Predicting with confidence the efficiency of new dyes in dye sensitized solar cells

We ask whether it is possible to predict the efficiency of a new dye in dye sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) on the basis of the known performance of existing dyes in the same type of device. We evaluate a number of computable predictors of the efficiency for a large set of dyes whose experimental efficiency is known. We have then used statistical regression methods to establish the relation between the predictors and the efficiency. Our predictions are associated with a rigorously determined confidence level. For a new dye of the same family we are able to predict the probability that its efficiency in a DSSC is larger than a certain threshold. This method is useful for accelerating the discovery of new dyes and establishing more rigorously the existence of specific correlations between structure and properties. Within the properties considered we find that the dye efficiency correlates more strongly with its oxidation potential and reorganization energy

Cluster analysis of multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification data in choroidal melanoma.

PurposeTo determine underlying correlations in multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) data and their significance regarding survival following treatment of choroidal melanoma (CM).MethodsMLPA data were available for 31 loci across four chromosomes (1p, 3, 6, and 8) in tumor material obtained from 602 patients with CM treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Center (LOOC) between 1993 and 2012. Data representing chromosomes 3 and 8q were analyzed in depth since their association with CM patient survival is well-known. Unsupervised k-means cluster analysis was performed to detect latent structure in the data set. Principal component analysis (PCA) was also performed to determine the intrinsic dimensionality of the data. Survival analyses of the identified clusters were performed using Kaplan-Meier (KM) and log-rank statistical tests. Correlation with largest basal tumor diameter (LTD) was investigated.ResultsChromosome 3: A two-cluster (bimodal) solution was found in chromosome 3, characterized by centroids at unilaterally normal probe values and unilateral deletion. There was a large, significant difference in the survival characteristics of the two clusters (log-rank, p<0.001; 5-year survival: 80% versus 40%). Both clusters had a broad distribution in LTD, although larger tumors were characteristically in the poorer outcome group (Mann-Whitney, p<0.001). Threshold values of 0.85 for deletion and 1.15 for gain optimized the classification of the clusters. PCA showed that the first principal component (PC1) contained more than 80% of the data set variance and all of the bimodality, with uniform coefficients (0.28±0.03). Chromosome 8q: No clusters were found in chromosome 8q. Using a conventional threshold-based definition of 8q gain, and in conjunction with the chromosome 3 clusters, three prognostic groups were identified: chromosomes 3 and 8q both normal, either chromosome 3 or 8q abnormal, and both chromosomes 3 and 8q abnormal. KM analysis showed 5-year survival figures of approximately 97%, 80%, and 30% for these prognostic groups, respectively (log-rank, p<0.001). All MLPA probes within both chromosomes were significantly correlated with each other (Spearman, p<0.001).ConclusionsWithin chromosome 3, the strong correlation between the MLPA variables and the uniform coefficients from the PCA indicates a lack of evidence for a signature gene that might account for the bimodality we observed. We hypothesize that the two clusters we found correspond to binary underlying states of complete monosomy or disomy 3 and that these states are sampled by the complete ensemble of probes. Consequently, we would expect a similar pattern to emerge in higher-resolution MLPA data sets. LTD may be a significant confounding factor. Considering chromosome 8q, we found that chromosome 3 cluster membership and 8q gain as traditionally defined have an indistinguishable impact on patient outcome

Small High-Risk Uveal Melanomas Have a Lower Mortality Rate

Our aim was to determine whether size impacts on the difference in metastatic mortality of genetically high-risk (monosomy 3) uveal melanomas (UM). We undertook a retrospective analysis of data from a patient cohort with genetically characterized UM. All patients treated for UM in the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre between 2007 and 2014, who had a prognostic genetic tumor analysis. Patients were subdivided into those with small (≤2.5 mm thickness) and large (>2.5 mm thickness) tumors. Survival analyses were performed using Gray rank statistics to calculate absolute probabilities of dying as a result of metastatic UM. The 5-year absolute risk of metastatic mortality of those with small monosomy 3 UM was significantly lower (23%) compared to the larger tumor group (50%) (p = 0.003). Small disomy 3 UM also had a lower absolute risk of metastatic mortality (0.8%) than large disomy 3 UM (6.4%) (p = 0.007). Hazard rates showed similar differences even with lead time bias correction estimates. We therefore conclude that earlier treatment of all small UM, particularly monosomy 3 UM, reduces the risk of metastatic disease and death. Our results would support molecular studies of even small UM, rather than ‘watch-and-wait strategies’

Multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: An OOG collaborative study

Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers

Low loss coatings for the VIRGO large mirrors

présentée par L. PinardThe goal of the VIRGO program is to build a giant Michelson type interferometer (3 kilometer long arms) to detect gravitational waves. Large optical components (350 mm in diameter), having extremely low loss at 1064 nm, are needed. Today, the Ion beam Sputtering is the only deposition technique able to produce optical components with such performances. Consequently, a large ion beam sputtering deposition system was built to coat large optics up to 700 mm in diameter. The performances of this coater are described in term of layer uniformity on large scale and optical losses (absorption and scattering characterization). The VIRGO interferometer needs six main mirrors. The first set was ready in June 2002 and its installation is in progress on the VIRGO site (Italy). The optical performances of this first set are discussed. The requirements at 1064 nm are all satisfied. Indeed, the absorption level is close to 1 ppm (part per million), the scattering is lower than 5 ppm and the R.M.S. wavefront of these optics is lower than 8 nm on 150 mm in diameter. Finally, some solutions are proposed to further improve these performances, especially the absorption level (lower than 0.1 ppm) and the mechanical quality factor Q of the mirrors (thermal noise reduction)

Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study

Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3's performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3's ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers

Individualised variable-interval risk-based screening for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy: the Liverpool Risk Calculation Engine

Aims/hypothesis Individualised variable-interval risk-based screening offers better targeting and improved cost-effectiveness in screening for diabetic retinopathy. We developed a generalisable risk calculation engine (RCE) to assign personalised intervals linked to local population characteristics, and explored differences in assignment compared with current practice. Methods Data from 5 years of photographic screening and primary care for people with diabetes, screen negative at the first of > 1 episode, were combined in a purpose-built near-real-time warehouse. Covariates were selected from a dataset created using mixed qualitative/quantitative methods. Markov modelling predicted progression to screen-positive (referable diabetic retinopathy) against the local cohort history. Retinopathy grade informed baseline risk and multiple imputation dealt with missing data. Acceptable intervals (6, 12, 24 months) and risk threshold (2.5%) were established with patients and professional end users. Results Data were from 11,806 people with diabetes (46,525 episodes, 388 screen-positive). Covariates with sufficient predictive value were: duration of known disease, HbA1c, age, systolic BP and total cholesterol. Corrected AUC (95% CIs) were: 6 months 0.88 (0.83, 0.93), 12 months 0.90 (0.87, 0.93) and 24 months 0.91 (0.87, 0.94). Sensitivities/specificities for a 2.5% risk were: 6 months 0.61, 0.93, 12 months 0.67, 0.90 and 24 months 0.82, 0.81. Implementing individualised RCE-based intervals would reduce the proportion of people becoming screen-positive before the allocated screening date by > 50% and the number of episodes by 30%. Conclusions/interpretation The Liverpool RCE shows sufficient performance for a local introduction into practice before wider implementation, subject to external validation. This approach offers potential enhancements of screening in improved local applicability, targeting and cost-effectiveness