Changing how Earth System Modelling is done to provide more useful information for decision making, science and society

New details about natural and anthropogenic processes are continually added to models of the Earth system, anticipating that the increased realism will increase the accuracy of their predictions. However, perspectives differ about whether this approach will improve the value of the information the models provide to decision makers, scientists, and societies. The present bias toward increasing realism leads to a range of updated projections, but at the expense of uncertainty quantification and model tractability. This bias makes it difficult to quantify the uncertainty associated with the projections from any one model or to the distribution of projections from different models. This in turn limits the utility of climate model outputs for deriving useful information such as in the design of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies or identifying and prioritizing sources of uncertainty for reduction. Here we argue that a new approach to model development is needed, focused on the delivery of information to support specific policy decisions or science questions. The central tenet of this approach is the assessment and justification of the overall balance of model detail that reflects the question posed, current knowledge, available data, and sources of uncertainty. This differs from contemporary practices by explicitly seeking to quantify both the benefits and costs of details at a systemic level, taking into account the precision and accuracy with which predictions are made when compared to existing empirical evidence. We specify changes to contemporary model development practices that would help in achieving this goal.</jats:p

Initial recommendations for performing, benchmarking, and reporting single-cell proteomics experiments

Analyzing proteins from single cells by tandem mass spectrometry (MS) has become technically feasible. While such analysis has the potential to accurately quantify thousands of proteins across thousands of single cells, the accuracy and reproducibility of the results may be undermined by numerous factors affecting experimental design, sample preparation, data acquisition, and data analysis. Broadly accepted community guidelines and standardized metrics will enhance rigor, data quality, and alignment between laboratories. Here we propose best practices, quality controls, and data reporting recommendations to assist in the broad adoption of reliable quantitative workflows for single-cell proteomics.Comment: Supporting website: https://single-cell.net/guideline

Organic photovoltaic greenhouses: a unique application for semi-transparent PV?

Organic photovoltaics are an emerging solar power technology which embody properties such as transparency, flexibility, and rapid, roll to roll manufacture, opening the potential for unique niche applications. We report a detailed techno-economic analysis of one such application, namely the photovoltaic greenhouse, and discuss whether the unique properties of the technology can provide advantages over conventional photovoltaics. The potential for spectral selectivity through the choice of OPV materials is evaluated for the case of a photovoltaic greenhouse. The action spectrum of typical greenhouse crops is used to determine the impact on crop growth of blocking different spectral ranges from the crops. Transfer matrix optical modelling is used to assess the efficiency and spectrally resolved transparency of a variety of commercially available semi-conducting polymer materials, in addition to a non-commercial low-band-gap material with absorption outside that required for crop growth. Economic analysis suggests there could be a huge potential for OPV greenhouses if aggressive cost targets can be met. Technical analysis shows that semi-transparent OPV devices may struggle to perform better than opaque crystalline silicon with partial coverage, however, OPV devices using the low-band-gap material PMDPP3T, as well as a high efficiency mid-band-gap polymer PCDTBT, can demonstrate improved performance in comparison to opaque, flexible thin-film modules such as CIGS. These results stress the importance of developing new, highly transparent electrode and interlayer materials, along with high efficiency active layers, if the full potential of this application is going to be realise

Reducing the efficiency–stability–cost gap of organic photovoltaics with highly efficient and stable small molecule acceptor ternary solar cells

Technological deployment of organic photovoltaic modules requires improvements in device light-conversion efficiency and stability while keeping material costs low. Here we demonstrate highly efficient and stable solar cells using a ternary approach, wherein two non-fullerene acceptors are combined with both a scalable and affordable donor polymer, poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT), and a high-efficiency, low-bandgap polymer in a single-layer bulk-heterojunction device. The addition of a strongly absorbing small molecule acceptor into a P3HT-based non-fullerene blend increases the device efficiency up to 7.7 ± 0.1% without any solvent additives. The improvement is assigned to changes in microstructure that reduce charge recombination and increase the photovoltage, and to improved light harvesting across the visible region. The stability of P3HT-based devices in ambient conditions is also significantly improved relative to polymer:fullerene devices. Combined with a low-bandgap donor polymer (PBDTTT-EFT, also known as PCE10), the two mixed acceptors also lead to solar cells with 11.0 ± 0.4% efficiency and a high open-circuit voltage of 1.03 ± 0.01 V