Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring

Interactions between long and synoptic-scale waves in a simple model

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 1987.Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science.Bibliography: leaves 197-204.by Wesley Nobuo Ebisuzaki.Ph.D

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized

Introduction to the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and overview of the reanalysis systems

The climate research community uses atmospheric reanalysis data sets to understand a wide range of processes and variability in the atmosphere, yet different reanalyses may give very different results for the same diagnostics. The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is a coordinated activity to compare reanalysis data sets using a variety of key diagnostics. The objectives of this project are to identify differences among reanalyses and understand their underlying causes, to provide guidance on appropriate usage of various reanalysis products in scientific studies, particularly those of relevance to SPARC, and to contribute to future improvements in the reanalysis products by establishing collaborative links between reanalysis centres and data users. The project focuses predominantly on differences among reanalyses, although studies that include operational analyses and studies comparing reanalyses with observations are also included when appropriate. The emphasis is on diagnostics of the upper troposphere, stratosphere, and lower mesosphere. This paper summarizes the motivation and goals of the S-RIP activity and extensively reviews key technical aspects of the reanalysis data sets that are the focus of this activity. The special issue The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) in this journal serves to collect research with relevance to the S-RIP in preparation for the publication of the planned two (interim and full) S-RIP reports

The impact of high-resolution SALLJEX data on NCEP global analyses

A data assimilation study was performed to access the impact of observations on analyses in the region east of the Andes Mountains from western Brazil to central Argentina. The data assimilation systems, CDAS-1, CDAS-2 and GDAS, were run with and without the additional SALLJEX rawinsondes and pilot balloon observations. The experiments for each data assimilation system revealed similar features, with a stronger low-level flow east of the Andes when SALLJEX data were included. GDAS had the strongest LLJ when compared with observations. In the experiments only including rawinsonde data, the LLJ was displaced westward in comparison to the analyses run without SALLJEX data. The vertical structure of the meridional wind in the analysis was much closer to observed rawinsonde profiles in the experiments including SALLJEX data than in the control experiments. This was especially true in the GDAS case. There is a strong relation between precipitation estimates (cmorph) and moisture flux convergence during the period of the SALLJEX, with precipitation maxima coinciding with maxima in moisture flux convergence. The results of this study can serve as a benchmark for similar data imapact studies using higher resolution data assimilation systems.Pages: 1105-111

Lower Stratospheric Temperature Differences Between Meteorological Analyses in two cold Arctic Winters and their Impact on Polar Processing Studies

A quantitative intercomparison of six meteorological analyses is presented for the cold 1999-2000 and 1995-1996 Arctic winters. The impacts of using different analyzed temperatures in calculations of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation potential, and of different winds in idealized trajectory-based temperature histories, are substantial. The area with temperatures below a PSC formation threshold commonly varies by approximately 25% among the analyses, with differences of over 50% at some times/locations. Freie University at Berlin analyses are often colder than others at T is less than or approximately 205 K. Biases between analyses vary from year to year; in January 2000. U.K. Met Office analyses were coldest and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses warmest. while NCEP analyses were usually coldest in 1995-1996 and Met Office or NCEP[National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (REAN) warmest. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) temperatures agreed better with other analyses in 1999-2000, after improvements in the assimilation model. than in 1995-1996. Case-studies of temperature histories show substantial differences using Met Office, NCEP, REAN and NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) analyses. In January 2000 (when a large cold region was centered in the polar vortex), qualitatively similar results were obtained for all analyses. However, in February 2000 (a much warmer period) and in January and February 1996 (comparably cold to January 2000 but with large cold regions near the polar vortex edge), distributions of "potential PSC lifetimes" and total time spent below a PSC formation threshold varied significantly among the analyses. Largest peaks in "PSC lifetime" distributions in January 2000 were at 4-6 and 11-14 days. while in the 1996 periods, they were at 1-3 days. Thus different meteorological conditions in comparably cold winters had a large impact on expectations for PSC formation and on the discrepancies between different meteorological analyses. Met Office. NCEP, REAN, ECMWF and DAO analyses are commonly used for trajectory calculations and in chemical transport models; the choice of which analysis to use can strongly influence the results of such studies