Simpson's paradox and calculation of number needed to treat from meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Calculation of numbers needed to treat (NNT) is more complex from meta-analysis than from single trials. Treating the data as if it all came from one trial may lead to misleading results when the trial arms are imbalanced. DISCUSSION: An example is shown from a published Cochrane review in which the benefit of nursing intervention for smoking cessation is shown by formal meta-analysis of the individual trial results. However if these patients were added together as if they all came from one trial the direction of the effect appears to be reversed (due to Simpson's paradox). Whilst NNT from meta-analysis can be calculated from pooled Risk Differences, this is unlikely to be a stable method unless the event rates in the control groups are very similar. Since in practice event rates vary considerably, the use a relative measure, such as Odds Ratio or Relative Risk is advocated. These can be applied to different levels of baseline risk to generate a risk specific NNT for the treatment. SUMMARY: The method used to calculate NNT from meta-analysis should be clearly stated, and adding the patients from separate trials as if they all came from one trial should be avoided

Tumour invasiveness, the local and systemic environment and the basis of staging systems in colorectal cancer

background: The present study aimed to examine the relationship between tumour invasiveness (T stage), the local and systemic environment and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with primary operable colorectal cancer. methods: The tumour microenvironment was examined using measures of the inflammatory infiltrate (Klintrup-Makinen (KM) grade and Immunoscore), tumour stroma percentage (TSP) and tumour budding. The systemic inflammatory environment was examined using modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (NLR). A 5-year CSS was examined. results: A total of 331 patients were included. Increasing T stage was associated with colonic primary, N stage, poor differentiation, margin involvement and venous invasion (P<0.05). T stage was significantly associated with KM grade (P=0.001), Immunoscore (P=0.016), TSP (P=0.006), tumour budding (P<0.001), and elevated mGPS and NLR (both P<0.05). In patients with T3 cancer, N stage stratified survival from 88 to 64%, whereas Immunoscore and budding stratified survival from 100 to 70% and from 91 to 56%, respectively. The Glasgow Microenvironment Score, a score based on KM grade and TSP, stratified survival from 93 to 58%. conclusions: Although associated with increasing T stage, local and systemic tumour environment characteristics, and in particular Immunoscore, budding, TSP and mGPS, are stage-independent determinants of survival and may be utilised in the staging of patients with primary operable colorectal cancer

Lévy patterns in seabirds are multifaceted describing both spatial and temporal patterning

BACKGROUND: The flight patterns of albatrosses and shearwaters have become a touchstone for much of Lévy flight research, spawning an extensive field of enquiry. There is now compelling evidence that the flight patterns of these seabirds would have been appreciated by Paul Lévy, the mathematician after whom Lévy flights are named. Here we show that Lévy patterns (here taken to mean spatial or temporal patterns characterized by distributions with power-law tails) are, in fact, multifaceted in shearwaters being evident in both spatial and temporal patterns of activity. RESULTS: We tested for Lévy patterns in the at-sea behaviours of two species of shearwater breeding in the North Atlantic Ocean (Calonectris borealis) and the Mediterranean sea (C. diomedea) during their incubating and chick-provisioning periods. We found that distributions of flight durations, on/in water durations and inter-dive time-intervals have power-law tails and so bear the hallmarks of Lévy patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of these statistical laws is remarkable given that bird behaviours are strongly shaped by an individual’s motivational state and by complex environmental interactions. Our observations could take Lévy patterns as models of animal behaviour to a new level by going beyond the characterisation of spatial movements to characterise how different behaviours are interwoven throughout daily animal life

The effectiveness of interventions to change six health behaviours: a review of reviews

Background: Several World Health Organisation reports over recent years have highlighted the high incidence of chronic diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer. Contributory factors include unhealthy diets, alcohol and tobacco use and sedentary lifestyles. This paper reports the findings of a review of reviews of behavioural change interventions to reduce unhealthy behaviours or promote healthy behaviours. We included six different health-related behaviours in the review: healthy eating, physical exercise, smoking, alcohol misuse, sexual risk taking (in young people) and illicit drug use. We excluded reviews which focussed on pharmacological treatments or those which required intensive treatments (e. g. for drug or alcohol dependency). Methods: The Cochrane Library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and several Ovid databases were searched for systematic reviews of interventions for the six behaviours (updated search 2008). Two reviewers applied the inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the quality of the reviews. The results were discussed in a narrative synthesis. Results: We included 103 reviews published between 1995 and 2008. The focus of interventions varied, but those targeting specific individuals were generally designed to change an existing behaviour (e. g. cigarette smoking, alcohol misuse), whilst those aimed at the general population or groups such as school children were designed to promote positive behaviours (e. g. healthy eating). Almost 50% (n = 48) of the reviews focussed on smoking (either prevention or cessation). Interventions that were most effective across a range of health behaviours included physician advice or individual counselling, and workplace- and school-based activities. Mass media campaigns and legislative interventions also showed small to moderate effects in changing health behaviours. Generally, the evidence related to short-term effects rather than sustained/longer-term impact and there was a relative lack of evidence on how best to address inequalities. Conclusions: Despite limitations of the review of reviews approach, it is encouraging that there are interventions that are effective in achieving behavioural change. Further emphasis in both primary studies and secondary analysis (e.g. systematic reviews) should be placed on assessing the differential effectiveness of interventions across different population subgroups to ensure that health inequalities are addressed.</p

Prevalence of Trachoma in Unity State, South Sudan: Results from a Large-Scale Population-Based Survey and Potential Implications for Further Surveys

Large parts of South Sudan are thought to be trachoma endemic but baseline data, required to initiate interventions, are few. District-by-district surveys, currently recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), are often not financially or logistically viable. We therefore adapted existing WHO guidelines and combined eight counties (equivalent to districts) of Unity State into one survey area, randomly sampling 40 villages using a population-based survey design. This decision was based on a trachoma risk map and a trachoma rapid assessment, both identifying the state as likely to be highly endemic. The survey confirmed trachoma as being hyperendemic throughout Unity State, meaning that large-scale intervention should be initiated now. Simulation studies were conducted to determine the likely outcome if fewer (n = 20) or more (n = 60) villages had been sampled, confirming that precision decreased or increased, respectively. Importantly, simulation results also showed that all three sample sizes would have led to the same conclusion, namely the need for large-scale intervention. This finding suggests that district-by-district surveys may not be required for areas where trachoma is suspected to be highly prevalent but that are lacking baseline data; instead districts may be combined into a larger survey area

Riverbed sediments buffer phosphorus concentrations downstream of sewage treatment works across the River Wensum catchment, UK

Purpose: Wastewater effluent discharged into rivers from sewage treatment works (STWs) represents one of the most important point sources of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) pollution and is a major driver of freshwater eutrophication. In this study, we assess the ability of riverbed sediments to act as a self-regulating buffering system to reduce SRP dissolved in the water column downstream of STW outflows. Materials and methods: River water and riverbed sediment samples were collected from 10 tributary outlets across the River Wensum catchment, Norfolk, UK, at monthly intervals between July and October 2016, such that 40 sediment and 40 water samples were collected in total. Of these locations, five were located downstream of STWs and five were on tributaries without STWs. Dissolved SRP concentrations were analysed and the Equilibrium Phosphorus Concentration (EPC0) of each sediment sample was measured to determine whether riverbed sediments were acting as net sources or sinks of SRP. Results and discussion: The mean SRP concentration downstream of STWs (382 µg P L-1) was double that of sites without a STW (185 µg P L-1), whilst the mean EPC0 for effluent impacted sites (105 µg P L-1) was 70% higher than that recorded at unaffected sites (62 µg P L-1). Regardless of STW influence, riverbed sediments across all 10 sites almost always acted as net sinks for SRP from the overlying water column. This was particularly true at sites downstream of STWs which displayed enhanced potential to buffer the river against increases in SRP released in sewage effluent. Conclusions: Despite EPC0 values revealing riverbed sediments were consistently acting as sinks for SRP, elevated SRP concentrations downstream of STWs clearly demonstrate the sediments have insufficient SRP sorption capacity to completely buffer the river against effluent discharge. Consequently, SRP concentrations across the catchment continue to exceed recommended standards for good chemical status, thus emphasising the need for enhanced mitigation efforts at STWs to minimise riverine phosphorus loading

HSPVdb—the Human Short Peptide Variation Database for improved mass spectrometry-based detection of polymorphic HLA-ligands

T cell epitopes derived from polymorphic proteins or from proteins encoded by alternative reading frames (ARFs) play an important role in (tumor) immunology. Identification of these peptides is successfully performed with mass spectrometry. In a mass spectrometry-based approach, the recorded tandem mass spectra are matched against hypothetical spectra generated from known protein sequence databases. Commonly used protein databases contain a minimal level of redundancy, and thus, are not suitable data sources for searching polymorphic T cell epitopes, either in normal or ARFs. At the same time, however, these databases contain much non-polymorphic sequence information, thereby complicating the matching of recorded and theoretical spectra, and increasing the potential for finding false positives. Therefore, we created a database with peptides from ARFs and peptide variation arising from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). It is based on the human mRNA sequences from the well-annotated reference sequence (RefSeq) database and associated variation information derived from the Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Database (dbSNP). In this process, we removed all non-polymorphic information. Investigation of the frequency of SNPs in the dbSNP revealed that many SNPs are non-polymorphic “SNPs”. Therefore, we removed those from our dedicated database, and this resulted in a comprehensive high quality database, which we coined the Human Short Peptide Variation Database (HSPVdb). The value of our HSPVdb is shown by identification of the majority of published polymorphic SNP- and/or ARF-derived epitopes from a mass spectrometry-based proteomics workflow, and by a large variety of polymorphic peptides identified as potential T cell epitopes in the HLA-ligandome presented by the Epstein–Barr virus cells

Acute and Persistent Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infections Depend on the Thiol Peroxidase TPX

The macrophage is the natural niche of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. In order to combat oxidative and nitrosative stresses and persist in macrophages successfully, M. tuberculosis is endowed with a very efficient antioxidant complex. Amongst these antioxidant enzymes, TpX is the only one in M. tuberculosis with sequence homology to thiol peroxidase. Previous reports have demonstrated that the M. tuberculosis TpX protein functions as a peroxidase in vitro. It is the dominant antioxidant which protects M. tuberculosis against oxidative and nitrosative stresses. The level of the protein increases in oxidative stress. To determine the roles of tpx gene in M. tuberculosis survival and virulence in vivo, we constructed an M. tuberculosis strain lacking the gene. The characteristics of the mutant were examined in an in vitro stationary phase model, in response to stresses; in murine bone marrow derived macrophages and in an acute and an immune resistant model of murine tuberculosis. The tpx mutant became sensitive to H2O2 and NO compared to the wild type strain. Enzymatic analysis using bacterial extracts from the WT and the tpx mutant demonstrated that the mutant contains reduced peroxidase activity. As a result of this, the mutant failed to grow and survive in macrophages. The growth deficiency in macrophages became more pronounced after interferon-γ activation. In contrast, its growth was significantly restored in the macrophages of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS or NOS2) knockout mice. Moreover, the tpx mutant was impaired in its ability to initiate an acute infection and to maintain a persistent infection. Its virulence was attenuated. Our results demonstrated that tpx is required for M. tuberculosis to deal with oxidative and nitrosative stresses, to survive in macrophages and to establish acute and persistent infections in animal tuberculosis models

Relationship between maternal obesity and infant feeding-interactions

BACKGROUND: There are no data regarding the relationship between maternal adiposity and interaction and feeding of infants and possible contribution to childhood obesity. In this study we determined the relationship between maternal body weight and composition and infant feeding patterns and maternal-infant interaction during 24-hour metabolic rate measurements in the Enhanced Metabolic Testing Activity Chamber (EMTAC). METHODS: The amount of time four obese (BMI = 33.5 ± 5.3 kg/m(2)) and three normal weight (BMI = 23.1 ± 0.6 kg/m(2)) biological mothers, spent feeding and interacting with their infants, along with what they ingested, was recorded during 24-hour metabolic rate measurements in the EMTAC. The seven infants were 4.9 ± 0.7 months, 69 ± 3 cm, 7.5 ± 0.8 kg, 26 ± 3 % fat and 29 ± 25 percentile for weight for length. Energy and macronutrient intake (kcal/kg) were assessed. Maternal body composition was determined by air displacement plethysmorgraphy and that of the infants by skin-fold thicknesses. Pearson correlations and independent t-tests were utilized for statistical analysis (p < 0.05). RESULTS: Infants born to obese biological mothers consumed more energy (87.6 ± 18.9 vs. 68.1 ± 17.3) and energy as carbohydrate (25 ± 6 vs.16 ± 3; p < 0.05) than their normal weight counterparts. Most of the increased intake was due to complementary feedings. Twenty-four hour infant energy intake increased with both greater maternal body weight (r = 0.73;p < 0.06) and percent body fat. Furthermore, obese biological mothers spent less total time interacting (570 ± 13 vs. 381 ± 30 minutes) and feeding (298 ± 32 vs.176 ± 22 minutes) (p < 0.05) their infants than their normal weight counterparts. Twenty-four hour interaction time negatively correlated with both maternal body weight (r = -0.98; p < 0.01) and percent body fat (r = -0.92; p < 0.01). Moreover, infants of obese mothers slept more (783 ± 38 vs. 682 ± 32 minutes; p < 0.05) than their normal weight counterparts. However, there were no differences in total 24-hour energy expenditure, resting and sleeping metabolic rates (kcal/kg) for infants born to obese and normal weight biological mothers. CONCLUSION: Greater maternal body weight and percent body fat were associated with greater infant energy intakes. These infants were fed less frequently and consumed more carbohydrates in a shorter period of time as compared to infants from normal weight biological mothers. These variations in feeding patterns may predispose certain infants to obesity