"Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade"

The gravity equation has been traditionally used to predict trade flows across countries. However, several problems related with its empirical application still remain unsolved. In this paper, I provide a survey of the recent literature concerning the specification and estimation methods of this equation. In addition, I compare the performance of two widely extended estimators, panel OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), for a dataset covering 80% of world trade.International trade, Gravity model, Estimation methods

Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade

The gravity equation has been traditionally used to predict trade flows across countries. However, several problems related with its empirical application still remain unsolved. In this paper, I provide a survey of the recent literature concerning the specification and estimation methods of this equation. In addition, I compare the performance of two widely extended estimators, panel OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), for a dataset covering 80% of world trade

Reporting a bottom-up political process : local perceptions of cross- border cooperation in the southern Portugal–Spain region

Beyond the national political-territorial borders in Europe, the cross-regional dimension maintains an experimental democratic character. Entities developed to foster cross- border cooperation, such as working communities and Euroregions, are conceived as mechanisms of democratisation through the decentralisation of regional or/and local governmental bodies. However, scholarly debate suggests that the top-down policy- making process that is characteristic of cross-border programmes seems to cast doubt on the fulfilment of a European participatory democracy. In this respect, the cross-border cooperation process seems to contribute to an added value to the dilemma of the European democratic deficit. The objective of this paper is to present a regional contribution to this debate through a study of local experts’ perspectives on the implementation and impact of cross-border cooperation policies in the southern Portugal-Spain border region and the possibilities for local and social participation. This paper utilises data from two related investigations in the southern cross-border area between Portugal and Spain, including qualitative interviews, focus groups, and content analysis of secondary data. The results reveal a positive attitude towards the recent regional top-down initiatives of European integration, although local experts question the potential for the inclusion of local perspectives in cross-border initiatives. Additionally, during this period of economic crisis, political contradictions may be observed, and political initiatives related to the Spanish-Portugal border may hamper the existing cross-border flows and dynamics of progressive integration. In this sense, local authorities play an important role as the nexus between transnational institutions of cross-border cooperation and the inhabitants of border regions

EMU impact of on third countries' exports: a gravity approach

In this article we explore the impact of the euro adoption and the effect of the volatility of the real exchange rate on trade both on intra EMU trade and on EMU trade with third countries. To this end, we use a large database covering 93% of world trade that includes 80 countries during the period 1980-2009. We estimate a gravity equation using one of the most complete specifications in the literature to isolate the euro effect from other factors affecting trade, as regional trade agreements or exchange rate volatility. Our results show that the elimination of the volatility boosted export per se especially before 1999 and therefore, the possibility to peg to the euro could boost trade of third countries and between these third countries.Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation SEJ2007-62081, and the Regional Programs P07-SEJ-03261 and SEJ‐340 of the Regional Government of Andalusia

EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations

In this paper, we present evidence of the long-run effect of the euro on trade for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967–2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of trade flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU members vis-à-vis the other eleven partners. We apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross-dependence and structural breaks. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra-European trade, by isolating the individual countries, we assess which of the member countries have obtained a larger benefit from the euro. The results show that the euro has had a positive though small effect on trade. Belgium and Luxembourg, France and Italy are the countries more benefited from the introduction of the euro. The effects for exports to third countries are in general more moderate, and, with the exception of Greece, there is no evidence of diversion effects

The euro impact on trade: long run evidence with structural breaks

In this paper we present new evidence on the euro effect on trade. We use a data set containing all bilateral combinations in a panel of 26 OECD countries during the period 1967-2008. From a methodological point of view, we implement a new generation of tests that allow solving some of the problems derived from the non-stationary nature of the data. To this aim we apply panel tests that account for the presence of cross-section dependence as well as discontinuities in the non-stationary panel data. We test for cointegration between the variables using panel cointegration tests, especially the ones proposed by Banerjee and Carrióni- Silvestre (2010). We also efficiently estimate the long-run relationships using the CUP-BC and CUP-FM estimators proposed in Bai et al. (2009). We argue that, after controlling for cross-section dependence and deterministic trends and breaks in trade integration, the euro appears to generate lower trade effects than predicted in previous studies.Financing from Spanish MICINN [ECO2011-30260-C03-01, ECO2008-05908-C02-01 and 02/ECON and SEJ2007-62081 (E. Gómez)]. M. Camarero and C. Tamarit are members of INTECO research group funded by Generalitat Valenciana, project PROMETEO/2009/098

Is the ‘euro effect’ on trade so small after all? New evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques

In this paper we present new evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on trade using data for 26 OECD countries for the period 1967–2008. We strive to fill the gaps present in the previous literature through a second-generation panel cointegration tests and estimators that account for both cross-section dependence in the data and discontinuities in the deterministic and the cointegrating vector in the time dimension. This approach allows us to put the adoption of the euro by EMU members in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU is best interpreted as a progression of policy changes. Once we control for all of them the euro effect decreases considerably but is still significant

EMU and intra-European trade: long-run evidence using gravity equations

In this article we present evidence of the long-run effect of the euro on exports for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967-2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of export flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU-members vis-à-vis the other eleven partners. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra-European exports, by isolating the individual countries we assess which of them have obtained a larger benefit from the euro. Moreover, this strategy permits to check the robustness of the aggregate results and to find possible asymmetries. Finally, we repeat both the aggregated and individual analysis for the bilateral exports of EMU members to third countries. From an econometric point of view, we apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross-dependence and structural breaks

Diagnóstico de los servicios de alimentación frente a situaciones de emergencia de los hospitales Alemán Nicaragüense y Dr. Roberto Calderón Gutiérrez de Managua, Agosto 2015 a Enero 2016

El presente estudio es el resultado de una investigación Descriptiva de corte transversal con enfoque cualicuantitativo y con el fin de Elaborar un Diagnóstico de los Servicios de Alimentación frente a Situaciones de Emergencia de los Hospitales Alemán Nicaragüense Y Dr. Roberto Calderón Gutiérrez de la Ciudad de Managua, Agosto 2015 a Enero 2016; los objetivos del estudio se enfocan en caracterizar los aspectos generales de las Instituciones Hospitalarias, conocer el Nivel de Seguridad según su ubicación geográfica, Aplicar Índice de Seguridad según el criterio de Hospital Seguro de la OPS y describir el aspecto funcional de los Servicios de alimentación ante situaciones de desastres de los Hospitales sometidos a estudio. La investigación se llevó a cabo en los Hospitales Alemán Nicaragüense y Dr. Roberto Calderón Gutiérrez durante los meses de Agosto 2015 hasta Enero 2016. La información se obtuvo mediante entrevistas dirigidas al Director de Epidemiologia y a la Jefa del Servicio de alimentación. También se recolectó información a través de observación directa, realizada por un equipo multidisciplinario que incluyó a las responsables del estudio y profesionales de Ingeniería, con el objetivo de evaluar la parte estructural y no estructural de las Unidades de Salud incluyendo el Servicio de alimentación. Los principales hallazgos encontrados en el estudio fueron: El Hospital Dr. Roberto Calderón Gutiérrez cuenta con capacidad de 207 camas en uso. La especialidad que atienden mayormente es Medicina Interna en un 61% El Hospital Alemán Nicaragüense cuenta con una capacidad de 240 camas. La especialidad más demandada es medicina interna 26%. Las amenazas que tienen un nivel de afectación alto en el Hospital Dr. Roberto Calderón Gutiérrez son lluvias torrenciales, huracanes y sismos. En el Hospital Alemán Nicaragüense las amenazas que prevalecen son huracanes y sismos. El Índice de Seguridad de Ambos Hospitales están clasificados según el modelo matemático en la Categoría B. En cuanto a la Equivalencia en raciones y días de consumo de reserva de alimentos que existe en los Hospitales prevalece con más días el Hospital Roberto Calderón Gutiérrez