorological data. The monthly Kc indicated two distinct periods. From February to May, it was between 1.2 and 1.4 compared with June to January, when the crop factor was 0.8 to 1.0. The derived monthly Kc values were verified as accurate (to one significant digit) using historical data measured at the same site, also using EC, from a previous study. The measurements provided insights into the microclimate within a subtropical peat swamp forest and the contrasting sap flow of emergent and understory trees. They showed that expensive, high-maintenance equipment can be used during manageable window periods in conjunction with low-maintenance systems, dedicated to individual trees, to derive a model to estimate long-term ETa over remote heterogeneous forests. In addition, the contrast in annual ETa and rainfall emphasised the reliance of the Nkazana PSF on groundwater