The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

Survival benefits of statins for primary prevention: a cohort study

Objectives: Estimate the effect of statin prescription on mortality in the population of England and Wales with no previous history of cardiovascular disease.  Methods: Primary care records from The Health Improvement Network 1987-2011 were used.Four cohorts of participants aged 60, 65, 70, or 75 years at baseline included 118,700,199,574, 247,149, and 194,085 participants; and 1.4, 1.9, 1.8, and 1.1 million person-years of data, respectively. The exposure was any statin prescription at any time before the participant reached the baseline age (60, 65, 70 or 75) and the outcome was all-cause mortality at any age above the baseline age. The hazard of mortality associated with statin prescription was calculated by Cox's proportional hazard regressions, adjusted for sex, year of birth, socioeconomic status, diabetes,antihypertensive medication, hypercholesterolaemia, body mass index, smoking status, and general practice. Participants were grouped by QRISK2 baseline risk of afirst cardiovascular event in the next ten years of <10%, 10-19%, or ≥20%.  Results: There was no reduction in all-cause mortality for statin prescription initiated in participants with a QRISK2 score <10% at any baseline age, or in participants aged 60at baseline in any risk group. Mortality was lower in participants with a QRISK2 score≥20% if statin prescription had been initiated by age 65 (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)0.86 (0.79-0.94)), 70 (HR 0.83 (0.79-0.88)), or 75 (HR 0.82 (0.79-0.86)). Mortality reduction was uncertain with a QRISK2 score of 10-19%: the HR was 1.00 (0.91-1.11)for statin prescription by age 65, 0.89 (0.81-0.99) by age 70, or 0.79 (0.52-1.19) by age75.  Conclusions: The current internationally recommended thresholds for statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in routine practice may be too low and may lead to overtreatment of younger people and those at low risk

ICD-10 coding algorithms for defining comorbidities of acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: With the introduction of ICD-10 throughout Canada, it is important to ensure that Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) comorbidities employed in risk adjustment methods remain valid and robust. Therefore, we developed ICD-10 coding algorithms for nine AMI comorbidities, examined the validity of the ICD-10 and ICD-9 coding algorithms in detection of these comorbidities, and assessed their performance in predicting mortality. The nine comorbidities that we examined were shock, diabetes with complications, congestive heart failure, cancer, cerebrovascular disease, pulmonary edema, acute renal failure, chronic renal failure, and cardiac dysrhythmias. METHODS: Coders generated a comprehensive list of ICD-10 codes corresponding to each AMI comorbidity. Physicians independently reviewed and determined the clinical relevance of each item on the list. To ensure that the newly developed ICD-10 coding algorithms were valid in recording comorbidities, medical charts were reviewed. After assessing ICD-10 algorithms' validity, both ICD-10 and ICD-9 algorithms were applied to a Canadian provincial hospital discharge database to predict in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Compared to chart review data as a 'criterion standard', ICD-9 and ICD-10 data had similar sensitivities (ranging from 7.1 – 100%), and specificities (above 93.6%) for each of the nine AMI comorbidities studied. The frequencies for the comorbidities were similar between ICD-9 and ICD-10 coding algorithms for 49,861 AMI patients in a Canadian province during 1994 – 2004. The C-statistics for predicting 30-day and 1 year mortality were the same for ICD-9 (0.82) and for ICD-10 data (0.81). CONCLUSION: The ICD-10 coding algorithms developed in this study to define AMI comorbidities performed similarly as past ICD-9 coding algorithms in detecting conditions and risk-adjustment in our sample. However, the ICD-10 coding algorithms should be further validated in external databases

Circumstellar disks and planets. Science cases for next-generation optical/infrared long-baseline interferometers

We present a review of the interplay between the evolution of circumstellar disks and the formation of planets, both from the perspective of theoretical models and dedicated observations. Based on this, we identify and discuss fundamental questions concerning the formation and evolution of circumstellar disks and planets which can be addressed in the near future with optical and infrared long-baseline interferometers. Furthermore, the importance of complementary observations with long-baseline (sub)millimeter interferometers and high-sensitivity infrared observatories is outlined.Comment: 83 pages; Accepted for publication in "Astronomy and Astrophysics Review"; The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Does administration of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug determine morphological changes in adrenal cortex: ultrastructural studies

Rofecoxib (Vioxx© made by Merck Sharp & Dohme, the USA) is a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug which belongs to the group of selective inhibitors of cyclooxygenasis-2, i.e., coxibs. Rofecoxib was first registered in the USA, in May 1999. Since then the drug was received by millions of patients. Drugs of this group were expected to exhibit increased therapeutic action. Additionally, there were expectations concerning possibilities of their application, at least as auxiliary drugs, in neoplastic therpy due to intensifying of apoptosis. In connection with the withdrawal of Vioxx© (rofecoxib) from pharmaceutical market, attempts were made to conduct electron-microscopic evaluation of cortical part of the adrenal gland in preparations obtained from animals under influence of the drug. Every morning animals from the experimental group (15 rats) received rofecoxib (suspension in physiological saline)—non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (Vioxx©, Merck Sharp and Dohme, the USA), through an intragastric tube in the dose of 1.25 mg during 8 weeks. In the evaluated material, there was found a greater number of secretory vacuoles and large, containing cholesterol and other lipids as well as generated glucocorticoids, lipid drops in cytoplasm containing prominent endoplasmic reticulum. There were also found cells with cytoplasm of smaller density—especially in apical and basal parts of cells. Mitochondria occasionally demonstrated features of delicate swelling. The observed changes, which occurred on cellular level with application of large doses of the drug, result from mobilization of adaptation mechanisms of the organism

A comparative analysis of predictive models of morbidity in intensive care unit after cardiac surgery – Part I: model planning

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Different methods have recently been proposed for predicting morbidity in intensive care units (ICU). The aim of the present study was to critically review a number of approaches for developing models capable of estimating the probability of morbidity in ICU after heart surgery. The study is divided into two parts. In this first part, popular models used to estimate the probability of class membership are grouped into distinct categories according to their underlying mathematical principles. Modelling techniques and intrinsic strengths and weaknesses of each model are analysed and discussed from a theoretical point of view, in consideration of clinical applications.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Models based on Bayes rule, <it>k-</it>nearest neighbour algorithm, logistic regression, scoring systems and artificial neural networks are investigated. Key issues for model design are described. The mathematical treatment of some aspects of model structure is also included for readers interested in developing models, though a full understanding of mathematical relationships is not necessary if the reader is only interested in perceiving the practical meaning of model assumptions, weaknesses and strengths from a user point of view.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Scoring systems are very attractive due to their simplicity of use, although this may undermine their predictive capacity. Logistic regression models are trustworthy tools, although they suffer from the principal limitations of most regression procedures. Bayesian models seem to be a good compromise between complexity and predictive performance, but model recalibration is generally necessary. <it>k</it>-nearest neighbour may be a valid non parametric technique, though computational cost and the need for large data storage are major weaknesses of this approach. Artificial neural networks have intrinsic advantages with respect to common statistical models, though the training process may be problematical.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Knowledge of model assumptions and the theoretical strengths and weaknesses of different approaches are fundamental for designing models for estimating the probability of morbidity after heart surgery. However, a rational choice also requires evaluation and comparison of actual performances of locally-developed competitive models in the clinical scenario to obtain satisfactory agreement between local needs and model response. In the second part of this study the above predictive models will therefore be tested on real data acquired in a specialized ICU.</p

Left ventricular shape variation in asymptomatic populations: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND: Although left ventricular cardiac geometric indices such as size and sphericity characterize adverse remodeling and have prognostic value in symptomatic patients, little is known of shape distributions in subclinical populations. We sought to quantify shape variation across a large number of asymptomatic volunteers, and examine differences among sub-cohorts. METHODS: An atlas was constructed comprising 1,991 cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) cases contributed from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis baseline examination. A mathematical model describing regional wall motion and shape was used to establish a coordinate map registered to the cardiac anatomy. The model was automatically customized to left ventricular contours and anatomical landmarks, corrected for breath-hold mis-registration between image slices. Mathematical techniques were used to characterize global shape distributions, after removal of translations, rotations, and scale due to height. Differences were quantified among ethnicity, sex, smoking, hypertension and diabetes sub-cohorts. RESULTS: The atlas construction process yielded accurate representations of global shape (errors between manual and automatic surface points in 244 validation cases were less than the image pixel size). After correction for height, the dominant shape component was associated with heart size, explaining 32% of the total shape variance at end-diastole and 29% at end-systole. After size, the second dominant shape component was sphericity at end-diastole (13%), and concentricity at end-systole (10%). The resulting shape components distinguished differences due to ethnicity and risk factors with greater statistical power than traditional mass and volume indices. CONCLUSIONS: We have quantified the dominant components of global shape variation in the adult asymptomatic population. The data and results are available at cardiacatlas.org. Shape distributions were principally explained by size, sphericity and concentricity, which are known correlates of adverse outcomes. Atlas-based global shape analysis provides a powerful method for quantifying left ventricular shape differences in asymptomatic populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0000548

The Life and Times of Giant Molecular Clouds

Giant molecular clouds (GMCs) are the sites of star formation and stellar feedback in galaxies. Their properties set the initial conditions for star formation and their lifecycles determine how feedback regulates galaxy evolution. In recent years, the advent of high-resolution telescopes has enabled systematic GMC-scale studies of the molecular interstellar medium in nearby galaxies, now covering a wide range of physical conditions and allowing for the first studies of how GMC properties depend on galactic environment. These observational developments have been accompanied by numerical simulations of improving resolution that are increasingly accurately accounting for the effects of the galactic-scale environment on GMCs, while simultaneously improving the treatment of the small-scale processes of star-formation and stellar feedback within them. The combination of these recent developments has greatly improved our understanding of the formation, evolution, and destruction of GMCs. We review the current state of the field, highlight current open questions, and discuss promising avenues for future studies