Modelling Taylor Rule Uncertainty

In recent years, one has witnessed a widespread attention on the way monetary policy is conducted and in particular on the role of the so-called monetary policy rules. The conventional approach in the literature consists in estimating reaction functions for a monetary authority (the Federal Reserve, in most cases) in which a nominal interest rate, directly or indirectly controlled by that monetary authority, is adjusted in response to deviations of inflation (current or expected) from target and of output from potential. These reaction functions, usually called Taylor rules, following John Taylor's seminal paper published in 1993, match a number of normative principles set forth in the literature for optimal monetary policy. This provides a good reason for the growing prominence of indications given by Taylor rule estimations in debates about current and prospective monetary policy stance. However, they are usually presented as point estimates for the interest rate, giving a sense of accuracy that can be misleading. Typically, no emphasis is placed on the risks of those estimates and, at least to a certain extent, the reader is encouraged to concentrate on an apparently precise central projection, ignoring the wide degree of uncertainty and operational difficulties surrounding the estimates. As in any forecasting exercise, there is uncertainty regarding both the estimated parameters and the way the explanatory variables evolve during the forecasting horizon. Our work presents a methodology to estimate a probability density function for the interest rate resulting from the application of a Taylor rule (the Taylor interest rate) which acknowledges that not only the explanatory variables but also the parameters of the rule are random variables.

Cheating with robots: How at ease do they make us feel?

People are not perfect, and if given the chance, some will be dishonest with no regrets. Some people will cheat just a little to gain some advantage, and others will not do it at all. With the prospect of more human-robot interactions in the future, it will become very important to understand which kind of roles a robot can have in the regulation of cheating behavior. We investigated whether people will cheat while in the presence of a robot and to what extent this depends on the role the robot plays. We ran a study to test cheating behavior with a die task, and allocated people to one of the following conditions: 1) participants were alone in the room while doing the task; 2) with a robot with a vigilant role or 3) with a robot that had a supporting role in the task, accompanying and giving instructions. Our results showed that participants cheated significantly more than chance when they were alone or with the robot giving instructions. In contrast, cheating could not be proven when the robot presented a vigilant role. This study has implications for human-robot interaction and for the deployment of autonomous robots in sensitive roles in which people may be prone to dishonest behavior.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

production of a synthetic recombinant antigen for immunodetection of Pneumocystis jirovecii

Diagnosis of Pneumocystis pneumonia (PcP) relies on the detection of P. jirovecii in respiratory specimens obtained by invasive techniques. Thus, the development of a serological test is urgently needed as it will allow the diagnosis of PcP using blood, an inexpensive and non-invasive specimen. This study aims to combine the production of a multi-epitope synthetic recombinant antigen (RSA) and an ELISA test for detection of anti-P. jirovecii antibodies, in order to develop a new approach for PcP diagnosis. The RSA was selected and designed based on the study of the immunogenicity of the carboxyl-terminal domain of the major surface glycoprotein. This antigen was purified and used as an antigenic tool in an ELISA technique for detection of Ig, IgG and IgM antibodies anti-P. jirovecii (patent-pending no. PT109078). Serum specimens from 88 patients previously categorized in distinct clinical subgroups and 17 blood donors, were analysed. The IgM anti-P. jirovecii levels were statistically increased in patients with PcP (p = 0.001) and the ELISA IgM anti-P. jirovecii test presented a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 80.8%, when associated with the clinical diagnosis criteria. This innovative approach, provides good insights about what can be done in the future serum testing for PcP diagnosis.publishersversionpublishe

sanidade avícola contribui para o crescimento da produção de aves.

Projeto: 11.11.11.111

Caracterização da terapêutica não farmacológica dos utentes diabéticos de uma farmácia do concelho de Sintra

A diabetes tipo 2 é uma doença metabólica que se estima que atinja 9,8% dos portugueses acima dos 20 anos. O reconhecimento de que o bom controlo glicémico permite reduzir de forma significativa as suas complicações estabeleceu como prioridade nestes doentes o tratamento eficaz da hiperglicemia. Na base do tratamento encontram-se as modificações dos estilos de vida, considerando-se a sobrenutrição e o sedentarismo (associados a excesso de peso e/ou obesidade e insulino-resistência) os principais factores ambientais que aumentam o risco de diabetes tipo 2, num contexto de susceptibilidade genética. Por essa razão, as intervenções que contrariem estes factores têm demonstrado um efeito benéfico no controlo glicémico. Nesse contexto cabe também às farmácias comunitárias a promoção de estilos de vida saudáveis juntodas suas populações. Objectivo do estudo: caracterizar a terapêutica não farmacológica, nomeadamente hábitos alimentares e prática de exercício físico, dos utentes diabéticos de uma farmácia do concelho de Sintra

A_4-based neutrino masses with Majoron decaying dark matter

We propose an A_4 flavor-symmetric SU(3)xSU(2)xU(1) seesaw model where lepton number is broken spontaneously. A consistent two-zero texture pattern of neutrino masses and mixing emerges from the interplay of type-I and type-II seesaw contributions, with important phenomenological predictions. We show that, if the Majoron becomes massive, such seesaw scenario provides a viable candidate for decaying dark matter, consistent with cosmic microwave background lifetime constraints that follow from current WMAP observations. We also calculate the sub-leading one-loop-induced decay into photons which leads to a mono-energetic emission line that may be observed in future X-ray missions such as Xenia.Comment: 16 pages, 6 eps figures. Minor corrections. To appear in Phys. Rev.

Correlação da contagem de células somáticas com o ganho de peso diário em ovinos de rebanhos de corte.

A contagem de células somáticas (CCS) apresenta-se elevada nas inflamações da glândula mamária ovina. Esse aumento na CCS, principalmente de origem infecciosa, pode afetar a qualidade nutricional do leite que é oferecido pela mãe à cria, o que resulta na diminuição do ganho de peso diário (GPD) dos cordeiros. Este trabalho teve como objetivo correlacionar a CCS do leite de fêmeas ovinas com e sem mastite com o GPD de seus cordeiros

The influence of processing conditions on the aesthetical, morphological and mechanical properties of SF mouldings of high-impact polystyrene (HIPS-SF)

The production of large plastic parts, in small series and at low cost, requires the development of alternative tools and materials. Structural foams (SF) are a good solution, when the production of thicker parts with good properties is the specification. They allow obtaining lightweight parts with high stiffness and good dimensional stability, due to their sandwich-like structure constituted by a cellular core and two solid skins. The porous core results from the addition of a blowing agent in the polymeric matrix. These materials are applied in urban furniture, automotive, nautical and aerospace industries. The most used process to produce SF is the low pressure foam moulding, which is a short shot process, with impression pressures ranging from 1.4 to 4 MPa. Thus, the use of hybrid moulds with moulding blocks obtained by rapid prototyping routes is seen as a viable alternative for SF injection moulding. This work reports on a study of the influence of processing conditions on the aesthetical, morphological, and mechanical properties of SF mouldings of high-impact polystyrene (HIPS-SF). The results compare the effect of the use of hybrid moulds to conventional moulds on the surface aspect of the circular centre gated mouldings. Furthermore the influence of the moulding temperature is ascertained in terms of the resulting cellular morphology, the flexural stiffness of the plate mouldings, and the impact resistance in the instrumented drop weight test.QREN - contract 2010/013307 - project ‘Hybridmould 21

Three new species of Neocamarosporium isolated from saline environments: N. aestuarinum sp. nov., N. endophyticum sp. nov. and N. halimiones sp. nov.

Neocamarosporium species are typically halotolerant, being commonly found in saline environments like saline water, hypersaline soils and especially in association with halophytes. Several isolates were obtained from saline water, dead leaves of the seaweed Zostera noltii and live tissues of the halophyte Halimione portulacoides. Phylogenetic analysis based on ITS sequence data placed these isolates into three clades within the genus Neocamarosporium distinct from the currently known species. Isolates from each clade showed clear differences in conidial morphology. Three new species N. aestuarinum sp. nov., N. endophyticum sp. nov. and N. halimiones sp. nov. are described and illustrated. Our results show that the salt marsh plant H. portulacoides harbours a high diversity of Neocamarosporium species.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Ocorrência de estafilococos resistentes à oxacilina causadores de mastite ovina subclínica.

A mastite é a inflamação da glândula mamária, classificada de acordo com a severidade e os sinais inflamatórios apresentados pelo animal acometido. A forma clínica é a que apresenta sinais aparentes, enquanto a subclínica é a mais frequente e é inaparente. A doença pode ser causada por vários agentes etiológicos, e estudos apontam a bactéria do gênero spp. como uma das principais causadoras da doença. Este trabalho objetivou identificar estafilococos resistentes à oxacilina a partir de testes de suscetibilidade pelo método de halo-difusão. Foram utilizados 140 animais em um rebanho experimental de ovinos de propriedade localizada em São Carlos, São Paulo. Foram coletados cerca de 15 mL de leite em duplicatas, com a utilização de frascos esterilizados, após a prévia identificação da mastite subclínica a partir da realização do (CMT). Depois de efetuada a confirmação microbiológica e diferenciação de acordo com a prova de coagulase lenta com plasma de coelho, os microrganismos positivos nesse teste foram submetidos a provas adicionais para a identificação de . Os isolados foram submetidos aos testes de sensibilidade a partir da técnica de difusão em disco em placas de ágar Müeller-Hinton. Dos microrganismos isolados, 63 foram identificados como estafilococos coagulase negativa, dois foram classificados como estafilococos coagulase positiva e oito foram diagnosticados como . Dos 73 microrganismos isolados, 18 (24,7%) demonstraram ser resistentes à oxacilina, 16 (88,9%) dos quais foram identificados como estafilococos coagulase negativa e dois (11,1%) como estafilococos coagulase positiva. O não apresentou resistência à oxacilina. A ocorrência de cepas estafilocócicas resistentes à oxacilina é preocupante, pois frequentemente apresentam resistência a vários outros princípios ativos nos testes de suscetibilidade antimicrobiana, o que pode prejudicar o tratamento de enfermidades causadas por esses microrganismos nos animais em questão. Mais estudos devem ser efetuados com os isolados para investigar os mecanismos relacionados com as características de resistência antimicrobiana à oxacilina