Microtopographic drivers of vegetation patterning in blanket peatlands recovering from erosion

Blanket peatlands are globally rare, and many have been severely eroded. Natural recovery and revegetation (‘self-restoration’) of bare peat surfaces are often observed but are poorly understood, thus hampering the ability to reliably predict how these ecosystems may respond to climatic change. We hypothesised that morphometric/topographic-related microclimatic variables may be key controls on successional pathways and vegetation patterning in self-restoring blanket peatlands. We predicted the occurrence probability of four common peatland plant species (Calluna vulgaris, Eriophorum vaginatum, Eriophorum angustifolium, and Sphagnum spp.) using a digital surface model (DSM) generated from drone imagery at a pixel size of 20 cm, a suite of variables derived from the DSM, and an ensemble learning method (random forests). All four species models provided accurate fine-scale predictions of habitat suitability (accuracy > 90%, area under curve (AUC) > 0.9, recall and precision > 0.8). Mean elevation (within a 1 m radius) was often the most influential variable. Topographic position, wind exposure, and the heterogeneity or ruggedness of the surrounding surface were also important for all models, whilst light-related variables and a wetness index were important in the Sphagnum model. Our approach can be used to improve prediction of future responses and sensitivities of peatland recovery to climatic changes and as a tool to identify areas of blanket peatlands that may self-restore successfully without management intervention

The Sphagnome Project: enabling ecological and evolutionary insights through a genus-level sequencing project

Considerable progress has been made in ecological and evolutionary genetics with studies demonstrating how genes underlying plant and microbial traits can influence adaptation and even 'extend' to influence community structure and ecosystem level processes. Progress in this area is limited to model systems with deep genetic and genomic resources that often have negligible ecological impact or interest. Thus, important linkages between genetic adaptations and their consequences at organismal and ecological scales are often lacking. Here we introduce the Sphagnome Project, which incorporates genomics into a long-running history of Sphagnum research that has documented unparalleled contributions to peatland ecology, carbon sequestration, biogeochemistry, microbiome research, niche construction, and ecosystem engineering. The Sphagnome Project encompasses a genus-level sequencing effort that represents a new type of model system driven not only by genetic tractability, but by ecologically relevant questions and hypotheses

Infilled Ditches are Hotspots of Landscape Methane Flux Following Peatland Re-wetting

Peatlands are large terrestrial stores of carbon, and sustained CO2 sinks, but over the last century large areas have been drained for agriculture and forestry, potentially converting them into net carbon sources. More recently, some peatlands have been re-wetted by blocking drainage ditches, with the aims of enhancing biodiversity, mitigating flooding, and promoting carbon storage. One potential detrimental consequence of peatland re-wetting is an increase in methane (CH4) emissions, offsetting the benefits of increased CO2 sequestration. We examined differences in CH4 emissions between an area of ditch-drained blanket bog, and an adjacent area where drainage ditches were recently infilled. Results showed that Eriophorum vaginatum colonization led to a “hotspot” of CH4 emissions from the infilled ditches themselves, with smaller increases in CH4 from other re-wetted areas. Extrapolated to the area of blanket bog surrounding the study site, we estimated that CH4 emissions were around 60 kg CH4 ha−1 y−1 prior to drainage, reducing to 44 kg CH4 ha−1 y−1 after drainage. We calculated that fully re-wetting this area would initially increase emissions to a peak of around 120 kg CH4 ha−1 y−1, with around two-thirds of the increase (and 90% of the increase over pre-drainage conditions) attributable to CH4 emissions from E. vaginatum-colonized infilled ditches, despite these areas only occupying 7% of the landscape. We predicted that emissions should eventually decline toward pre-drainage values as the ecosystem recovers, but only if Sphagnum mosses displace E. vaginatum from the infilled ditches. These results have implications for peatland management for climate change mitigation, suggesting that restoration methods should aim, if possible, to avoid the colonization of infilled ditches by aerenchymatous species such as E. vaginatum, and to encourage Sphagnum establishment

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO2) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH4 emissions within earth system land models

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of wetland methane fluxes measured by eddy covariance require gap-filling to estimate daily, seasonal, and annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for wetland methane fluxes, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. This study synthesizes results of different gap-filling methods systematically applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions and including all major wetland classes and two rice paddies. Procedures are proposed for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with realistic uncertainty estimates. Performance is compared between a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms. The conventional method achieved similar median performance as the machine learning models but was worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on wetland soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. The python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation is publicly available. This study outlines a modular and robust machine learning workflow and makes recommendations for, and evaluates an improved baseline of, methane gap-filling models that can be implemented in multi-site syntheses or standardized products from regional and global flux networks (e.g., FLUXNET)