Numerical Distribution Functions for Seasonal Unit Root Tests

When working with time series data observed at intervals smaller than a year, it is often necessary to test for the presence of seasonal unit roots. One of the most widely used methods for testing seasonal unit roots is that of HEGY, which provides test statistics with non-standard distributions. This paper describes a generalisation of this method for any periodicity and uses a response surface regressions approach to calculate the critical values and P values of the HEGY statistics whatever the periodicity and sample size of the data. The algorithms are prepared with the Gretl open source econometrics package and some new tables of critical values for daily, hourly and half-hourly data are presented.seasonality, unit roots, surface response analysis

Immigrants in Spain: skills acquisition and development. A regional study

The consequences of international migration for development in countries of origin and destination remain hotly debated. The immigration flows could be considered an appropriate mechanism to contribute to the development of origin countries if they recognize the qualifications of immigrants or contribute to the acquisition of skills. Correspondence analysis is used to determine the relation between education level, job position and legal situation of immigrants in Spain. The results indicate that immigrants are occupying non skilled tasks, even in the case of well educated immigrants. Furthermore, these immigrants have no options to increase their skills nor by experience (in the job) neither by theirself (attending a school), since the immigration police only authorizes very short migration. Then, Spain is not contributing appropriately to the development of origin countries.

La acción directa del transportista efectivo por impago de portes contra los contratantes del servicio transporte

La Ley 9/2013 de 4 de julio por la que se modifica la Ley de Ordenación de los Transportes Terrestres ha consagrado en su Disposición Adicional Sexta la denominada acción directa por el impago de portes que permite a los porteadores efectivos dirigirse contra quienes hubieren contratado el transporte no satisfecho. La atribución al porteador efectivo de una acción de reclamación por impago de portes destinada no sólo contra el cargador contractual, que es quién ha celebrado dicho contrato de transporte, sino contra todos aquellos que anteriormente le hubieran precedido en la cadena de la subcontratación, constituye una significativa novedad en el panorama normativo del contrato de transporte terrestre que merece ser analizada con detenimiento ante las importantes consecuencias que puede implicar.Este trabajo es el resultado de las investigaciones realizadas en el Proyecto de Investigación del MEC “Soluciones jurídicas en materia de documentación y responsabilidad ante la reestructuración del mercado de transporte” (DER2012-37543-C03-02) dirigido por el Prof. José Manuel Martín Osante

La persecución de los malos tratos en el ámbito familiar. El papel del abogado/a

[ES] La violencia familiar es una situación compleja que para poder resolverse debe ser objeto de un enfoque distinto en el proceso educativo y de formación de las personas, resultando totalmente necesarios los mecanismos legales sancionatorios. La necesidad de información a las víctimas de estos delitos es una cuestión prioritaria, para que puedan conocer la trascendencia de sus derechos así como las consecuencias de la presentación de una denuncia desde el punto de vista del proceso. En este sentido, la formación de los operadores jurídicos es imprescindible para atender adecuadamente a las víctimas y conseguir así una mejora en la calidad de la asistencia.[EU] Familia barruko biolentzia oso gai konplikatua da eta ebatzi ahal izateko, edukazio prozesuan eta pertsonaren formakuntzan era ezberdinez tratatu behar da, era berean beharrezkoak izanik zigor erreakziobide legalak. Lehen mailako bihurtzen da delitu horien biktimak behar izaten duten informazioa beraien eskubideak zein diren jakin dezaten eta aurkeztu duten salaketak izango dituzten ondorioak ezagutu ditzaten. Operadore juridikoen formakuntza era berean, behar beharrezkoa bilakatzen da, biktima horiek behar bezala aintzat hartzeko eta lan horretan kalitate handiagoarekin jokatzeko.[FR] La violence familiale est une situation complexe qui pour pouvoir être résolue doit faire l’objet d’une analyse différente dans le processus éducatif et de formation des personnes, en trouvant totalement nécessaires les mécanismes légaux de sanction. La nécessité d’information aux victimes de ces infractions est une question prioritaire, pour qu’ils puissent connaître l’importance de leurs droits ainsi que les conséquences d’intenter une action du point de vue de la procédure. En ce sens, la formation des opérateurs juridiques est indispensable pour s’occuper adéquatement des victimes et d’obtenir ainsi une amélioration dans la qualité de l’assistance.[EN] The family violence is a complex situation that to be solved must be object of a different approach in the education and training process, being totally necessary the penalizing mechanisms. The need to inform the victims of these crimes is a priority question, so that they can know the importance of their rights as well as the consequences of taking a legal action from the point of view of the process. In this sense, the legal operators’ formation is essential to treat the victims suitably and to obtain therefore an improvement in the quality of the assistance

Numerical Distribution Functions for Seasonal Unit Root Tests

When working with time series data observed at intervals smaller than a year, it is often necessary to test for the presence of seasonal unit roots. One of the most widely used methods for testing seasonal unit roots is that of HEGY, which provides test statistics with non-standard distributions. This paper describes a generalisation of this method for any periodicity and uses a response surface regressions approach to calculate the critical values and P values of the HEGY statistics whatever the periodicity and sample size of the data. The algorithms are prepared with the Gretl open source econometrics package and some new tables of critical values for daily, hourly and half-hourly data are presented.Financial support from research project ECO2010-15332 from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, and Econometrics Research Group IT-334-07 from the Basque Government are gratefully acknowledged. The SGI/IZO-SGIker UPV/EHU is gratefully aknowledged for its generous allocation of computational resource

SURGAT: Seasonal Unit Roots Graphical Analysis and Testing device.

SURGAT is a RATS menu-driven program to help in the analysis of the seasonal component and the trend of a (quarterly, monthly or annual) time series. Once the series is selected, a set of simple transformations may be applied: log, regular difference, seasonal difference, regular+seasonal difference, the series without its deterministic trend, without its deterministic seasonal, estimated efficiently in both cases by means of a deterministic+autoregressive model. The procedure offers several graphs of the series and its transformations: 1- the series, ACF , PACF and spectrum 2- seasonal filters 3- seasonal paths (Buys-Ballot plots) 4- regular paths The program also contains a menu for testing unit roots over the series and its transformations, applying the tests: 1- ADF, 2- HEGY, 3- KPSS, 4- Canova-Hansen.Codec, RATS, Unit roots, Canova-Hansen, HEGY

TRAMO/SEATS y X12ARIMA. Breve guía de acceso mediante Gretl

Aquí se explica el funcionamiento de los enlaces con TRAMO/SEATS y X12ARIMA de Gretl. Se describe su forma de utilización y la equivalencia entre las entradas de menú de Gretl y los parámetros en línea de instrucciones de TRAMO/SEATS.Gretl, TRAMO, SEATS, X12ARIMA, codec

Resumen de las evidencias científicas de la eficacia del ejercicio físico en las enfermedades cardiovasculares

ResumenLas enfermedades cardiovasculares son las más prevalentes en la sociedad occidental. En las últimas décadas, innumerables publicaciones informan del poder terapéutico del ejercicio físico (EF) en estas patologías. El objetivo de este trabajo ha sido buscar, valorar y resumir los resultados de las mejores pruebas científicas publicadas, sobre el efecto del EF, en la mortalidad y morbilidad de pacientes con enfermedad coronaria, insuficiencia cardiaca, hipertensión arterial, claudicación intermitente e ictus. Se buscaron revisiones sistemáticas en Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews y Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects. Se concluye que, tanto el entrenamiento aeróbico, como el de fuerza son seguros y eficaces en la disminución de la mortalidad y morbilidad en la mejora de algunos signos y síntomas, y en el incremento de la función física en enfermos cardiovasculares.AbstractCardiovascular diseases are among the most widespread in Western culture. In recent decades, numerous publications have assessed the effectiveness of physical exercise (PE) in these pathologies. The aim of this study was to search for, evaluate and summarize the results of the most conclusive scientific evidence published on the effectiveness of PE on mortality and morbidity in patients with coronary artery disease, heart failure, hypertension, intermittent claudication, and stroke. We searched for systematic reviews in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects. In conclusion, both aerobic and strength training are safe and effective in reducing mortality and morbidity, improving signs and symptoms, and increasing physical function in patients with cardiovascular disease

On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league

We consider the problem of using the points a given team has in the First Division Spanish Soccer League to estimate its probabilities of achieving a specific objective, such as, for example, staying in the first division or playing the European Champions League. We started thinking about this specific problem and how to approach it after reading that some soccer coaches indicate that a team in the first division guarantees its staying in that division if it has a total of 42 points at the end of the regular season. This problem differs from the typical probability estimation problem because we only know the actual cumulative score a given team has at some point during the regular season. Under this setting a series of different assumptions can be made to predict the probability of interest at the end of the season. We describe the specific theoretical probability model using the multinomial distribution and, then, introduce two approximations to compute the probability of interest, as well as the exact method. The different proposed methods are then evaluated and also applied to the example that motivated them. One interesting result is that the predicted probabilities can then be dynamically evaluated by using data from the current soccer competition.Peer Reviewe

On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league

We consider the problem of using the points a given team has in the First Division Spanish Soccer League to estimate its probabilities of achieving a specific objective, such as, for example, staying in the first division or playing the European Champions League. We started thinking about this specific problem and how to approach it after reading that some soccer coaches indicate that a team in the first division guarantees its staying in that division if it has a total of 42 points at the end of the regular season. This problem differs from the typical probability estimation problem because we only know the actual cumulative score a given team has at some point during the regular season. Under this setting a series of different assumptions can be made to predict the probability of interest at the end of the season. We describe the specific theoretical probability model using the multinomial distribution and, then, introduce two approximations to compute the probability of interest, as well as the exact method. The different proposed methods are then evaluated and also applied to the example that motivated them. One interesting result is that the predicted probabilities can then be dynamically evaluated by using data from the current soccer competition.Peer Reviewe