Transmission Heterogeneity and Control Strategies for Infectious Disease Emergence

The control of emergence and spread of infectious diseases depends critically on the details of the genetic makeup of pathogens and hosts, their immunological, behavioral and ecological traits, and the pattern of temporal and spatial contacts among the age/stage-classes of susceptible and infectious host individuals.We show that failing to acknowledge the existence of heterogeneities in the transmission rate among age/stage-classes can make traditional eradication and control strategies ineffective, and in some cases, policies aimed at controlling pathogen emergence can even increase disease incidence in the host. When control strategies target for reduction in numbers those subsets of the population that effectively limit the production of new susceptible individuals, then control can produce a flush of new susceptibles entering the population. The availability of a new cohort of susceptibles may actually increase disease incidence. We illustrate these general points using Classical Swine Fever as a reference disease.Negative effects of culling are robust to alternative formulations of epidemiological processes and underline the importance of better assessing transmission structure in the design of wildlife disease control strategies

Modeling the Control of Trypanosomiasis Using Trypanocides or Insecticide-Treated Livestock

In Uganda, cattle are an important reservoir for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, the causative agent of Rhodesian sleeping sickness (human African trypanosomiasis), transmitted by tsetse flies Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, which feed on cattle, humans, and wild vertebrates, particularly monitor lizards. Trypanosomiasis can be controlled by treating livestock with trypanocides or insecticide – killing parasites or vectors, respectively. Mathematical modeling of trypanosomiasis was used to compare the impact of drug- and insecticide-based interventions on R0 with varying densities of cattle, humans and wild hosts. Intervention impact changes with the number of cattle treated and the proportion of bloodmeals tsetse take from cattle. R0 was always reduced more by treating cattle with insecticide rather than trypanocides. In the absence of wild hosts, the model suggests that control of sleeping sickness (R0<1) could be achieved by treating ∼65% of cattle with trypanocides or ∼20% with insecticide. Required coverage increases as wild mammals provide increasing proportion of tsetse bloodmeals: if 60% of non-human bloodmeals are from wild hosts then all cattle have to be treated with insecticide. Conversely, it is reduced if lizards, which do not harbor trypanosomes, are important hosts and/or if insecticides are used at a scale where tsetse numbers decline

Polymorphisms of the prion protein gene and their effects on litter size and risk evaluation for scrapie in Chinese Hu sheep

It is well known that scrapie is a fatal, neurodegenerative disease in sheep and goat, which belongs to the group of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) or prion diseases. It has been confirmed that the polymorphisms of prion protein gene (PRNP) at codons 136, 154, and 171 have strong relationship with scrapie in sheep. In the present study, nine polymorphisms of PRNP at codons 136, 154, and 171 and other six loci (at codons 101, 112, 127, 137, 138, and 152) were detected in 180 Chinese Hu sheep. All the alleles at codons 136, 154, and 171 have been identified and resulted in three new genotypes. The frequencies of predominant alleles were 85% (A136), 99.40% (R154), and 37.78% (Q171), respectively. The predominant haplotype ARQ has a relatively high frequency of 57.77%. The frequencies of dominant genotypes of ARR/ARQ and ARQ/ARQ were 30 and 26.67%, respectively. Three new found genotypes named ARQ/TRK, ARQ/TRR, and TRR/TRQ had the same lower frequencies (0.56%). The relationship of PRNP genotype with scrapie risk and litter size showed that the predominant genotypes are corresponded to the risk score of R1 (1.67%), R2 (32.22%), and R3 (42.22%). Just at the first parity, the individuals with ARH/ARH genotype had significantly larger litter size than the mean value and those with ARQ/ARQ and ARR/ARQ genotypes. In short, this study provided preliminary information about alleles and genotypes of PRNP in Chinese Hu sheep. It could be concluded that Hu sheep has a low susceptibility to natural scrapie, and the predominant PRNP genotype at least has no significant effect on litter size

Hyponatremia in visceral leishmaniasis

There are few reports linking hyponatremia and visceral leishmaniasis (kala-azar). This is a study of 55 consecutive kala-azar patients and 20 normal individuals as a control group. Hyponatremia and serum hypo-osmolality were detected in 100% of kala-azar patients. High first morning urine osmolality (750.0 ± 52.0 vs. 894.5 ± 30.0mOsm/kg H2O, p Existem poucos relatos relacionando hiponatremia com a leshmaniose visceral (calazar). Este é um estudo de 55 pacientes portadores de calazar e um grupo controle de 20 indivíduos normais. Hiponatremia e hipo-osmolalidade sérica foram detectados em 100% dos pacientes portadores de calazar. A presença de alta osmolalidade da primeira urina da manhã (750,0 ± 52,0 vs. 894,5 ± 30 mOsm/Kg H2O, p < 0,05) e da urina de 24h (426,0 ± 167,0 vs. 514,6 ± 132,0 mOsm/Kg H2O, p < 0,05), demonstraram a presença de persistente secreção de hormônio antidiurético. A concentração de sódio urinário foi elevada (82,3 ± 44,2 vs. 110,3 ± 34,7 mEq/L, p < 0,05). Hipouricemia ocorreu em 61,8% dos pacientes e aumento da fração de excreção urinária de ácido úrico foi detectada em 74,5% dos casos. Aumento da velocidade de filtração glomerular estava presente em 25,4% dos pacientes. Não havia evidência clínica de depleção de volume extracelular. Valores normais de ADH plasmático foram observados nos pacientes com calazar. Não foi detectada disfunção renal ou endócrina. É provável, que a maioria dos pacientes com calazar apresente uma síndrome de secreção inapropriada de hormônio antidiurético

Mechanisms of Endothelial Dysfunction in Resistance Arteries from Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease

The study focuses on the mechanisms of endothelial dysfunction in the uremic milieu. Subcutaneous resistance arteries from 35 end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients and 28 matched controls were studied ex-vivo. Basal and receptor-dependent effects of endothelium-derived factors, expression of endothelial NO synthase (eNOS), prerequisites for myoendothelial gap junctions (MEGJ), and associations between endothelium-dependent responses and plasma levels of endothelial dysfunction markers were assessed. The contribution of endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor (EDHF) to endothelium-dependent relaxation was impaired in uremic arteries after stimulation with bradykinin, but not acetylcholine, reflecting the agonist-specific differences. Diminished vasodilator influences of the endothelium on basal tone and enhanced plasma levels of asymmetrical dimethyl L-arginine (ADMA) suggest impairment in NO-mediated regulation of uremic arteries. eNOS expression and contribution of MEGJs to EDHF type responses were unaltered. Plasma levels of ADMA were negatively associated with endothelium-dependent responses in uremic arteries. Preserved responses of smooth muscle to pinacidil and NO-donor indicate alterations within the endothelium and tolerance of vasodilator mechanisms to the uremic retention products at the level of smooth muscle. We conclude that both EDHF and NO pathways that control resistance artery tone are impaired in the uremic milieu. For the first time, we validate the alterations in EDHF type responses linked to kinin receptors in ESRD patients. The association between plasma ADMA concentrations and endothelial function in uremic resistance vasculature may have diagnostic and future therapeutic implications

Discrimination against HIV-Infected People and the Spread of HIV: Some Evidence from France

BACKGROUND: Many people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) suffer from stigma and discrimination. There is an ongoing debate, however, about whether stigma, fear and discrimination actually fuel the persisting spread of HIV, or slow it down by reducing contacts between the whole population and high-risk minorities. To contribute to this debate, we analysed the relationship between perceived discrimination and unsafe sex in a large sample of French PLWHAs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 2003, we conducted a national cross-sectional survey among a random sample of HIV-infected patients. The analysis was restricted to sexually active respondents (N = 2,136). Unsafe sex was defined as sexual intercourse without a condom with a seronegative/unknown serostatus partner during the prior 12 months. Separate analyses were performed for each transmission group (injecting drug use (IDU), homosexual contact, heterosexual contact). Overall, 24% of respondents reported experiences of discrimination in their close social environment (relatives, friends and colleagues) and 18% reported unsafe sex during the previous 12 months. Both prevalences were higher in the IDU group (32% for perceived discrimination, 23% for unsafe sex). In multivariate analyses, experience of discrimination in the close social environment was associated with an increase in unsafe sex for both PLWHAs infected through IDU and heterosexual contact (OR = 1.65 and 1.80 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our study clearly confirms a relationship between discrimination and unsafe sex among PLWHAs infected through either IDU or heterosexual contact. This relationship was especially strong in the heterosexual group that has become the main vector of HIV transmission in France, and who is the more likely of sexual mixing with the general population. These results seriously question the hypothesis that HIV-stigma has no effect or could even reduce the infection spread of HIV

A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain

Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock.We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed.The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain

Sin Nombre Virus and Rodent Species Diversity: A Test of the Dilution and Amplification Hypotheses

BACKGROUND:Species diversity is proposed to greatly impact the prevalence of pathogens. Two predominant hypotheses, the "Dilution Effect" and the "Amplification Effect", predict divergent outcomes with respect to the impact of species diversity. The Dilution Effect predicts that pathogen prevalence will be negatively correlated with increased species diversity, while the Amplification Effect predicts that pathogen prevalence will be positively correlated with diversity. For many host-pathogen systems, the relationship between diversity and pathogen prevalence has not be empirically examined. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We tested the Dilution and Amplification Effect hypotheses by examining the prevalence of Sin Nombre virus (SNV) with respect to diversity of the nocturnal rodent community. SNV is directly transmitted primarily between deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). Using mark-recapture sampling in the Spring and Fall of 2003-2005, we measured SNV prevalence in deer mice at 16 landscape level sites (3.1 hectares each) that varied in rodent species diversity. We explored several mechanisms by which species diversity may affect SNV prevalence, including reduced host density, reduced host persistence, the presence of secondary reservoirs and community composition. We found a negative relationship between species diversity and SNV prevalence in deer mice, thereby supporting the Dilution Effect hypothesis. Deer mouse density and persistence were lower at sites with greater species diversity; however, only deer mouse persistence was positively correlated with SNV prevalence. Pinyon mice (P. truei) may serve as dilution agents, having a negative effect on prevalence, while kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), may have a positive effect on the prevalence of SNV, perhaps through effects on deer mouse behavior. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:While previous studies on host-pathogen systems have found patterns of diversity consistent with either the Dilution or Amplification Effects, the mechanisms by which species diversity influences prevalence have not been investigated. Our study indicates that changes in host persistence, coupled with interspecific interactions, are important mechanisms through which diversity may influence patterns of pathogens. Our results reveal the complexity of rodent community interactions with respect to SNV dynamics

Effect of Chronic Kidney Diseases on Mortality among Digoxin Users Treated for Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Register-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: This study investigated the impact of chronic kidney disease on all-causes and cardiovascular mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with digoxin. METHODS: All patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and/or atrial flutter as hospitalization diagnosis from January 1, 1997 to December 31, 2012 were identified in Danish nationwide administrative registries. Cox proportional hazard model was used to compare the adjusted risk of all-causes and cardiovascular mortality among patients with and without chronic kidney disease and among patients with different chronic kidney disease stages within 180 days and 2 years from the first digoxin prescription. RESULTS: We identified 37,981 patients receiving digoxin; 1884 patients had the diagnosis of chronic kidney disease. Cox regression analysis showed no statistically significant differences in all-causes (Hazard Ratio, HR 0.89; 95% confident interval, CI 0.78-1.03) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.88; 95%CI 0.74-1.05) among patients with and without chronic kidney disease within 180 days of follow-up period. No statistically significant differences was found using a 2 years follow-up period neither for all causes mortality (HR 0.90; 95%CI 0.79-1.03), nor for cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.87; 95%CI 0.74-1.02). No statistically significant differences was found comparing patients with and without estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate <30ml/min/1.73m2 and patients with different stages of chronic kidney disease, for all-causes and cardiovascular mortality within 180 days and 2 years from the first digoxin prescription. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggest no direct effect of chronic kidney disease and chronic kidney disease stages on all-causes and cardiovascular mortality within both 180 days and 2 years from the first digoxin prescription in patients treatment-naïve with digoxin for non-valvular atrial fibrillation

Shape similarity, better than semantic membership, accounts for the structure of visual object representations in a population of monkey inferotemporal neurons

The anterior inferotemporal cortex (IT) is the highest stage along the hierarchy of visual areas that, in primates, processes visual objects. Although several lines of evidence suggest that IT primarily represents visual shape information, some recent studies have argued that neuronal ensembles in IT code the semantic membership of visual objects (i.e., represent conceptual classes such as animate and inanimate objects). In this study, we investigated to what extent semantic, rather than purely visual information, is represented in IT by performing a multivariate analysis of IT responses to a set of visual objects. By relying on a variety of machine-learning approaches (including a cutting-edge clustering algorithm that has been recently developed in the domain of statistical physics), we found that, in most instances, IT representation of visual objects is accounted for by their similarity at the level of shape or, more surprisingly, low-level visual properties. Only in a few cases we observed IT representations of semantic classes that were not explainable by the visual similarity of their members. Overall, these findings reassert the primary function of IT as a conveyor of explicit visual shape information, and reveal that low-level visual properties are represented in IT to a greater extent than previously appreciated. In addition, our work demonstrates how combining a variety of state-of-the-art multivariate approaches, and carefully estimating the contribution of shape similarity to the representation of object categories, can substantially advance our understanding of neuronal coding of visual objects in cortex