Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia’s evolving fire management policy

Understanding ‘saturation’ of radar signals over forests

There is an urgent need to quantify anthropogenic influence on forest carbon stocks. Using satellite-based radar imagery for such purposes has been challenged by the apparent loss of signal sensitivity to changes in forest aboveground volume (AGV) above a certain ‘saturation’ point. The causes of saturation are debated and often inadequately addressed, posing a major limitation to mapping AGV with the latest radar satellites. Using ground- and lidar-measurements across La Rioja province (Spain) and Denmark, we investigate how various properties of forest structure (average stem height, size and number density; proportion of canopy and understory cover) simultaneously influence radar backscatter. It is found that increases in backscatter due to changes in some properties (e.g. increasing stem sizes) are often compensated by equal magnitude decreases caused by other properties (e.g. decreasing stem numbers and increasing heights), contributing to the apparent saturation of the AGV-backscatter trend. Thus, knowledge of the impact of management practices and disturbances on forest structure may allow the use of radar imagery for forest biomass estimates beyond commonly reported saturation points

The distribution and amount of carbon in the largest peatland complex in Amazonia

Peatlands in Amazonian Peru are known to store large quantities of carbon, but there is high uncertainty in the spatial extent and total carbon stocks of these ecosystems. Here, we use a multi-sensor (Landsat, ALOS PALSAR and SRTM) remote sensing approach, together with field data including 24 forest census plots and 218 peat thickness measurements, to map the distribution of peatland vegetation types and calculate the combined above- and below-ground carbon stock of peatland ecosystems in the Pastaza-Marañon foreland basin in Peru. We find that peatlands cover 35 600 ± 2133 km2 and contain 3.14 (0.44–8.15) Pg C. Variation in peat thickness and bulk density are the most important sources of uncertainty in these values. One particular ecosystem type, peatland pole forest, is found to be the most carbon-dense ecosystem yet identified in Amazonia (1391 ± 710 Mg C ha−1). The novel approach of combining optical and radar remote sensing with above- and below-ground carbon inventories is recommended for developing regional carbon estimates for tropical peatlands globally. Finally, we suggest that Amazonian peatlands should be a priority for research and conservation before the developing regional infrastructure causes an acceleration in the exploitation and degradation of these ecosystems

A Range of Earth Observation Techniques for Assessing Plant Diversity

AbstractVegetation diversity and health is multidimensional and only partially understood due to its complexity. So far there is no single monitoring approach that can sufficiently assess and predict vegetation health and resilience. To gain a better understanding of the different remote sensing (RS) approaches that are available, this chapter reviews the range of Earth observation (EO) platforms, sensors, and techniques for assessing vegetation diversity. Platforms include close-range EO platforms, spectral laboratories, plant phenomics facilities, ecotrons, wireless sensor networks (WSNs), towers, air- and spaceborne EO platforms, and unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Sensors include spectrometers, optical imaging systems, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and radar. Applications and approaches to vegetation diversity modeling and mapping with air- and spaceborne EO data are also presented. The chapter concludes with recommendations for the future direction of monitoring vegetation diversity using RS