Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background: Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging.\ud \ud Methodology/principal findings: We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced.\ud \ud Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making

Size constancy in bat biosonar?

Perception and encoding of object size is an important feature of sensory systems. In the visual system object size is encoded by the visual angle (visual aperture) on the retina, but the aperture depends on the distance of the object. As object distance is not unambiguously encoded in the visual system, higher computational mechanisms are needed. This phenomenon is termed "size constancy". It is assumed to reflect an automatic re-scaling of visual aperture with perceived object distance. Recently, it was found that in echolocating bats, the 'sonar aperture', i.e., the range of angles from which sound is reflected from an object back to the bat, is unambiguously perceived and neurally encoded. Moreover, it is well known that object distance is accurately perceived and explicitly encoded in bat sonar. Here, we addressed size constancy in bat biosonar, recruiting virtual-object techniques. Bats of the species Phyllostomus discolor learned to discriminate two simple virtual objects that only differed in sonar aperture. Upon successful discrimination, test trials were randomly interspersed using virtual objects that differed in both aperture and distance. It was tested whether the bats spontaneously assigned absolute width information to these objects by combining distance and aperture. The results showed that while the isolated perceptual cues encoding object width, aperture, and distance were all perceptually well resolved by the bats, the animals did not assign absolute width information to the test objects. This lack of sonar size constancy may result from the bats relying on different modalities to extract size information at different distances. Alternatively, it is conceivable that familiarity with a behaviorally relevant, conspicuous object is required for sonar size constancy, as it has been argued for visual size constancy. Based on the current data, it appears that size constancy is not necessarily an essential feature of sonar perception in bats

Alcohol-induced retrograde facilitation renders witnesses of crime less suggestible to misinformation

RATIONALE: Research has shown that alcohol can have both detrimental and facilitating effects on memory: intoxication can lead to poor memory for information encoded after alcohol consumption (anterograde amnesia) and may improve memory for information encoded before consumption (retrograde facilitation). This study examined whether alcohol consumed after witnessing a crime can render individuals less vulnerable to misleading post-event information (misinformation). METHOD: Participants watched a simulated crime video. Thereafter, one third of participants expected and received alcohol (alcohol group), one third did not expect but received alcohol (reverse placebo), and one third did not expect nor receive alcohol (control). After alcohol consumption, participants were exposed to misinformation embedded in a written narrative about the crime. The following day, participants completed a cued-recall questionnaire about the event. RESULTS: Control participants were more likely to report misinformation compared to the alcohol and reverse placebo group. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that we may oversimplify the effect alcohol has on suggestibility and that sometimes alcohol can have beneficial effects on eyewitness memory by protecting against misleading post-event information

Increased development of radiographic hip osteoarthritis in individuals with high bone mass: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with high bone mass (HBM) have a greater odds of prevalent radiographic hip osteoarthritis (OA), reflecting an association with bone-forming OA sub-phenotypes (e.g. osteophytosis, subchondral sclerosis). As the role of bone mineral density (BMD) in hip OA progression is unclear, we aimed to determine if individuals with HBM have increased incidence and/or progression of bone-forming OA sub-phenotypes. METHODS: We analysed an adult cohort with and without HBM (L1 and/or total hip BMD Z-score > + 3.2) with pelvic radiographs collected at baseline and 8-year follow-up. Sub-phenotypes were graded using the OARSI atlas. Superior/inferior acetabular/femoral osteophyte and medial/superior joint space narrowing (JSN) grades were summed and Δosteophyte and ΔJSN derived. Pain and functional limitations were quantified using the WOMAC questionnaire. Associations between HBM status and change in OA sub-phenotypes were determined using multivariable linear/logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, height, total body fat mass, follow-up time and baseline sub-phenotype grade. Generalised estimating equations accounted for individual-level clustering. RESULTS: Of 136 individuals, 62% had HBM at baseline, 72% were female and mean (SD) age was 59 (10) years. HBM was positively associated with both Δosteophytes and ΔJSN (adjusted mean grade differences between individuals with and without HBM βosteophyte = 0.30 [0.01, 0.58], p = 0.019 and βJSN = 0.10 [0.01, 0.18], p = 0.019). Incident subchondral sclerosis was rare. HBM individuals had higher WOMAC hip functional limitation scores (β = 8.3 [0.7, 15.98], p = 0.032). CONCLUSIONS: HBM is associated with the worsening of hip osteophytes and JSN over an average of 8 years, as well as increased hip pain and functional limitation

Risk of death in the long QT syndrome when a sibling has died

BACKGROUND: Sudden death of a sibling is thought to be associated with greater risk of death in long QT syndrome (LQTS). However, there is no evidence of such an association. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to test the hypothesis that sudden death of a sibling is a risk factor for death or aborted cardiac arrest (ACA) in patients with LQTS. METHODS: We examined all probands and first-degree and second-degree relatives in the International Long QT Registry from birth to age 40 years with QTc >/= 0.45 s. Covariates included sibling death, QTc, gender by age, syncope, and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) and beta-blocker treatment. End points were (1) severe events (ACA, LQTS-related death) and (2) any cardiac event (syncope, ACA, or LQTS-related death). RESULTS: Of 1915 subjects, 270 had a sibling who died. There were 213 severe events and 829 total cardiac events. More subjects with history of sibling death received beta-blocker therapy. Sibling death was not significantly associated with risk of ACA or LQTS-related death, but was associated with increased risk of syncope. QTc >/= 0.53 s (hazard ratio 2.5, P <.01), history of syncope (hazard ratio 6.1, P <.01), and gender were strongly associated with risk of ACA or LQTS-related death. CONCLUSION: Sudden death of a sibling prompted more aggressive treatment but did not predict risk of death or ACA, whereas QTc >/= 0.53 s, gender, and syncope predicted this risk. All subjects should receive appropriate beta-blocker therapy. The decision to implant an ICD should be based on an individual's own risk characteristics (QTc, gender, and history of syncope)

An Agenda for Best Practice Research on Group Singing, Health, and Well-Being

Research on choirs and other forms of group singing has been conducted for several decades and there has been a recent focus on the potential health and well-being benefits, particularly in amateur singers. Experimental, quantitative, and qualitative studies show evidence of a range of biopsychosocial and well-being benefits to singers; however, there are many challenges to rigor and replicability. To support the advances of research into group singing, the authors met and discussed theoretical and methodological issues to be addressed in future studies. The authors are from five countries and represent the following disciplinary perspectives: music psychology, music therapy, community music, clinical psychology, educational and developmental psychology, evolutionary psychology, health psychology, social psychology, and public health. This article summarizes our collective thoughts in relation to the priority questions for future group singing research, theoretical frameworks, potential solutions for design and ethical challenges, quantitative measures, qualitative methods, and whether there is scope for a benchmarking set of measures across singing projects. With eight key recommendations, the article sets an agenda for best practice research on group singing

Should mechanical dyssynchrony be assessed in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators?

Cardiac Dysfunction and Arrhythmia

Searches for Gravitational Waves from Binary Neutron Stars: A Review

A new generation of observatories is looking for gravitational waves. These waves, emitted by highly relativistic systems, will open a new window for ob- servation of the cosmos when they are detected. Among the most promising sources of gravitational waves for these observatories are compact binaries in the final min- utes before coalescence. In this article, we review in brief interferometric searches for gravitational waves emitted by neutron star binaries, including the theory, instru- mentation and methods. No detections have been made to date. However, the best direct observational limits on coalescence rates have been set, and instrumentation and analysis methods continue to be refined toward the ultimate goal of defining the new field of gravitational wave astronomy.Comment: 30 pages, 5 Figures, to appear in "Short-Period Binary Stars: Observations, Analyses, and Results", Ed.s Eugene F. Milone, Denis A. Leahy, David W. Hobil