The Identification and Estimation of Direct and Indirect Effects in A/B Tests through Causal Mediation Analysis

E-commerce companies have a number of online products, such as organic search, sponsored search, and recommendation modules, to fulfill customer needs. Although each of these products provides a unique opportunity for users to interact with a portion of the overall inventory, they are all similar channels for users and compete for limited time and monetary budgets of users. To optimize users' overall experiences on an E-commerce platform, instead of understanding and improving different products separately, it is important to gain insights into the evidence that a change in one product would induce users to change their behaviors in others, which may be due to the fact that these products are functionally similar. In this paper, we introduce causal mediation analysis as a formal statistical tool to reveal the underlying causal mechanisms. Existing literature provides little guidance on cases where multiple unmeasured causally-dependent mediators exist, which are common in A/B tests. We seek a novel approach to identify in those scenarios direct and indirect effects of the treatment. In the end, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in data from Etsy's real A/B tests and shed lights on complex relationships between different products.Comment: Accepted by The 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and DataMining (KDD '19), August 4-8, 2019, Anchorage, AK, US

Adiposity, Cardiometabolic Risk, and Vitamin D Status: The Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE: Because vitamin D deficiency is associated with a variety of chronic diseases, understanding the characteristics that promote vitamin D deficiency in otherwise healthy adults could have important clinical implications. Few studies relating vitamin D deficiency to obesity have included direct measures of adiposity. Furthermore, the degree to which vitamin D is associated with metabolic traits after adjusting for adiposity measures is unclear. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We investigated the relations of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations with indexes of cardiometabolic risk in 3,890 nondiabetic individuals; 1,882 had subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) volumes measured by multidetector computed tomography (CT). RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted regression models, 25(OH)D was inversely associated with winter season, waist circumference, and serum insulin (P < 0.005 for all). In models further adjusted for CT measures, 25(OH)D was inversely related to SAT (−1.1 ng/ml per SD increment in SAT, P = 0.016) and VAT (−2.3 ng/ml per SD, P < 0.0001). The association of 25(OH)D with insulin resistance measures became nonsignificant after adjustment for VAT. Higher adiposity volumes were correlated with lower 25(OH)D across different categories of BMI, including in lean individuals (BMI <25 kg/m2). The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency (25[OH]D <20 ng/ml) was threefold higher in those with high SAT and high VAT than in those with low SAT and low VAT (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D status is strongly associated with variation in subcutaneous and especially visceral adiposity. The mechanisms by which adiposity promotes vitamin D deficiency warrant further study.National Institutes of Health's National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (N01-HC-25195, R01-DK-80739): American Heart Associatio

Characterisation of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 strains isolated from humans in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand

Background: Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) is an important cause of bloody diarrhoea (BD), non-bloody diarrhoea (NBD) and the haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). In Argentina and New Zealand, the most prevalent STEC serotype is O157:H7, which is responsible for the majority of HUS cases. In Australia, on the other hand, STEC O157:H7 is associated with a minority of HUS cases. The main aims of this study were to compare the phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of STEC O157 strains isolated between 1993 and 1996 from humans in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand, and to establish their clonal relatedness. Results: Seventy-three O157 STEC strains, isolated from HUS (n = 36), BD (n = 20), NBD (n = 10), or unspecified conditions (n = 7) in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand, were analysed. The strains were confirmed to be E. coli O157 by biochemical tests and serotyping. A multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to amplify the stx1, stx2 and rfbO157 genes and a genotyping method based on PCR-RFLP was used to determine stx1 and stx2 variants. This analysis revealed that the most frequent stx genotypes were stx2/stx 2c (vh-a) (91%) in Argentina, stx2 (89%) in New Zealand, and stx1/stx2 (30%) in Australia. No stx 1-postive strains were identified in Argentina or New Zealand. All strains harboured the eae gene and 72 strains produced enterohaemolysin (EHEC-Hly). The clonal relatedness of strains was investigated by phage typing and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The most frequent phage types (PT) identified in Argentinian, Australian, and New Zealand strains were PT49 (n = 12), PT14 (n = 9), and PT2 (n = 15), respectively. Forty-six different patterns were obtained by XbaI-PFGE; 37 strains were grouped in 10 clusters and 36 strains showed unique patterns. Most clusters could be further subdivided by BlnI-PFGE. Conclusion: STEC O157 strains isolated in Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand differed from each other in terms of stx-genotype and phage type. Additionally, no common PFGE patterns were found in strains isolated in the three countries. International collaborative studies of the type reported here are needed to detect and monitor potentially hypervirulent STEC clones.Fil: Leotta, Gerardo Anibal. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud “Dr. C. G. Malbrán”; ArgentinaFil: Miliwebsky, Elizabeth S.. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud “Dr. C. G. Malbrán”; ArgentinaFil: Chinen, Isabel. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud “Dr. C. G. Malbrán”; ArgentinaFil: Espinosa, Estela M.. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud “Dr. C. G. Malbrán”; ArgentinaFil: Azzopardi, Kristy. University of Melbourne; AustraliaFil: Tennant, Sharon M.. University of Melbourne; AustraliaFil: Robins Browne, Roy M.. University of Melbourne; AustraliaFil: Rivas, Marta. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud “Dr. C. G. Malbrán”; Argentin

Biopolitical precarity in the permeable body: the social lives of people, viruses and their medicines

This article is based on multi-sited ethnography that traced a dynamic network of actors (activists, policy-makers, health care systems, pharmaceutical companies) and actants (viruses and medicines) that shaped South African women’s access to, and embodiment of, antiretroviral therapies (ARVs). Using actor network theory and post-humanist performativity as conceptual tools, the article explores how bodies become the meeting place for HIV and ARVs, or non-human actants. The findings centre around two linked sets of narratives that draw the focus out from the body to situate the body in relation to South Africa’s shifting biopolitical landscape. The first set of narratives articulate how people perceive the intra-action of HIV and ARVs in their sustained vitality. The second set of narratives articulate the complex embodiment of these actants as a form biopolitical precarity. These narratives flow into each other and do not represent a totalising view of the effects of HIV and ARVs in the lives of the people with whom I worked. The positive effects of ARVs (as unequivocally essential for sustaining life) were implicit and the precarious vitality of the people in this ethnography was fundamental. However, a related and emergent set of struggles become salient during the study that complicate a view of ARVs as a ‘technofix’. These emergent struggles were biopolitical, and they related first to the intra-action of HIV and ARVs ‘within’ the body; and second, to the ‘outside’ socio-economic context in which people’s bodies were situated

Characterisation of atypical enteropathogenic E. coli strains of clinical origin

BACKGROUND: Enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) is a prominent cause of diarrhoea, and is characterised in part by its carriage of a pathogenicity island: the locus for enterocyte effacement (LEE). EPEC is divided into two subtypes according to the presence of bundle-forming pili (BFP), a fimbrial adhesin that is a virulence determinant of typical EPEC (tEPEC), but is absent from atypical EPEC (aEPEC). Because aEPEC lack BFP, their virulence has been questioned, as they may represent LEE-positive Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) that have lost the toxin-encoding prophage, or tEPEC that have lost the genes for BFP. To determine if aEPEC isolated from humans in Australia or New Zealand fall into either of these categories, we undertook phylogenetic analysis of 75 aEPEC strains, and compared them with reference strains of EPEC and STEC. We also used PCR and DNA hybridisation to determine if aEPEC carry virulence determinants that could compensate for their lack of BFP. RESULTS: The results showed that aEPEC are highly heterogeneous. Multilocus sequence typing revealed that 61 of 75 aEPEC strains did not belong to known tEPEC or STEC clades, and of those that did, none expressed an O:H serotype that is frequent in tEPEC or STEC strains associated with disease. PCR for each of 18 known virulence-associated determinants of E. coli was positive in less than 15% of strains, apart from NleB which was detected in 30%. Type I fimbriae were expressed by all aEPEC strains, and 12 strains hybridised with DNA probes prepared from either bfpA or bfpB despite being negative in the PCR for bfpA. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that clinical isolates of aEPEC obtained from patients in Australia or New Zealand are not derived from tEPEC or STEC, and suggest that functional equivalents of BFP and possibly type I fimbriae may contribute to the virulence of some aEPEC strains

Investigating the global dispersal of chickens in prehistory using ancient mitochondrial dna signatures

Data from morphology, linguistics, history, and archaeology have all been used to trace the dispersal of chickens from Asian domestication centers to their current global distribution. Each provides a unique perspective which can aid in the reconstruction of prehistory. This study expands on previous investigations by adding a temporal component from ancient DNA and, in some cases, direct dating of bones of individual chickens from a variety of sites in Europe, the Pacific, and the Americas. The results from the ancient DNA analyses of forty-eight archaeologically derived chicken bones provide support for archaeological hypotheses about the prehistoric human transport of chickens. Haplogroup E mtDNA signatures have been amplified from directly dated samples originating in Europe at 1000 B.P. and in the Pacific at 3000 B.P. indicating multiple prehistoric dispersals from a single Asian centre. These two dispersal pathways converged in the Americas where chickens were introduced both by Polynesians and later by Europeans. The results of this study also highlight the inappropriate application of the small stretch of D-loop, traditionally amplified for use in phylogenetic studies, to understanding discrete episodes of chicken translocation in the past. The results of this study lead to the proposal of four hypotheses which will require further scrutiny and rigorous future testingExcavations in Fais by MI were made possible by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. DB gratefully acknowledges support from the Marsden Fund, and the Allan Wilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolution. During the course of this research AS was supported by a Postgraduate Scholarship from the University of Auckland and a Fellowship from the Allan Wilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolutio

DNA and pacific commensal models : applications, construction, limitations, and future prospects

ABSTRACT Components of the Pacific transported landscape have been used as proxies to trace the prehistoric movement of humans across th