Sex differences in temperature-related all-cause mortality in the Netherlands

Purpose: Over the last few decades, a global increase in both cold and heat extremes has been observed with significant impacts on human mortality. Although it is well-identified that older individuals (> 65 years) are most prone to temperature-related mortality, there is no consensus on the effect of sex. The current study investigated if sex differences in temperature-related mortality exist in the Netherlands. Methods: Twenty-three-year ambient temperature data of the Netherlands were combined with daily mortality data which were subdivided into sex and three age classes (< 65 years, 65–80 years, ≥ 80 years). Distributed lag non-linear models were used to analyze the effect of ambient temperature on mortality and determine sex differences in mortality attributable to the cold and heat, which is defined as mean daily temperatures below and above the Minimum Mortality Temperature, respectively. Results: Attributable fractions in the heat were higher in females, especially in the oldest group under extreme heat (≥ 97.5th percentile), whilst no sex differences were found in the cold. Cold- and heat-related mortality was most prominent in the oldest age group (≥ 80 years) and to a smaller extent in the age group between 65–80 years. In the age group < 65 years temperature-related mortality was only significant for males in the heat. Conclusion: Mortality in the Netherlands represents the typical V- or hockey-stick shaped curve with a higher daily mortality in the cold and heat than at milder temperatures in both males and females, especially in the age group ≥ 80 years. Heat-related mortality was higher in females than in males, especially in the oldest age group (≥ 80 years) under extreme heat, whilst in the cold no sex differences were found. The underlying cause may be of physiological or behavioral nature, but more research is necessary

A dual-track transition to global carbon pricing: the glass is half full

We appreciate the response by Erik Haites (2020) to our paper (van den Bergh et al., 2020a), not only because it is well-informed and contains many subtle remarks, but also because our article was aimed at stimulating debate on how to achieve effective climate policies that limit global warming change to 1.5-2°C. There is no question that the latter represents a tremendous challenge for the global community, and our dual-track proposal is intended to provide a workable approach to it by addressing the free-riding problem through policy harmonization. Although we feel that Haites raises many relevant points regarding the difficulties of carrying out the proposal, most of these were, in fact, already addressed by our paper (...

An assessment of best practices of extreme weather insurance and directions for a more resilient society

Extreme weather resilience has been defined as being based on three pillars: resistance (the ability to lower impacts), recovery (the ability to bounce back), and adaptive capacity (the ability to learn and improve). These resilience pillars are important both before and after the occurrence of extreme weather events. Extreme weather insurance can influence these pillars of resilience depending on how particular insurance mechanisms are structured. We explore how the lessons learnt from the current best insurance practices can improve resilience to extreme weather events. We employ an extensive inventory of private property and agricultural crop insurance mechanisms to conduct a multi-criteria analysis of insurance market outcomes. We draw conclusions regarding the patterns in the best practice from six European countries to increase resilience. We suggest that requirements to buy a bundle extreme weather event insurance with general insurance packages are strengthened and supported with structures to financing losses through public-private partnerships. Moreover, support for low income households through income vouchers could be provided. Similarly, for the agricultural sector we propose moving towards comprehensive crop yield insurance linked to general agricultural subsidies. In both cases a nationally representative body can coordinate the various stakeholders into acting in concert

The local economic impacts of natural disasters: A view from outer space

In this dissertation, I study the local economic impacts of natural disasters. I use night light emissions captured by satellites as a proxy for local economic activity to bring the analysis of economic impacts of natural extremes to a finer spatial scale. In doing so, this thesis bridges a gap between the international economic literature on natural disasters and their economic impacts, and the more case study oriented or geographically confined studies on natural extremes in the fields of natural hazards and remote sensing. Using a variety of approaches and methods, I discuss how light emissions can help us understand how natural extremes affect the economies they impact. I illustrate the method with a case study of Hurricane Katrina, for which I show how the effects of the destruction of this event can be observed from space. Combined with a growing literature that makes use of night light data to proxy economic development, these findings suggest that night light data can provide a way forward for studying local economic dynamics in response to natural hazards. Moreover, night light data serve as an independently and objectively measured proxy for economic statistics that are not available at the local level in most parts of the world, hence opening up research possibilities in areas for which no data is available otherwise. In the second main chapter of this thesis, I expand this approach and turn to a global analysis in which I show worldwide adverse local impacts of natural hazards and signs of relocation of economic activity across space. I do so for a global panel of 0.5° grid cells, spanning roughly 55 by 55 kilometers at the equator. I show that these dynamics take place within countries, further strengthening the case for studying disaster impacts at this spatial scale, and opening avenues for research into spatial spillover effects between regions within countries. In the second half of this thesis, I discuss a -- at the time of writing -- relatively new suite of satellite data, with which I produce results that place findings in the literature in a different perspective. In a global panel of earthquakes between 2012 and 2016, I find no consistent relationship between changes in night light intensity and the occurrence of heavy earthquakes. This finding holds at the spatial level of the analysis of weather extremes in Chapter 2, and at the resolution of night light data – roughly 500 by 500 meters at the equator. To dive deeper, in my final chapter I conduct a detailed comparative case study on a major earthquake in Japan. Findings of this chapter indicate that night light intensity does not consistently reflect adverse impacts, even in municipalities for which adverse economic impacts and widespread destruction were recorded. Concluding, light emissions do not always reflect adverse impacts from earthquakes. Researchers should therefore be cautious when contributing to this rapidly growing literature. The work in this thesis contributes to this ongoing debate and suggests ways forward

Perceptions of Catastrophic Climate Risks

Many climate change-related risks, such as more frequent and severe natural disasters, can be characterised as low-probability/high-consequence (LP/ HC) events. Perceptions of LP/HC risks are often associated with biases which hamper taking action to limit these risks, such as underestimation of risk, myopia, and the adoption of simplifed decision heuristics. This chapter discusses these biases and outlines key elements of policies to overcome them in order to enhance climate action

Drivers and dimensions of flood risk perceptions: Revealing an implicit selection bias and lessons for communication policies

Flood damages have increased in many regions around the world, and they are expected to continue to rise in the future due to climate change. To reverse this trend, awareness of flood risk among the population is required to support flood risk management policies and improve flood preparedness. However, empirical studies on the drivers of flood risk perceptions conducted thus far have reported mixed and contradictory results. The aim of this study is to provide insights into the factors that influence perceptions of various dimensions of flood risk to draw lessons to guide flood risk communication strategies. We test a variety of hypotheses of possible factors of influence on flood risk perceptions that are motivated by theoretical concepts and previous empirical studies, whilst also controlling for socio-demographic variables. A representative sample of 2,976 residents answered our survey assessing the role that past flood experiences and risk communication play in shaping flood risk perceptions. Besides exploring flood risk perceptions more robustly, this large sample also facilitates the systematic study of ‘don't know’ answers, which are often dismissed as missing data in many studies. Rather in this study we analyze what ‘don't know’ answers reflect in terms of knowledge about particular dimensions of flood risk. The study finds that older people, as well as those who have higher levels of income and education, are significantly more likely to express their flood risk perceptions, respondents who are unable to answer the questions on flood risk perceptions face a lower flood risk, report to have been living in their neighbourhood for a shorter period of time and have less first-hand flood experience. Previous studies might thus be biased by an implicit selection effect. Finally, we show that findings are highly dependent on other explicit choices made by researchers, including the apparently self-fulfilling impact of selecting one explanatory framework over another. New insights emerge from the role that information campaigns and social vulnerability play in the ability to answer the questions. Based on our findings, we offer recommendations for improving flood risk communication policies, specifically increasing the frequency of communication, ensuring that campaigns are focused in terms of the content they provide and the subgroups of the population they target

Economic impacts and risks of climate change under failure and success of the Paris Agreement

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent the world's first effort toward the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature increase well below 2 °C and pursuing 1.5 °C. Little is known about how much the proposed mitigation efforts can reduce the risks and economic damages from unabated climate change and about the consequences if key emitters drop the Paris Agreement. Here, we use CLIMRISK, an integrated assessment model designed to support climate policy at the global, national, and subnational scales where mitigation and adaptation policy decisions are made. We characterize the consequences of unabated climate change and the benefits of current climate policy proposals by means of probabilistic estimates of the economic damages of climate change and uni- and multivariate dynamic climate risk indices at a detailed spatial resolution. The results presented reveal that the economic costs and risks are highly unequally distributed between and within countries and larger than previously estimated when warming in urban areas and temporal persistence of impacts are accounted for. Costs and risks can be significantly limited by strict implementation of NDCs, but increase noticeably under noncompliance by large emitters, like the United States

After the virtual flood: Risk perceptions and flood preparedness after virtual reality risk communication

Many individuals experience problems understanding and preparing for low-probability/high-impact risk, like natural disasters and pandemics – unless they experience these events, yet then it is often too late to avoid damages. Individuals with recent disaster risk experience are, on average, better prepared. This seems to be mediated through emotions and a better understanding of the consequences. In this study, we use immersive virtual reality (VR) technology to examine whether a simulated disaster can stimulate people to invest in risk reducing measures in the context of flooding, which is one of the deadliest and most damaging natural disasters in the world. We investigate the possibility to boost risk perception, coping appraisal, negative emotions and damage-reducing behavior through a simulated flooding experience. We find that participants who experienced the virtual flood invest significantly more in the flood risk investment game than those in the control group. The investments in the VR treatment seem to decrease after four weeks but not significantly so

Flood insurance demand and probability weighting: The influences of regret, worry, locus of control and the threshold of concern heuristic

Low-lying densely populated areas can be susceptible to flooding due to extreme river discharges. Insurance may be used to spread flood risk and reduce potential material damages. However, homeowners often purchase insufficient amounts of insurance against natural hazard risks like flooding, which may be due to the way they process probabilities. A common finding from (Cumulative) Prospect Theory is that individuals over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities in making decisions under risk. However, very low probabilities typical of flood risks are either significantly over-weighted or neglected altogether. This study aims to examine factors related to flood insurance demand regarding emotions specific to risk, like immediate and anticipated emotions, the threshold level of concern as well as personality traits, like locus of control. In addition, we compare results under real experiment incentives to hypothetical ones with high loss outcomes. Based on data collected from 1041 homeowners in the Netherlands, we find that: an internal locus of control and anticipated regret about potentially uninsured flood losses is related to higher flood insurance demand. The use of the threshold of concern model is related to more probability under-weighting/less probability over-weighting when probabilities of flooding are low. Several policies are suggested to overcome psychological factors related to low demand for flood insurance to improve future flood preparations