Socioeconomic correlates of global mammalian conservation status

The main causes of biodiversity decline are related to human use of resources, which is ultimately triggered by the socioeconomic decisions made by individuals and nations. Characterizing the socioeconomic attributes of areas in which biodiversity is most threatened can help us identify decisions and conditions that promote the presence or absence of threats and potentially suggest more sustainable strategies. In this study we explored how diverse indicators of social and economic development correlate with the conservation status of terrestrial mammals within countries explicitly exploring hypothesized linear and quadratic relationships. First, comparing countries with and without threatened mammals we found that those without threatened species are a disparate group formed by European countries and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with little in common besides their slow population growth and a past of human impacts. Second, focusing on countries with threatened mammals we found that those with a more threatened mammalian biota have mainly rural populations, are predominantly exporters of goods and services, receive low to intermediate economic benefits from international tourism, and have medium to high human life expectancy. Overall, these results provide a comprehensive characterization of the socioeconomic profiles linked to mammalian conservation status of the world's nations, highlighting the importance of transborder impacts reflected by the international flux of goods, services and people. Further studies would be necessary to unravel the actual mechanisms and threats that link these socioeconomic profiles and indicators with mammalian conservation. Nevertheless, this study presents a broad and complete characterization that offers testable hypotheses regarding how socioeconomic development associates with biodiversity

Species distribution models as a tool for early detection of the invasive Raphidiopsis raciborskii in European lakes

In freshwater habitats, invasive species and the increase of cyanobacterial blooms have been identified as a major cause of biodiversity loss. The invasive cyanobacteria Raphidiopsis raciborskii a toxin-producing and bloom-forming species affecting local biodiversity and ecosystem services is currently expanding its range across Europe. We used species distribution models (SDMs) and regional bioclimatic environmental variables, such as temperature and precipitation, to identify suitable areas for the colonization and survival of R. raciborskii, with special focus on the geographic extent of potential habitats in Northern Europe. SDMs predictions uncovered areas of high occurrence probability of R. raciborskii in locations where it has not been recorded yet, e.g. some areas in Central and Northern Europe. In the southeastern part of Sweden, areas of suitable climate for R. raciborskii corresponded with lakes of high concentrations of total phosphorus, increasing the risk of the species to thrive. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to predict areas at high risk of R. raciborskii colonization in Europe. The results from this study suggest several areas across Europe that would need monitoring programs to determine if the species is present or not, to be able to prevent its potential colonization and population growth. Regarding an undesirable microorganism like R. raciborskii, authorities may need to start information campaigns to avoid or minimize the spread.publishedVersio

Spatial Patterns of Vulnerability in Terrestrial Mammals. Socioeconomic, land use and species-specific correlates of extinction risk at a global scale

We are living an era of great and accelerated global changes. Biodiversity as a whole is exposed to human activities in the entire Earth surface and, as a consequence, a generalized deterioration of its conservation status is taking place. Besides, the impact of humans on the biosphere keeps increasing given the present demand for food, fuels and other natural resources, resulting from population and consumption growth. Understanding which species and areas are most affected by these activities, and which are the main drivers of their current status is a crucial step to avoid further damages and preserve some of the remaining natural values. In the present doctoral thesis I expand the concept of vulnerability to explore the distribution of extinction risk at a global scale. A vulnerable species is one that has a greater chance of becoming extinct given its intrinsic characteristics and the environmental conditions to which it is exposed. A vulnerable area is one that is more likely to disappear as such, given its combination of species and environmental (including human) features. The present thesis focuses on spatial vulnerability incorporating knowledge at the species level to improve our understanding of global changes. Terrestrial mammals are selected to investigate the different factors associated to vulnerability because they are a widely distributed and charismatic group for which information on intrinsic characteristics and main threats is largely available. At the species level, predictors of vulnerability for terrestrial mammals have been widely identified. These can broadly be separated into species intrinsic traits and extrinsic human pressures. A spatial synthesis of both groups of factors is presented in Chapter 1, identifying areas where both intrinsic and extrinsic vulnerabilities present high values (double-susceptibility areas), areas where the intrinsic is high and the extrinsic is low (intrinsic-susceptibility areas), areas where the extrinsic is high and the intrinsic is low (extrinsic-susceptibility areas), and areas where both show relatively low values (low-susceptibility areas). Instead of prioritizing one type of areas over the others, specific conservation actions should be defined according to the particularities of each area. For example, in extrinsic-susceptibility areas the emphasis should be put in controlling human activities, whereas in intrinsic-susceptibility areas, concentrating on particular species would be more advisable. Subsequent chapters focus exclusively on spatial vulnerability, first exploring the socioeconomic context (Chapter 2) and then analyzing in depth the main proximate threat for mammals, human land use, explicitly considering its multiple facets (Chapters 3 and 4). A country’s socioeconomic context has an important role in conservation biology, given that many indirect factors impose a global pressure on species and ecosystems (e.g. growth in world trade, demand for timber, etc.); besides, many environmental regulations are proposed at national –or international– level. Therefore, being able to portray the situation at this scale may serve to inform decision-making. Results from Chapter 2 show that countries harboring more threatened mammals are generally rural, predominantly exporters of goods and services, intermediately dependent on receiving international tourism and have relatively high human life expectancyOn the other hand, countries without threatened mammals are primarily those that already lost the most vulnerable fauna long ago and with means to maintain their remaining sensitive mammals. These findings highlight the importance of transboundary impacts and the fact that lack of threatened mammals is not necessarily a sign of good environmental conservation status. Human land use is by far the main global change driver. There are many relevant aspects associated with its impact on biodiversity, such as land-use extent, intensity and history. Chapter 3 shows how including different metrics of agricultural land use and separating the world into regions with a historical and biogeographic common history can improve the understanding of the distribution of threatened species. Threatened mammals are not always found in zones where the most impacting human activities take place; instead, this pattern varies across biogeographic realms. Realms where agricultural expansion/intensification is currently taking place show a refuge pattern (e.g. Indomalay), with more threatened species concentrated in relatively low used areas (in terms of extent and/or intensity). On the other hand, regions with a long history of human settlement and a deeply modified territory show a threat pattern (e.g. Europe), with more threatened mammals co-occurring in highly humanized areas. Historical data offer the opportunity to learn lessons from the past that can inform present and future actions. Chapter 4 explores past land use data spanning from around B.C.6000 (~establishment of agriculture) to A.D.2000. These data reveal three different general types of regions in the world, based on their trajectory of land use: low-, recently- and steadily-used areas. These three groups do not present net differences in terms of mammalian diversity, but they do differ in the way past and present land-use metrics relate to total richness or numbers of threatened mammals. In general, indicators of past human land use extent and rate of changes are the most important predictors. Interestingly, present land use values are generally less relevant to explain global patterns of mammalian distribution than past land use. In conclusion, looking at the different dimensions of human activities on Earth offers the necessary perspective to tackle global conservation problems. Together with the traditional approach of prioritizing areas that most deserve conservation funds, disentangling the particularities of each region –putting these areas into context– helps designing better conservation actions. This thesis synthesizes available global data, mapping patterns of threat for terrestrial mammals and proposing tools that could be applied to other taxonomic groups or drivers of extinctionPeer reviewe

Patrones espaciales de vulnerabilidad en mamíferos terrestres : descriptores socioeconómicos, de uso del suelo y específicos de especie a escala global

Programa de Doctorado en Estudios MedioambientalesWe are living an era of great and accelerated global changes. Biodiversity as a whole is exposed to human activities in the entire Earth surface; consequently, a generalized deterioration of its conservation status is taking place. Besides, the impact of humans on the biosphere keeps increasing given the present demand for food, fuels and other natural resources, resulting from population and consumption growth. Understanding which species and areas are most affected by these activities, and which are the main drivers of their current status is a crucial step to avoid further damages and preserve some of the remaining natural values. In the present doctoral thesis I expand the concept of vulnerability to explore the distribution of extinction risk at a global scale. A vulnerable species is one that has a greater chance of becoming extinct given its intrinsic characteristics and the external conditions to which it is exposed. A vulnerable area is one that is more likely to disappear as such, given its combination of species and environmental (including human) features. The present thesis focuses on spatial vulnerability incorporating knowledge at the species level to improve the understanding of global changes. Terrestrial mammals are selected to investigate the different factors associated to vulnerability, because they are a widely distributed and charismatic group, for which information on intrinsic characteristics and main threats is largely available. At the species level, predictors of vulnerability for terrestrial mammals have been widely identified; these can broadly be separated into species intrinsic traits and extrinsic human pressures. A spatial synthesis of both groups of factors is presented in chapter 1, identifying areas where both intrinsic and extrinsic vulnerabilities present high values (double-susceptibility areas), areas where the intrinsic is high and the extrinsic is low (intrinsic-susceptibility areas), areas where the extrinsic is high and the intrinsic is low (extrinsic-susceptibility areas), and areas where both show relatively low values (low-susceptibility areas). Instead of prioritizing one type of areas over the others, specific conservation actions are proposed to be defined according to the particularities of each area. For example, in extrinsic-susceptibility areas the emphasis should be put in controlling human activities, whereas in intrinsic-susceptibility areas, concentrating in particular species would be more advisable. Subsequent chapters focus exclusively on spatial vulnerability, first exploring the socioeconomic context (chapter 2) and then analyzing in depth the main proximate threat for mammals: human land use, explicitly considering its multiple facets (chapters 3 and 4). A country¿s socioeconomic context has an important role in conservation biology, given that many indirect factors impose a global pressure on species and ecosystems (e.g. growth in world trade, demand for timber); besides, many environmental regulations are proposed at national ¿or international¿ level. Therefore, being able to portray the situation at this scale may serve to inform decision-making. Results from chapter 2 show that countries harboring more threatened mammals are generally: rural, predominantly exporters of goods and services, intermediately dependent on receiving international tourism and have relatively high human life expectancy. On the other hand, countries without threatened mammals are primarily those that already lost the most vulnerable fauna long ago and with means to maintain their remaining sensitive mammals. These findings highlight the importance of transboundary impacts and the fact that not having threatened mammals is not necessarily a sign of good environmental conservation status. Human land use is by far the main global change driver. There are many relevant aspects associated with its impact on biodiversity, such as land-use extent, intensity and history. Chapter 3 shows how including different metrics of agricultural land use and separating the world into regions with a historical and biogeographic common history can improve the understanding of the distribution of threatened species. Threatened mammals are not always found in zones where the most impacting human activities take place; instead, this pattern varies across biogeographic realms. Realms where agricultural expansion/intensification is currently taking place show a refuge pattern (e.g. Indomalay), with more threatened species concentrated in relatively low used areas (in terms of extent and/or intensity). On the other hand, regions with a long history of human settlement and a deeply modified territory show a threat pattern (e.g. Europe), with more threatened mammals co-occurring in highly human-used areas. Past land use data offer the opportunity to learn lessons from the past that can inform present and future actions. Chapter 4 explores past land use data spanning from around B.C.6000 (~establishment of agriculture) to A.D.2000. These data reveal three different general types of regions in the world, based on their trajectory of land use: low-, recently- and steadily-used areas. These three groups do not present net differences in terms of mammalian diversity, but they do differ in the way past and present land-use metrics relate to total richness or numbers of threatened mammals. In general, indicators of past human land use extent and rate of changes are the most important predictors. Interestingly, present land use values are generally less relevant to explain global patterns of mammalian distribution than past data. In conclusion, looking at the different dimensions of human activities on Earth offers the necessary perspective to tackle global conservation problems. Together with the traditional approach of prioritizing areas that most deserve conservation funds, disentangling the particularities of each region ¿put into context¿ helps design better conservation actions. This thesis synthesizes available global data, mapping patterns of threat for terrestrial mammals and proposing tools that could be applied to other taxonomic groups.Universidad Pablo de Olavide. Departamento de Biología Molecular e Ingeniería Bioquímic

Data to create the trajectory clusters

This file contains the value for each grid-cell at the resolution and projection of the study (~110 x 110 km grid; Behrmann cylindrical equal area projection) of the land-use fraction for each temporal period considered in the KK10 model (Kaplan et al., 2011): B.C.6000, B.C.3000, B.C.1000, A.D.0, A.D.1000, A.D.1500, A.D.1750, A.D.1900, A.D.1950 and A.D. 2000. It was used to compute the trajectory-clusters. HBWID is the grid unique code

Data to fit the models

This file contains the processed information for the resolution and projection employed in the main manuscript (110 x 110 km grid; Behrmann cylindrical equal area projection). Predictors (before checking for correlation) and responses are included. A full description and original sources are found in the Supplementary Material of the paper

Spatial data to account for spatial autocorrelation

This file contains the spatial data used to calculate spatial autocorrelation and to include the residuals-based autocovariate (RAC). Spatial resolution: 110 x 110 km grid-cells; projection: Behrmann cylindrical equal area projection

Trajectory analyses of past human land use as a tool to understand present terrestrial mammals' distribution

Apart from the known environmental factors influencing species distribution at the global scale, additional anthropogenic factors need to be considered in order to understand their current extents of occurrence. Namely, threatened species should particularly be influenced by human activities, since they are known to be in decline under their influence. The role of present human activities in modeling species distribution seems clear, but there is still a facet of land use that has not yet been sufficiently explored: land-use history. In the present work we show how to summarize overall land-use trajectories based on available data ranging from c.B.C.6000 to c.A.D.2000 by using a clustering method. Then, we explore how indicators of total land use area at different time spans, rates of land-use change, or the occurrence of remarkable land-use shifts associate to the current distribution of total and threatened mammal richness by means of boosted regression trees. We find that we can separate the Earth surface into three groups, according to their trajectory of past land use: low-, recently- and steadily-used areas. Differences in total or threatened mammalian richness among clusters are not significant, however differences in the shape of the past land use- species richness relationship are relevant. This finding warn us about the risk of interpreting certain patterns as global rules, when they may actually depend on the past land-use history of an area. On the other hand, past land-use metrics are little relevant in predicting their distribution compared to latitude or total mammalian richness. Nevertheless, past land-use indicators are more informative than present land-use values, which may be pointing at the existence of a generalized extinction debt in the whole planet Earth regarding mammals. In conclusion, understanding general past land-use changes improves our ability to interpret current species distribution patterns.peerReviewe

Data from: The legacy of past human land use in current patterns of mammal distribution

Multiple environmental factors are known to shape species distributions at the global scale, including climate and topography, but understanding current extents of occurrence and biodiversity patterns requires considering anthropogenic factors as well. Numerous studies have explored the relationship between contemporary human activities and different biodiversity metrics, but the influence of past activities, such as land-use, remains poorly understood despite being one of the oldest human impacts. Here we evaluate the role of past land-use modifications in the current distribution and conservation status of mammals worldwide using spatial data characterizing human land use from c.B.C.6000 to c.A.D.2000. First, we applied a clustering method that revealed three generalized past human land-use trajectories that represent low-, recently- and steadily-used areas widely represented across the globe. Second, we fitted boosted regression trees to predict total and threatened mammalian richness, globally and within trajectory-clusters, testing the role of environmental factors and multiple human land-use metrics reflecting: total used area at different time spans, rates of land-use change, and the occurrence of remarkable land-use shifts. Environmental factors were identified as the main correlates of current mammalian richness, but several proposed metrics of past land-use were also relevant predictors. Overall, these results highlight the likely existence of a land-use legacy in some regions of the world that has influenced the distribution of extant mammals, particularly of those currently classified as threatened. Even if we cannot change that legacy, our results show that we need to account for past human impacts to understand present biodiversity patterns and, arguably, to guide future actions