72 research outputs found

    Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure

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    Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalised clusters. We propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

    Statistically Valid Variable Importance Assessment through Conditional Permutations

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    Variable importance assessment has become a crucial step in machine-learning applications when using complex learners, such as deep neural networks, on large-scale data. Removal-based importance assessment is currently the reference approach, particularly when statistical guarantees are sought to justify variable inclusion. It is often implemented with variable permutation schemes. On the flip side, these approaches risk misidentifying unimportant variables as important in the presence of correlations among covariates. Here we develop a systematic approach for studying Conditional Permutation Importance (CPI) that is model agnostic and computationally lean, as well as reusable benchmarks of state-of-the-art variable importance estimators. We show theoretically and empirically that CPI\textit{CPI} overcomes the limitations of standard permutation importance by providing accurate type-I error control. When used with a deep neural network, CPI\textit{CPI} consistently showed top accuracy across benchmarks. An empirical benchmark on real-world data analysis in a large-scale medical dataset showed that CPI\textit{CPI} provides a more parsimonious selection of statistically significant variables. Our results suggest that CPI\textit{CPI} can be readily used as drop-in replacement for permutation-based methods

    Uncovering the structure of clinical EEG signals with self-supervised learning

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    Objective. Supervised learning paradigms are often limited by the amount of labeled data that is available. This phenomenon is particularly problematic in clinically-relevant data, such as electroencephalography (EEG), where labeling can be costly in terms of specialized expertise and human processing time. Consequently, deep learning architectures designed to learn on EEG data have yielded relatively shallow models and performances at best similar to those of traditional feature-based approaches. However, in most situations, unlabeled data is available in abundance. By extracting information from this unlabeled data, it might be possible to reach competitive performance with deep neural networks despite limited access to labels. Approach. We investigated self-supervised learning (SSL), a promising technique for discovering structure in unlabeled data, to learn representations of EEG signals. Specifically, we explored two tasks based on temporal context prediction as well as contrastive predictive coding on two clinically-relevant problems: EEG-based sleep staging and pathology detection. We conducted experiments on two large public datasets with thousands of recordings and performed baseline comparisons with purely supervised and hand-engineered approaches. Main results. Linear classifiers trained on SSL-learned features consistently outperformed purely supervised deep neural networks in low-labeled data regimes while reaching competitive performance when all labels were available. Additionally, the embeddings learned with each method revealed clear latent structures related to physiological and clinical phenomena, such as age effects. Significance. We demonstrate the benefit of SSL approaches on EEG data. Our results suggest that self-supervision may pave the way to a wider use of deep learning models on EEG data.Peer reviewe

    Assessing and tuning brain decoders: cross-validation, caveats, and guidelines

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    International audienceDecoding, ie prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on cross-validation procedures for decoding in neuroimaging. It includes a didactic overview of the relevant theoretical considerations. Practical aspects are highlighted with an extensive empirical study of the common decoders in within-and across-subject predictions, on multiple datasets –anatomical and functional MRI and MEG– and simulations. Theory and experiments outline that the popular " leave-one-out " strategy leads to unstable and biased estimates, and a repeated random splits method should be preferred. Experiments outline the large error bars of cross-validation in neuroimaging settings: typical confidence intervals of 10%. Nested cross-validation can tune decoders' parameters while avoiding circularity bias. However we find that it can be more favorable to use sane defaults, in particular for non-sparse decoders

    Predicting future cognitive decline from non-brain and multimodal brain imaging data in healthy and pathological aging

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    Previous literature has focused on predicting a diagnostic label from structural brain imaging. Since subtle changes in the brain precede a cognitive decline in healthy and pathological aging, our study predicts future decline as a continuous trajectory instead. Here, we tested whether baseline multimodal neuroimaging data improve the prediction of future cognitive decline in healthy and pathological aging. Nonbrain data (demographics, clinical, and neuropsychological scores), structural MRI, and functional connectivity data from OASIS-3 (N = 662; age = 46–96 years) were entered into cross-validated multitarget random forest models to predict future cognitive decline (measured by CDR and MMSE), on average 5.8 years into the future. The analysis was preregistered, and all analysis code is publicly available. Combining non-brain with structural data improved the continuous prediction of future cognitive decline (best test-set performance: R2 = 0.42). Cognitive performance, daily functioning, and subcortical volume drove the performance of our model. Including functional connectivity did not improve predictive accuracy. In the future, the prognosis of age-related cognitive decline may enable earlier and more effective individualized cognitive, pharmacological, and behavioral interventions

    Survival and consciousness recovery are better in the minimally conscious state than in the vegetative state

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    BACKGROUND The prognosis value of early clinical diagnosis of consciousness impairment is documented by an extremely limited number of studies, whereas it may convey important information to guide medical decisions. OBJECTIVE We aimed at determining if patients diagnosed at an early stage (<90 days after brain injury) as being in the minimally conscious state (MCS) have a better prognosis than patients in the vegetative state/Unresponsive Wakefulness syndrome (VS/UWS), independent of care limitations or withdrawal decisions. METHODS Patients hospitalized in ICUs of the Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital (Paris, France) from November 2008 to January 2011 were included and evaluated behaviourally with standardized assessment and with the Coma Recovery Scale-Revised as being either in the VS/UWS or in the MCS. They were then prospectively followed until 1July 2011 to evaluate their outcome with the GOSE. We compared survival function and outcomes of these two groups. RESULTS Both survival function and outcomes, including consciousness recovery, were significantly better in the MCS group. This difference of outcome still holds when considering only patients still alive at the end of the study. CONCLUSIONS Early accurate clinical diagnosis of VS/UWS or MCS conveys a strong prognostic value of survival and of consciousness recovery
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