Ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections from healthcare and community testing in the UK

The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained through healthcare and community testing is generally unknown and expected to vary depending on natural factors and changes in test-seeking behaviour. Here we use population surveillance data and reported daily case numbers in the United Kingdom to estimate the rate of case ascertainment. We mathematically describe the relationship between the ascertainment rate, the daily number of reported cases, population prevalence, and the sensitivity of PCR and Lateral Flow tests as a function time since exposure. Applying this model to the data, we estimate that 20%–40% of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK were ascertained with a positive test with results varying by time and region. Cases of the Alpha variant were ascertained at a higher rate than the wild type variants circulating in the early pandemic, and higher again for the Delta variant and Omicron BA.1 sub-lineage, but lower for the BA.2 sub-lineage. Case ascertainment was higher in adults than in children. We further estimate the daily number of infections and compare this to mortality data to estimate that the infection fatality rate increased by a factor of 3 during the period dominated by the Alpha variant, and declined in line with the distribution of vaccines. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”

A descriptive analysis of the growth of unrecorded interactions amongst cattle-raising premises in Scotland and their implications for disease spread

Background  Individual animal-level reporting of cattle movements between agricultural holdings is in place in Scotland, and the resulting detailed movement data are used to inform epidemiological models and intervention. However, recent years have seen a rapid increase in the use of registered links that allow Scottish farmers to move cattle between linked holdings without reporting.  Results  By analyzing these registered trade links as a number of different networks, we find that the geographical reach of these registered links has increased over time, with many holdings linked indirectly to a large number of holdings, some potentially geographically distant. This increase was not linked to decreases in recorded movements at the holding level. When combining registered links with reported movements, we find that registered links increase the size of a possible outward chain of infection from a Scottish holding. The impact on the maximum size is considerably greater than the impact on the mean.  Conclusions  We outline the magnitude and geographic extent of that increase, and show that this growth both has the potential to substantially increase the size of epidemics driven by livestock movements, and undermines the extensive, invaluable recording within the cattle tracing system in Scotland and, by extension, the rest of Great Britain

The Firebreak Problem

Suppose we have a network that is represented by a graph $G$. Potentially a fire (or other type of contagion) might erupt at some vertex of $G$. We are able to respond to this outbreak by establishing a firebreak at $k$ other vertices of $G$, so that the fire cannot pass through these fortified vertices. The question that now arises is which $k$ vertices will result in the greatest number of vertices being saved from the fire, assuming that the fire will spread to every vertex that is not fully behind the $k$ vertices of the firebreak. This is the essence of the {\sc Firebreak} decision problem, which is the focus of this paper. We establish that the problem is intractable on the class of split graphs as well as on the class of bipartite graphs, but can be solved in linear time when restricted to graphs having constant-bounded treewidth, or in polynomial time when restricted to intersection graphs. We also consider some closely related problems

A modeling study of the impact of treatment policies on the evolution of resistance in sea lice on salmon farms

Salmonid aquaculture is an important source of nutritious food with more than 2 million tonnes of fish produced each year. In most salmon producing countries, sea lice represent a major barrier to the sustainability of salmonid aquaculture. This issue is exacerbated by widespread resistance to chemical treatments on both sides of the Atlantic. Regulation for sea lice management mostly involves reporting lice counts and treatment thresholds, which depending on interpretation may encourage preemptive treatments. We have developed a stochastic simulation model of sea lice infestation including the lice life-cycle, genetic resistance to treatment, a wildlife reservoir, salmon growth and stocking practices in the context of infestation, and coordination of treatment between farms. Farms report infestation levels to a central organisation, and may then cooperate or not when coordinated treatment is triggered. Treatment practice then impacts the level of resistance in the surrounding sea lice population. Our simulation finds that treatment drives selection for resistance and coordination between managers is key. We also find that position in the hydrologically-derived network of farms can impact individual farm infestation levels and the topology of this network can impact overall infestation and resistance. We show how coordination and triggering of treatment alongside varying hydrological topology of farm connections affects the evolution of lice resistance, and thus optimise salmon quality within socioeconomic and environmental constraints. Network topology drives infestation levels in cages, treatments, and hence treatment-driven resistance. Thus farmer behaviour may be highly dependent on hydrologically position and local level of infestation

A modeling study of the impact of treatment policies on the evolution of resistance in sea lice on salmon farms

Salmonid aquaculture is an important source of nutritious food with more than 2 million tonnes of fish produced each year. In most salmon producing countries, sea lice represent a major barrier to the sustainability of salmonid aquaculture. This issue is exacerbated by widespread resistance to chemical treatments on both sides of the Atlantic. Regulation for sea lice management mostly involves reporting lice counts and treatment thresholds, which depending on interpretation may encourage preemptive treatments. We have developed a stochastic simulation model of sea lice infestation including the lice life-cycle, genetic resistance to treatment, a wildlife reservoir, salmon growth and stocking practices in the context of infestation, and coordination of treatment between farms. Farms report infestation levels to a central organisation, and may then cooperate or not when coordinated treatment is triggered. Treatment practice then impacts the level of resistance in the surrounding sea lice population. Our simulation finds that treatment drives selection for resistance and coordination between managers is key. We also find that position in the hydrologically-derived network of farms can impact individual farm infestation levels and the topology of this network can impact overall infestation and resistance. We show how coordination and triggering of treatment alongside varying hydrological topology of farm connections affects the evolution of lice resistance, and thus optimise salmon quality within socioeconomic and environmental constraints. Network topology drives infestation levels in cages, treatments, and hence treatment-driven resistance. Thus farmer behaviour may be highly dependent on hydrologically position and local level of infestation

Distributed Computation and Reconfiguration in Actively Dynamic Networks

In this paper, we study systems of distributed entities that can actively modify their communication network. This gives rise to distributed algorithms that apart from communication can also exploit network reconfiguration in order to carry out a given task. At the same time, the distributed task itself may now require a global reconfiguration from a given initial network Gs to a target network Gf from a family of networks having some good properties, like small diameter. To formally capture costs associated with creating and maintaining connections, we define three reasonable edge-complexity measures: the total edge activations, the maximum activated edges per round, and the maximum activated degree of a node. We give (poly)log(n) time algorithms for the general task of transforming any Gs into a Gf of diameter (poly)log(n), while minimizing the edge-complexity. There is a natural trade-off between time and edge complexity. Our main lower bound shows that Ω(n) total edge activations and Ω(n/log n) activations per round must be paid by any algorithm (even centralized) that achieves an optimum of Θ(log n) rounds. On the positive side, we give three distributed algorithms for our general task. The first runs in O(log n) time, with at most 2n active edges per round, a total of O(n log n) edge activations, a maximum degree n − 1, and a target network of diameter 2. The second achieves bounded degree by paying an additional logarithmic factor in time and in total edge activations. It gives a target network of diameter O(log n) and uses O(n) active edges per round. Our third algorithm shows that if we slightly increase the maximum degree to polylog(n) then we can achieve a running time of o(log2n). This novel model of distributed computation and reconfiguration in actively dynamic networks and the proposed measures of the edge complexity of distributed algorithms, may open new avenues for research in the algorithmic theory of dynamic networks

Modeling the effectiveness of targeting Rift Valley fever virus vaccination using imperfect network information

Livestock movements contribute to the spread of several infectious diseases. Data on livestock movements can therefore be harnessed to guide policy on targeted interventions for controlling infectious livestock diseases, including Rift Valley fever (RVF)—a vaccine-preventable arboviral fever. Detailed livestock movement data are known to be useful for targeting control efforts including vaccination. These data are available in many countries, however, such data are generally lacking in others, including many in East Africa, where multiple RVF outbreaks have been reported in recent years. Available movement data are imperfect, and the impact of this uncertainty in the utility of movement data on informing targeting of vaccination is not fully understood. Here, we used a network simulation model to describe the spread of RVF within and between 398 wards in northern Tanzania connected by cattle movements, on which we evaluated the impact of targeting vaccination using imperfect movement data. We show that pre-emptive vaccination guided by only market movement permit data could prevent large outbreaks. Targeted control (either by the risk of RVF introduction or onward transmission) at any level of imperfect movement information is preferred over random vaccination, and any improvement in information reliability is advantageous to their effectiveness. Our modeling approach demonstrates how targeted interventions can be effectively used to inform animal and public health policies for disease control planning. This is particularly valuable in settings where detailed data on livestock movements are either unavailable or imperfect due to resource limitations in data collection, as well as challenges associated with poor compliance

Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers

© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire-dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above-ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below-ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. Synthesis: As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives

Visualization for epidemiological modelling: challenges, solutions, reflections and recommendations.

From Europe PMC via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: epub 2022-08-15, ppub 2022-10-01Publication status: PublishedFunder: UK Research and Innovation; Grant(s): ST/V006126/1, EP/V054236/1, EP/V033670/1We report on an ongoing collaboration between epidemiological modellers and visualization researchers by documenting and reflecting upon knowledge constructs-a series of ideas, approaches and methods taken from existing visualization research and practice-deployed and developed to support modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Structured independent commentary on these efforts is synthesized through iterative reflection to develop: evidence of the effectiveness and value of visualization in this context; open problems upon which the research communities may focus; guidance for future activity of this type and recommendations to safeguard the achievements and promote, advance, secure and prepare for future collaborations of this kind. In describing and comparing a series of related projects that were undertaken in unprecedented conditions, our hope is that this unique report, and its rich interactive supplementary materials, will guide the scientific community in embracing visualization in its observation, analysis and modelling of data as well as in disseminating findings. Equally we hope to encourage the visualization community to engage with impactful science in addressing its emerging data challenges. If we are successful, this showcase of activity may stimulate mutually beneficial engagement between communities with complementary expertise to address problems of significance in epidemiology and beyond. See https://ramp-vis.github.io/RAMPVIS-PhilTransA-Supplement/. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'