The tyranny of regional unemployment rates

Although there is a substantial body of literature on labour market analysis, most of it ignores the spatial dimension of the labour market. A spatial perspective in analysing labour market processes is important for several reasons. FIRST, labour markets are by no means as homogeneous as conventional labour market theories assume. SECOND, most countries are displaying strong regional variations in the dynamics of unemployment. THIRD, geographical space exerts a frictional effect on labour market processes. Regional unemployment rates appear to be the most important indicators for analysing labour market processes from a spatial perspective. The paper aims to discuss some of the problems that are associated with the use of regional unemployment rates. We will focus attention on conceptual problems, problems of data quality and on some of the new problems that have arisen due to the widespread use of new computer technology. Solutions to many of the problems are obvious, but many of the new problems will require some extra effort for their solution. The tyranny that threatens the research community is that regional unemployment data exercise a power over us that can lead the naive to misinterpretations. The data may mislead even the most righteous among us. A good deal of research effort is often given to overcome the tyranny that is found in the columns and rows that the lay public likes to call statistics. The discussion will be enriched by means of a study utilizing regional unemployment rates at the district level in West Germany.

Lunar Resources Using Moderate Spectral Resolution Visible and Near-infrared Spectroscopy: Al/si and Soil Maturity

Modern visible and near-infrared detectors are critically important for the accurate identification and relative abundance measurement of lunar minerals; however, even a very small number of well-placed visible and near-infrared bandpass channels provide a significant amount of general information about crucial lunar resources. The Galileo Solid State Imaging system (SSI) multispectral data are an important example of this. Al/Si and soil maturity will be discussed as examples of significant general lunar resource information that can be gleaned from moderate spectral resolution visible and near-infrared data with relative ease. Because quantitative-albedo data are necessary for these kinds of analyses, data such as those obtained by Galileo SSI are critical. SSI obtained synoptic digital multispectral image data for both the nearside and farside of the Moon during the first Galileo Earth-Moon encounter in December 1990. The data consist of images through seven filters with bandpasses ranging from 0.40 microns in the ultraviolet to 0.99 microns in the near-infrared. Although these data are of moderate spectral resolution, they still provide information for the following lunar resources: (1) titanium content of mature mare soils based upon the 0.40/0.56-micron (UV/VIS) ratio; (2) mafic mineral abundance based upon the 0.76/0.99-micron ratio; and (3) the maturity or exposure age of the soils based upon the 0.56-0.76-micron continuum and the 0.76/0.99-micron ratio. Within constraints, these moderate spectral resolution visible and near-infrared reflectance data can also provide elemental information such as Al/Si for mature highland soils

The perplexing continuum slope of Mars: Effects of thin ferric coatings and viewing geometry

The experiment discussed here was designed to constrain interpretations of variations in continuum slope variations which define several spectral annuli on the flanks of Olympus Mons, observed in the Imaging Spectrometer (IMS) data. The IMS Olympus Mons data reveal that the rings, seen as alternating brighter and darker reflectance in Viking data, correspond to annuli of alternating shallower and steeper continuum slope. At least three factors contributing to continuum slope are identified: ferric coating thickness, viewing geometry, and surface texture. Because the Olympus Mons spectral annuli were observed at nearly constant backscatter geometries in the ISM data, with only slight viewing variations due to the volcanoe's flank slopes, the difference of continuum slope between annuli probably cannot be explained by viewing geometry alone. This suggests that the variation of some fundamental surface characteristics, such as ferric dust/rind thickness or surface texture, is the cause of the Olympus Mons special annuli observed in the ISM imaging spectrometer data

Improved simulation of extreme precipitation in a high-resolution atmosphere model

Climate models often underestimate the magnitude of extreme precipitation. We compare the performance of a high-resolution (∼0.25°) time-slice atmospheric simulation (1979–2005) of the Community Earth System Model 1.0 in representing daily extreme precipitation events against those of the same model at lower resolutions (∼1° and 2°). We find significant increases in the simulated levels of daily extreme precipitation over Europe, the United States, and Australia. In many cases the increase in high percentiles (>95th) of daily precipitation leads to better agreement with observational data sets. For lower percentiles, we find that increasing resolution does not significantly increase values of simulated precipitation. We argue that the reduced biases mainly result from the higher resolution models resolving more key physical processes controlling heavy precipitation. We conclude that while high resolution is vital for accurately simulating extreme precipitation, considerable biases remain at the highest available model resolutions

Crustal heterogeneity of the moon viewed from the Galileo SSI camera: Lunar sample calibrations and compositional implications

Summaries are given of the spectral calibration, compositional parameters, nearside color, and limb and farside color of the Moon. The farside of the Moon, a large area of lunar crust, is dominated by heavily cratered terrain and basin deposits that represent the products of the first half billion years of crustal evolution. Continuing analysis of the returned lunar samples suggest a magma ocean and/or serial magmatism model for evolution of the primordial lunar crust. However, testing either hypothesis requires compositional information about the crustal stratigraphy and lateral heterogeneity. Resolution of this important planetary science issue is dependent on additional data. New Galileo multispectral images indicate previously unknown local and regional compositional diversity of the farside crust. Future analysis will focus on individual features and a more detailed assessment of crustal stratigraphy and heterogeneity

Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Nino responses

International audienceThere remains large intersimulation spread in the hydrologic responses to tropical volcanic eruptions, and identifying the sources of diverse responses has important implications for assessing the side effects of solar geoengineering and improving decadal predictions. Here, we show that the intersimulation spread in the global monsoon drying response strongly relates to diverse El Niño responses to tropical eruptions. Most of the coupled climate models simulate El Niño-like equatorial eastern Pacific warming after volcanic eruptions but with different amplitudes, which drive a large spread of summer monsoon weakening and corresponding precipitation reduction. Two factors are further identified for the diverse El Niño responses. Different volcanic forcings induce systematic differences in the Maritime Continent drying and subsequent westerly winds over equatorial western Pacific, varying El Niño intensity. The internally generated warm water volume over the equatorial western Pacific in the pre-eruption month also contributes to the diverse El Niño development

Global forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation.

Forests can store large amounts of carbon and provide essential ecosystem services. Massive tree planting is thus sometimes portrayed as a panacea to mitigate climate change and related impacts. Recent controversies about the potential benefits and drawbacks of forestation have centered on the carbon storage potential of forests and the local or global thermodynamic impacts. Here we discuss how global-scale forestation and deforestation change the Earth's energy balance, thereby affect the global atmospheric circulation and even have profound effects on the ocean circulation. We perform multicentury coupled climate model simulations in which preindustrial vegetation cover is either completely forested or deforested and carbon dioxide mixing ratio is kept constant. We show that global-scale forestation leads to a weakening and poleward shift of the Northern mid-latitude circulation, slows-down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and affects the strength of the Hadley cell, whereas deforestation leads to reversed changes. Consequently, both land surface changes substantially affect regional precipitation, temperature, clouds, and surface wind patterns across the globe. The design process of large-scale forestation projects thus needs to take into account global circulation adjustments and their influence on remote climate

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions

Sediment-Induced Amplification in the Northeastern United States: a Case Study in Providence, Rhode Island

We employed ambient-noise measurements to assess the potential for seismic site response in sediment-filled valleys that intersect beneath downtown Providence, Rhode Island. At eight valley stations and at two sites on an adjacent bedrock highland, we recorded ground motion from two types of sources: pile drivers at a local construction site and ambient microtremors. At all valley sites where sediment thicknesses exceed 10 m, spectral ratios contain amplitude peaks at frequencies of 1.5 to 3.0 Hz. In contrast, spectral ratios from the two sites on the bedrock highland where sediment cover is less than 4-m thick are relatively flat within this frequency range. A variety of borehole logs identified two fundamental sediment types (soft sediment and a consolidated glacial till) and were used to map layer thicknesses over the entire study region. Refraction data constrained P-wave velocity in the bedrock to be 3680 ± 160 m/sec and indicated two soft-sediment layers with P-wave velocities of 300 ± 50 and 1580 ± 120 m/sec. Using a one-dimensional reflection matrix technique, we matched the spectral-ratio peak observed at each valley site with the frequency of fundamental resonance predicted for local layer thicknesses and velocities. A positive correlation between the best-fitting soft-sediment velocities and bedrock depth may reflect greater compaction in the deepest sediments or a locally two-dimensional sediment resonance at the deepest sediment sites. We conclude that unconsolidated sediment layers under downtown Providence have the potential to amplify earthquake ground motion at frequencies damaging to engineered structures

Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically relied on making assumptions about forced changes in the mean and variability. With the advent of multiple single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), these assumptions can be scrutinized, as they allow a more robust separation between sources of uncertainty. Here, the framework from Hawkins and Sutton (2009) for uncertainty partitioning is revisited for temperature and precipitation projections using seven SMILEs and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives. The original approach is shown to work well at global scales (potential method bias < 20 %), while at local to regional scales such as British Isles temperature or Sahel precipitation, there is a notable potential method bias (up to 50 %), and more accurate partitioning of uncertainty is achieved through the use of SMILEs. Whenever internal variability and forced changes therein are important, the need to evaluate and improve the representation of variability in models is evident. The available SMILEs are shown to be a good representation of the CMIP5 model diversity in many situations, making them a useful tool for interpreting CMIP5. CMIP6 often shows larger absolute and relative model uncertainty than CMIP5, although part of this difference can be reconciled with the higher average transient climate response in CMIP6. This study demonstrates the added value of a collection of SMILEs for quantifying and diagnosing uncertainty in climate projections