Value of systolic pulmonary arterial pressure as a prognostic factor of death in the systemic sclerosis EUSTAR population.

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) estimated by echocardiography in the multinational European League Against Rheumatism Scleroderma Trial and Research (EUSTAR) cohort.Data for patients with echocardiography documented between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2011 were extracted from the EUSTAR database. Stepwise forward multivariable statistical Cox pulmonary hypertension analysis was used to examine the independent effect on survival of selected variables.Based on our selection criteria, 1476 patients were included in the analysis; 87\% of patients were female, with a mean age of 56.3 years (s.d. 13.5) and 31\% had diffuse SSc. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.0 years (s.d. 1.2, median 1.9). Taking index sPAP of 50 mmHg. In a multivariable Cox model, sPAP and the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) were independently associated with the risk of death [HR 1.833 (95\% CI 1.035, 3.247) and HR 0.973 (95\% CI 0.955, 0.991), respectively]. sPAP was an independent risk factor for death with a HR of 3.02 (95\% CI 1.91, 4.78) for sPAP ≥36 mmHg.An estimated sPAP >36 mmHg at baseline echocardiography was significantly and independently associated with reduced survival, regardless of the presence of pulmonary hypertension based on right heart catheterization

Prediction of improvement in skin fibrosis in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: a EUSTAR analysis

OBJECTIVES Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. METHODS We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of >5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. RESULTS From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. CONCLUSIONS Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care

Smoking in Systemic Sclerosis: a Longitudinal European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group Study

Data on the role of tobacco exposure in systemic sclerosis (SSc) severity and progression are scarce. We aimed to assess the effects of smoking on the evolution of pulmonary and skin manifestations in the EUSTAR database

Progressive skin fibrosis is associated with a decline in lung function and worse survival in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort

OBJECTIVES To determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). METHODS We evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7, valid mRSS at 12±3 months after baseline and ≥1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS >5 and ≥25% from baseline to 12±3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS Of 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline ≥10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p<0.001) and all-cause death (15.4% vs 7.3%; p=0.003) than non-progressors. These significant associations were also found in subgroup analyses of patients with either low baseline mRSS (≤22/51) or short disease duration (≤15 months). In multivariable analyses, skin progression within 1 year was independently associated with FVC decline ≥10% (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.65) and all-cause death (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.09). CONCLUSIONS Progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year is associated with decline in lung function and worse survival in dcSSc during follow-up. These results confirm mRSS as a surrogate marker in dcSSc, which will be helpful for cohort enrichment in future trials and risk stratification in clinical practice

Predictors of disease worsening defined by progression of organ damage in diffuse systemic sclerosis: a European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) analysis

Objectives Mortality and worsening of organ function are desirable endpoints for clinical trials in systemic sclerosis (SSc). The aim of this study was to identify factors that allow enrichment of patients with these endpoints, in a population of patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research group database. Methods Inclusion criteria were diagnosis of diffuse SSc and follow-up over 12±3 months. Disease worsening/organ progression was fulfilled if any of the following events occurred: new renal crisis; decrease of lung or heart function; new echocardiography-suspected pulmonary hypertension or death. In total, 42 clinical parameters were chosen as predictors for the analysis by using (1) imputation of missing data on the basis of multivariate imputation and (2) least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Results Of 1451 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 706 had complete data on outcome parameters and were included in the analysis. Of the 42 outcome predictors, eight remained in the final regression model. There was substantial evidence for a strong association between disease progression and age, active digital ulcer (DU), lung fibrosis, muscle weakness and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Active DU, CRP elevation, lung fibrosis and muscle weakness were also associated with a significantly shorter time to disease progression. A bootstrap validation step with 10 000 repetitions successfully validated the model. Conclusions The use of the predictive factors presented here could enable cohort enrichment with patients at risk for overall disease worsening in SSc clinical trials

Classification, categorization and essential items for digital ulcer evaluation in systemic sclerosis: a DeSScipher/European Scleroderma Trials and Research group (EUSTAR) survey

Background A consensus on digital ulcer (DU) definition in systemic sclerosis (SSc) has been recently reached (Suliman et al., J Scleroderma Relat Disord 2:115-20, 2017), while for their evaluation, classification and categorisation, it is still missing. The aims of this study were to identify a set of essential items for digital ulcer (DU) evaluation, to assess if the existing DU classification was useful and feasible in clinical practice and to investigate if the new categorisation was preferred to the simple distinction of DU in recurrent and not recurrent, in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods DeSScipher is the largest European multicentre study on SSc. It consists of five observational trials (OTs), and one of them, OT1, is focused on DU management. The DeSScipher OT1 items on DU that reached ≥ 60% of completion rate were administered to EUSTAR (European Scleroderma Trials and Research group) centres via online survey. Questions about feasibility and usefulness of the existing DU classification (DU due to digital pitting scars, to loss of tissue, derived from calcinosis and gangrene) and newly proposed categorisation (episodic, recurrent and chronic) were also asked. Results A total of 84/148 (56.8%) EUSTAR centres completed the questionnaire. DeSScipher items scored by ≥ 70% of the participants as essential and feasible for DU evaluation were the number of DU defined as a loss of tissue (level of agreement 92%), recurrent DU (84%) and number of new DU (74%). For 65% of the centres, the proposed classification of DU was considered useful and feasible in clinical practice. Moreover, 80% of the centres preferred the categorisation of DU in episodic, recurrent and chronic to simple distinction in recurrent/not recurrent DU. Conclusions For clinical practice, EUSTAR centres identified only three essential items for DU evaluation and considered the proposed classification and categorisation as useful and feasible. The set of items needs to be validated while further implementation of DU classification and categorisation is warranted. Trial registration Observational trial on DU (OT1) is one of the five trials of the DeSScipher project (ClinicalTrials.gov; OT1 Identifier: NCT01836263, posted on April 19, 2013)

Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis

To determine the causes of death and risk factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc

Impact of synthetic and biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs on antibody responses to the AS03-adjuvanted pandemic influenza vaccine: a prospective, open-label, parallel-cohort, single-center study

To identify the determinants of antibody responses to adjuvanted split influenza A (H1N1) vaccines in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases

A comparison between nailfold capillaroscopy patterns in adulthood in juvenile and adult-onset systemic sclerosis: A EUSTAR exploratory study.

Objective: Qualitative capillaroscopy patterns in juvenile- and adult-onset systemic sclerosis (SSc) were studied in adulthood using data from the EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Methods: Data collected between June 2004 and April 2013 were examined with focus on capillaroscopy. In this retrospective exploratory study, series of patients with juvenile-onset SSc were matched with series of adult-onset SSc having the same gender and autoantibody profile. Results: 30 of 123 patientswith juvenile-onset and 2108 of 7133with adult-onset SSc had data on capillaroscopy. Juvenile-onset SSc showed scleroderma pattern more frequently than adult-onset SSc (93.3% and 88%). The OR was 2.44 and 95% CI 0.57\u201310.41. An active scleroderma pattern was present in 58% of juvenile- and 61% of adult-onset SSc. The OR was 0.91 and 95% CI 0.28\u20132.93. The late scleroderma pattern was present in 61% of juvenile- and 55.5% of adult-onset SSc. The OR was 1.06 and 95% CI 0.34\u20133.56. Conclusion: This is the first exploratory study on the comparison of capillaroscopy between juvenile- and adult-onset SSc in adulthood. Juvenile-onset SSc had an increase prevalence of scleroderma pattern, but a similar distribution of the three patterns was suggested. Further studies are needed to define this issue