Changes in hydrological extremes and climate variability in the Severn Uplands

Hydrological extremes within the UK have increased in intensity, frequency andpersistence over recent years and are predicted to increase in variability throughout the 21stcentury. Past and future changes in hydrological extremes relative to climate change wereinvestigated within Severn Uplands, a climate sensitive catchment. Using the Mann-Kendall trend detection test, time-series analysis over a 30-year period revealed asignificant increase in winter and autumn precipitation and a decrease in summerprecipitation. The analysis of flow time-series indicated an increase in winter and Julyflows and a decrease in spring flows. Changes in climate variability over the same periodshowed increases in air temperature and SST, and a reduction in snow cover. Climatevariables were found to largely correlate with hydrological extremes which werecharacteristic of certain weather types and largely influenced by the NAO.To model future flows within the Severn Uplands a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) wasused to simulate hydrological processes. The extreme hydrological event of November-December 2006 was used to calibrate the model. The difference between using radar andgauge precipitation data to drive the model was quantified. Radar data resulted in thesmallest prediction accuracy followed by gauge-corrected radar data (corrected using themean-field bias where gauge rainfall was interpolated using cokriging) and then gaugeprecipitation which had the largest prediction accuracy. Model accuracy was sufficientusing the gauge corrected radar and gauge precipitation data as inputs, so both were alteredfor future predictions to investigate the propagation of uncertainty. Predicted changes intemperature and precipitation by the UKCIP02 scenarios were used to alter the baselineextreme event to predict changes in peak flow and outflow volume. Both radar- and gaugedrivenhydrological modelling predicted large flow increases for the 21st century withincreases up to 8% by the 2020s, 18% by the 2050s and 30% by the 2080s. Discrepanciesbetween predictions were observed when using the different data inputs

Landscapes of connection

This poetic reflection piece provides key insights into current scholarly landscape research within the context of environmental geography, highlighting converging stories of connection

Managing multifunctional landscapes: local insights from a Pacific Island Country context

Across Pacific Island Countries, projects and policies are incorporating objectives related to managing landscape multifunctionality to sustain flows of multiple, valued ecosystem services. Strategies to manage natural resources are often not effective, or do not have intended outcomes, if they do not account for local contexts and the varied needs and constraints of stakeholders who rely upon natural resources for their livelihoods. Through fieldwork in Ba, Fiji, local insights were generated concerning the institutional, geographic, and socio-economic factors which determine and challenge i) different stakeholders’ ability to access landscape resources, and ii) stakeholders’ capacities to benefit from ecosystem services. The following insights were generated from this research which are important for guiding management of landscape multifunctionality. In Ba, hierarchical governance systems present barriers to effective management of landscape multifunctionality, and projects or policies with aims to manage landscapes should establish context appropriate multi-scale governance. Such governance systems should facilitate communication and interaction between different stakeholders, build upon community knowledge, and support communities as key actors in landscape management. Consideration of the spatial footprint of landscape resources, stakeholders’ different physical and financial capacities, and the institutional structures that mediate access to resources should be central to landscape management and planning. Various climatic stressors affect flows of ecosystem services from the Ba landscape and people’s capacity to access landscape resources; therefore, it is important that management of landscapes also builds resilience to climate stressor

An open - source mobile geospatial platform for promoting climate - smart livelihood - landscape systems in Fiji and Tonga

Communities in Fiji and Tonga rely on landscape services to support a variety of livelihoods. These communities are increasingly vulnerable to climate (e.g. increasing cyclone occurrence and intensity) and environmental (e.g. mining and deforestation) stressors. Within these landscape systems, accurate and timely monitoring of human-climate-environment interactions is important to inform landscape management, land use policies, and climate-smart sustainable development. Data collection and monitoring approaches exist to capture landscape-livelihood information such as surveys, participatory GIS (PGIS), and remote sensing. However, these monitoring approaches are challenged by data collection and management burdens, timely integration of databases and data streams, aligning system requirements with local needs, and socio-technical issues associated with low-resource development contexts. Such monitoring approaches only provide static representation of livelihood-landscape interactions failing to capture the dynamic nature of vulnerabilities, and benefit only a small user base. We present a prototype of a mobile, open-source geospatial tool being collaboratively developed with the Ministries of Agriculture in Fiji and Tonga and local stakeholders, to address the above shortcomings of PGIS and other environmental monitoring and data sharing approaches. The tool is being developed using open-source mobile GIS technologies following a formal ICT for Development (ICT4D) framework. We discuss the results for each component of the ICT4D framework which involves multiple landscape stakeholders across the two Small Island Developing States. Based on the ICT4D user requirements analysis, we produced a prototype open-source mobile geospatial data collection, analysis and sharing tool. New dynamic spatial data layers related to landscape use and climate were specifically developed for use in the tool. We present the functionality of the tool alongside the results of field-testing with stakeholders in Fiji and Tonga

Environmental Livelihood Security in Southeast Asia and Oceania: A Water-Energy-Food-Livelihoods Nexus Approach for Spatially Assessing Change

This document addresses the need for explicit inclusion of livelihoods within the environment nexus (water-energy-food security), not only responding to literature gaps but also addressing emerging dialogue from existing nexus consortia. We present the first conceptualization of ‘environmental livelihood security’, which combines the nexus perspective with sustainable livelihoods. The geographical focus of this paper is Southeast Asia and Oceania, a region currently wrought by the impacts of a changing climate. Climate change is the primary external forcing mechanism on the environmental livelihood security of communities in Southeast Asia and Oceania which, therefore, forms the applied crux of this paper. Finally, we provide a primer for using geospatial information to develop a spatial framework to enable geographical assessment of environmental livelihood security across the region. We conclude by linking the value of this research to ongoing sustainable development discussions, and for influencing policy agenda

Sustainable development and the water–energy–food nexus: A perspective on livelihoods

AbstractThe water–energy–food nexus is being promoted as a conceptual tool for achieving sustainable development. Frameworks for implementing nexus thinking, however, have failed to explicitly or adequately incorporate sustainable livelihoods perspectives. This is counterintuitive given that livelihoods are key to achieving sustainable development. In this paper we present a critical review of nexus approaches and identify potential linkages with sustainable livelihoods theory and practice, to deepen our understanding of the interrelated dynamics between human populations and the natural environment. Building upon this review, we explore the concept of ‘environmental livelihood security’ – which encompasses a balance between natural resource supply and human demand on the environment to promote sustainability – and develop an integrated nexus-livelihoods framework for examining the environmental livelihood security of a system. The outcome is an integrated framework with the capacity to measure and monitor environmental livelihood security of whole systems by accounting for the water, energy and food requisites for livelihoods at multiple spatial scales and institutional levels. We anticipate this holistic approach will not only provide a significant contribution to achieving national and regional sustainable development targets, but will also be effective for promoting equity amongst individuals and communities in local and global development agendas