Modern space/time geostatistics using river distances: theory and applications for water quality mapping

The Clean Water Act requires that state and local agencies assess all river miles for potential impairments. However, due to the large number of river miles to be assessed, as well as budget and resource limitations, many states cannot feasibly meet this requirement. Therefore, there is a need for a framework that can accurately assess water quality at un-monitored locations, using limited data resources. Many researchers employ geostatistical techniques such as kriging and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) to interpolate values in areas where no data exist. These techniques rely on the spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation between existing data points to estimate at un-monitored locations. This autocorrelation is traditionally a function of the Euclidean distance between those data points; however, a Euclidean distance does not take into account that many water quality variables may be spatially correlated due to the hydrogeography of the system. The focus of this work is the development of a space/time geostatistical framework for estimating and mapping water quality along river networks by using river distances instead of the traditional Euclidean distance. The Bayesian Maximum Entropy method of modern space/time geostatistics is modified and extended to incorporate the use of river distances to improve the estimation of basin-wide water quality. This new framework, termed river-BME, uses geostatistical models that integrate the use of permissible covariance functions with secondary information along with river distance. Factors, such as network complexity, are explored to determine the efficacy of using river-BME for water quality estimation. Additionally, simulation experiments and three real world case studies provide a broad application of this framework for a variety of basins and water quality parameters, including dissolved oxygen, Escherichia coli, and fish tissue mercury. Results show that the use of river-BME produces significantly more accurate estimates of water quality at un-monitored locations than traditional Euclidean based methods by more than 30%. Overall, this work provides a new tool for applying modern space/time geostatistics using river distances. It has the potential to aid not only future researchers but can ultimately provide environmental managers with the information necessary to better allocate resources and protect ecological and human health

Using river distances in the space/time estimation of dissolved oxygen along two impaired river networks in New Jersey

Understanding surface water quality is a critical step towards protecting human health and ecological stability. Because of resource deficiencies and the large number of river miles needing assessment, there is a need for a methodology that can accurately depict river water quality where data do not exist. The objective of this research is to implement a methodology that incorporates a river metric into the space/time analysis of dissolved oxygen data for two impaired river basins. An efficient algorithm is developed to calculate river distances within the BMElib statistical package for space/time geostatistics. We find that using a river distance in a space/time context leads to an appreciable 10% reduction in the overall estimation error, and results in maps of DO that are more realistic than those obtained using a Euclidean distance. As a result river distance is used in the subsequent non-attainment assessment of DO for two impaired river basins in New Jersey

Modern Space/Time Geostatistics Using River Distances: Data Integration of Turbidity and E. coli Measurements to Assess Fecal Contamination Along the Raritan River in New Jersey

Escherichia coli (E.coli) is a widely used indicator of fecal contamination in water bodies. External contact and subsequent ingestion of bacteria coming from fecal contamination can lead to harmful health effects. Since E.coli data are sometimes limited, the objective of this study is to use secondary information in the form of turbidity to improve the assessment of E.coli at un-monitored locations. We obtained all E.coli and turbidity monitoring data available from existing monitoring networks for the 2000 – 2006 time period for the Raritan River Basin, New Jersey. Using collocated measurements we developed a predictive model of E.coli from turbidity data. Using this model, soft data are constructed for E.coli given turbidity measurements at 739 space/time locations where only turbidity was measured. Finally, the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method of modern space/time geostatistics was used for the data integration of monitored and predicted E.coli data to produce maps showing E.coli concentration estimated daily across the river basin. The addition of soft data in conjunction with the use of river distances reduced estimation error by about 30%. Furthermore, based on these maps, up to 35% of river miles in the Raritan Basin had a probability of E.coli impairment greater than 90% on the most polluted day of the study period

Rhesus monkey rhadinovirus (RRV): construction of a RRV-GFP recombinant virus and development of assays to assess viral replication

Rhesus monkey rhadinovirus (RRV) is a gamma-2-herpesvirus that is closely related to Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV/HHV-8). Lack of an efficient culture system to grow high titers of virus, and the lack of an in vivo animal model system, has hampered the study of KSHV replication and pathogenesis. RRV is capable of replicating to high titers on fibroblasts, thus facilitating the construction of recombinant rhadinoviruses. In addition, the ability to experimentally infect naïve rhesus macaques with RRV makes it an excellent model system to study gamma-herpesvirus replication. Our study describes, for the first time, the construction of a GFP-expressing RRV recombinant virus using a traditional homologous recombination strategy. We have also developed two new methods for determining viral titers of RRV including a traditional viral plaque assay and a quantitative real-time PCR assay. We have compared the replication of wild-type RRV with that of the RRV-GFP recombinant virus in one-step growth curves. We have also measured the sensitivity of RRV to a small panel of antiviral drugs. The development of both the recombination strategy and the viral quantitation assays for RRV will lay the foundation for future studies to evaluate the contribution of individual genes to viral replication both in vitro and in vivo

Space/Time Analysis of Fecal Pollution and Rainfall in an Eastern North Carolina Estuary

The Newport River Estuary (NPRE) is a high priority shellfish harvesting area in eastern North Carolina (NC) that is impaired due to fecal contamination, specifically exceeding recommended levels for fecal coliforms. A hydrologic-driven mean trend model was developed, as a function of antecedent rainfall, in the NPRE to predict levels of E. coli (EC, measured as a proxy for fecal coliforms). This mean trend model was integrated in a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework to produce informative Space/Time (S/T) maps depicting fecal contamination across the NPRE during winter and summer months. These maps showed that during dry winter months, corresponding to the oyster harvesting season in NC (October 1st to March 30th), predicted EC concentrations were below the shellfish harvesting standard (14 MPN per 100 ml). However, after substantial rainfall 3.81 cm (1.5 inches), the NPRE did not appear to meet this requirement. Warmer months resulted in the predicted EC concentrations exceeding the threshold for the NPRE. Predicted ENT concentrations were generally below the recreational water quality threshold (104 MPN per 100 ml), except for warmer months after substantial rainfall. Once established, this combined approach produces near real-time visual information on which to base water quality management decisions

Friends or foes? migrants and sub-state nationalists in Europe

How do sub-state nationalists respond to the growing presence of cultural diversity in their ‘homelands’ resulting from migration? Sub-state nationalists in Europe, in ‘nations without states’ such as Catalonia and Scotland, have been challenging the traditional nation-state model for many decades. While the arguments in favour of autonomy or independence levelled by these movements have become more complex, sub-state nationalist movements remain grounded by their perceived national community that is distinct from the majority nation. Migration to the ‘homeland’ of a sub-state nation, then, presents a conundrum for sub-state elites that we label the ‘legitimation paradox’: too much internal diversity may undermine the claim to cultural distinctiveness. We engage with three common intervening variables thought to influence how sub-state nationalists confront the ‘legitimation paradox’: civic/ethnic nationalism, degree of political autonomy, and party competition. Our overarching argument is that none of these factors have a unidirectional or determinate effect on the sub-state nationalism-immigration nexus, which is why the nuanced case studies that comprise this Special Issue are worthwhile endeavours

Geographic clustering of elevated blood heavy metal levels in pregnant women

Abstract Background Cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As) exposure is ubiquitous and has been associated with higher risk of growth restriction and cardiometabolic and neurodevelopmental disorders. However, cost-efficient strategies to identify at-risk populations and potential sources of exposure to inform mitigation efforts are limited. The objective of this study was to describe the spatial distribution and identify factors associated with Cd, Pb, Hg, and As concentrations in peripheral blood of pregnant women. Methods Heavy metals were measured in whole peripheral blood of 310 pregnant women obtained at gestational age ~12 weeks. Prenatal residential addresses were geocoded and geospatial analysis (Getis-Ord Gi* statistics) was used to determine if elevated blood concentrations were geographically clustered. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with elevated blood metal levels and cluster membership. Results Geospatial clusters for Cd and Pb were identified with high confidence (p-value for Gi* statistic <0.01). The Cd and Pb clusters comprised 10.5 and 9.2 % of Durham County residents, respectively. Medians and interquartile ranges of blood concentrations (μg/dL) for all participants were Cd 0.02 (0.01–0.04), Hg 0.03 (0.01–0.07), Pb 0.34 (0.16–0.83), and As 0.04 (0.04–0.05). In the Cd cluster, medians and interquartile ranges of blood concentrations (μg/dL) were Cd 0.06 (0.02–0.16), Hg 0.02 (0.00–0.05), Pb 0.54 (0.23–1.23), and As 0.05 (0.04–0.05). In the Pb cluster, medians and interquartile ranges of blood concentrations (μg/dL) were Cd 0.03 (0.02–0.15), Hg 0.01 (0.01–0.05), Pb 0.39 (0.24–0.74), and As 0.04 (0.04–0.05). Co-exposure with Pb and Cd was also clustered, the p-values for the Gi* statistic for Pb and Cd was <0.01. Cluster membership was associated with lower education levels and higher pre-pregnancy BMI. Conclusions Our data support that elevated blood concentrations of Cd and Pb are spatially clustered in this urban environment compared to the surrounding areas. Spatial analysis of metals concentrations in peripheral blood or urine obtained routinely during prenatal care can be useful in surveillance of heavy metal exposure

Particle and VOC emission factor measurements for anthropogenic sources in West Africa

A number of campaigns have been carried out to establish the emission factors of pollutants from fuel combustion in West Africa, as part of work package 2 ("Air Pollution and Health") of the DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) FP7 program. Emission sources considered here include wood (hevea and iroko) and charcoal burning, charcoal making, open trash burning, and vehicle emissions, including trucks, cars, buses and two-wheeled vehicles. Emission factors of total particulate matter (TPM), elemental carbon (EC), primary organic carbon (OC) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have been established. In addition, emission factor measurements were performed in combustion chambers in order to reproduce field burning conditions for a tropical hardwood (hevea), and obtain particulate emission factors by size (PM0.25, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10). Particle samples were collected on quartz fiber filters and analyzed using gravimetric method for TPM and thermal methods for EC and OC. The emission factors of 58 VOC species were determined using offline sampling on a sorbent tube. Emission factor results for two species of tropical hardwood burning of EC, OC and TPM are 0.98 ± 0.46 g kg-1 of fuel burned (g kg-1), 11.05 ± 4.55 and 41.12 ± 24.62 g kg-1, respectively. For traffic sources, the highest emission factors among particulate species are found for the two-wheeled vehicles with two-stroke engines (2.74 g kg-1 fuel for EC, 65.11 g kg-1 fuel for OC and 496 g kg-1 fuel for TPM). The largest VOC emissions are observed for two-stroke two-wheeled vehicles, which are up to 3 times higher than emissions from light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles. Isoprene and monoterpenes, which are usually associated with biogenic emissions, are present in almost all anthropogenic sources investigated during this work and could be as significant as aromatic emissions in wood burning (1 g kg-1 fuel). EC is primarily emitted in the ultrafine fraction, with 77 % of the total mass being emitted as particles smaller than 0.25 μm. The particles and VOC emission factors obtained in this study are generally higher than those in the literature whose values are discussed in this paper. This study underlines the important role of in situ measurements in deriving realistic and representative emission factors

Too Big to Fail — U.S. Banks’ Regulatory Alchemy: Converting an Obscure Agency Footnote into an “At Will” Nullification of Dodd-Frank’s Regulation of the Multi-Trillion Dollar Financial Swaps Market

The multi-trillion-dollar market for, what was at that time wholly unregulated, over-the-counter derivatives (“swaps”) is widely viewed as a principal cause of the 2008 worldwide financial meltdown. The Dodd-Frank Act, signed into law on July 21, 2010, was expressly considered by Congress to be a remedy for this troublesome deregulatory problem. The legislation required the swaps market to comply with a host of business conduct and anti-competitive protections, including that the swaps market be fully transparent to U.S. financial regulators, collateralized, and capitalized. The statute also expressly provides that it would cover foreign subsidiaries of big U.S. financial institutions if their swaps trading could adversely impact the U.S. economy or represent the use of extraterritorial trades as an attempt to “evade” Dodd-Frank. In July 2013, the CFTC promulgated an 80-page, triple-columned, and single-spaced “guidance” implementing Dodd-Frank’s extraterritorial reach, i.e., that manner in which Dodd-Frank would apply to swaps transactions executed outside the United States. The key point of that guidance was that swaps trading within the “guaranteed” foreign subsidiaries of U.S. bank holding company swaps dealers were subject to all of Dodd-Frank’s swaps regulations wherever in the world those subsidiaries’ swaps were executed. At that time, the standardized industry swaps agreement contemplated that, inter alia, U.S. bank holding company swaps dealers’ foreign subsidiaries would be “guaranteed” by their corporate parent, as was true since 1992. In August 2013, without notifying the CFTC, the principal U.S. bank holding company swaps dealer trade association privately circulated to its members standard contractual language that would, for the first time, “deguarantee” their foreign subsidiaries. By relying only on the obscure footnote 563 of the CFTC guidance’s 662 footnotes, the trade association assured its swaps dealer members that the newly deguaranteed foreign subsidiaries could (if they so chose) no longer be subject to Dodd-Frank. As a result, it has been reported (and it also has been understood by many experts within the swaps industry) that a substantial portion of the U.S. swaps market has shifted from the large U.S. bank holding companies swaps dealers and their U.S. affiliates to their newly deguaranteed “foreign” subsidiaries, with the attendant claim by these huge big U.S. bank swaps dealers that Dodd-Frank swaps regulation would not apply to these transactions. The CFTC also soon discovered that these huge U.S. bank holding company swaps dealers were “arranging, negotiating, and executing” (“ANE”) these swaps in the United States with U.S. bank personnel and, only after execution in the U.S., were these swaps formally “assigned” to the U.S. banks’ newly “deguaranteed” foreign subsidiaries with the accompanying claim that these swaps, even though executed in the U.S., were not covered by Dodd-Frank. In October 2016, the CFTC proposed a rule that would have closed the “deguarantee” and “ANE” loopholes completely. However, because it usually takes at least a year to finalize a “proposed” rule, this proposed rule closing the loopholes in question was not finalized prior to the inauguration of President Trump. All indications are that it will never be finalized during a Trump Administration. Thus, in the shadow of the recent tenth anniversary of the Lehman failure, there is an understanding among many market regulators and swaps trading experts that large portions of the swaps market have moved from U.S. bank holding company swaps dealers and their U.S. affiliates to their newly deguaranteed foreign affiliates where Dodd- Frank swaps regulation is not being followed. However, what has not moved abroad is the very real obligation of the lender of last resort to rescue these U.S. swaps dealer bank holding companies if they fail because of poorly regulated swaps in their deguaranteed foreign subsidiaries, i.e., the U.S. taxpayer. While relief is unlikely to be forthcoming from the Trump Administration or the Republican-controlled Senate, some other means will have to be found to avert another multi-trillion-dollar bank bailout and/or a financial calamity caused by poorly regulated swaps on the books of big U.S. banks. This paper notes that the relevant statutory framework affords state attorneys general and state financial regulators the right to bring so-called “parens patriae” actions in federal district court to enforce, inter alia, Dodd- Frank on behalf of a state’s citizens. That kind of litigation to enforce the statute’s extraterritorial provisions is now badly needed