An investigation of the thermal comfort and climate change resilience of bioclimatic design strategies for free running social housing in San Luis Potosi City, Mexico

Rising temperatures due to global warming will impact on thermal comfort conditions in the social housing sector throughout the XXI century. Social housing represents the majority of the new build stock in the forthcoming decades in low and mid income countries such as Mexico due to demographic trends. Those families in social housing are particularly vulnerable to thermal discomfort because of the high initial and operating costs of HVAC systems that represent an economic burden that many of them will not be able to afford in order to achieve thermal comfort. Complementarily, the indiscriminate adoption of HVAC systems will add pressure to the national energy network and will further exacerbate global warming by increasing the amount of energy consumed by households. On the other hand, cities such as San Luis Potosi, Mexico have a relatively mild climate year-round which make it particularly suitable for the implementation of passive design as a low-cost strategy in order to achieve thermal comfort. This research explores the potential of bioclimatic design strategies and locally available construction materials to generate thermal comfort and climate change resilience for free running social housing in San Luis Potosi up to 2080. To do so, a social housing prototype was designed in a contextually responsive way that incorporates several aspects of sustainability and translates them into architectural design guidelines. Then, the prototype was used for building energy simulations with DesignBuilder software in order to test the climate change resilience of the bioclimatic design strategies and locally available construction materials. Complementarily, parametric optimization simulations were done in order to find out the best windows sizes that would provide a balance between solar heat gains during the cold season while preventing over heating discomfort during the hot season. Simulation results demonstrated that it is possible to design free running social housing by the use of bioclimatic design, local construction materials, and natural ventilation. They also allowed to provide general design guidelines for the implementation of those parameters for the wider residential sector in San Luis Potosi City, Mexico. It was also found that the adaptive model of thermal comfort (AMTC) as developed by the ASHRAE 55-2013 standard is a suitable and locally appropriate first approach to thermal comfort for the social housing sector because it can incorporate people’s thermal acceptancy with a more flexible thermal comfort temperature band than the one traditionally used when designing with the static model of thermal comfort. In that sense, the AMTC opens research possibilities for the development of locally appropriate energy saving standards and policy making

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Chromatic Illumination Discrimination Ability Reveals that Human Colour Constancy Is Optimised for Blue Daylight Illuminations

The phenomenon of colour constancy in human visual perception keeps surface colours constant, despite changes in their reflected light due to changing illumination. Although colour constancy has evolved under a constrained subset of illuminations, it is unknown whether its underlying mechanisms, thought to involve multiple components from retina to cortex, are optimised for particular environmental variations. Here we demonstrate a new method for investigating colour constancy using illumination matching in real scenes which, unlike previous methods using surface matching and simulated scenes, allows testing of multiple, real illuminations. We use real scenes consisting of solid familiar or unfamiliar objects against uniform or variegated backgrounds and compare discrimination performance for typical illuminations from the daylight chromaticity locus (approximately blue-yellow) and atypical spectra from an orthogonal locus (approximately red-green, at correlated colour temperature 6700 K), all produced in real time by a 10-channel LED illuminator. We find that discrimination of illumination changes is poorer along the daylight locus than the atypical locus, and is poorest particularly for bluer illumination changes, demonstrating conversely that surface colour constancy is best for blue daylight illuminations. Illumination discrimination is also enhanced, and therefore colour constancy diminished, for uniform backgrounds, irrespective of the object type. These results are not explained by statistical properties of the scene signal changes at the retinal level. We conclude that high-level mechanisms of colour constancy are biased for the blue daylight illuminations and variegated backgrounds to which the human visual system has typically been exposed

Microtubules gate tau condensation to spatially regulate microtubule functions.

Tau is an abundant microtubule-associated protein in neurons. Tau aggregation into insoluble fibrils is a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia1, yet the physiological state of tau molecules within cells remains unclear. Using single-molecule imaging, we directly observe that the microtubule lattice regulates reversible tau self-association, leading to localized, dynamic condensation of tau molecules on the microtubule surface. Tau condensates form selectively permissible barriers, spatially regulating the activity of microtubule-severing enzymes and the movement of molecular motors through their boundaries. We propose that reversible self-association of tau molecules, gated by the microtubule lattice, is an important mechanism of the biological functions of tau, and that oligomerization of tau is a common property shared between the physiological and disease-associated forms of the molecule

Inhibition of Reactive Gliosis Attenuates Excitotoxicity-Mediated Death of Retinal Ganglion Cells

Reactive gliosis is a hallmark of many retinal neurodegenerative conditions, including glaucoma. Although a majority of studies to date have concentrated on reactive gliosis in the optic nerve head, very few studies have been initiated to investigate the role of reactive gliosis in the retina. We have previously shown that reactive glial cells synthesize elevated levels of proteases, and these proteases, in turn, promote the death of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). In this investigation, we have used two glial toxins to inhibit reactive gliosis and have evaluated their effect on protease-mediated death of RGCs. Kainic acid was injected into the vitreous humor of C57BL/6 mice to induce reactive gliosis and death of RGCs. C57BL/6 mice were also treated with glial toxins, alpha-aminoadipic acid (AAA) or Neurostatin, along with KA. Reactive gliosis was assessed by immunostaining of retinal cross sections and retinal flat-mounts with glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and vimentin antibodies. Apoptotic cell death was assessed by TUNEL assays. Loss of RGCs was determined by immunostaining of flat-mounted retinas with Brn3a antibodies. Proteolytic activities of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9), tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), and urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA) were assessed by zymography assays. GFAP-immunoreactivity indicated that KA induced reactive gliosis in both retinal astrocytes and in Muller cells. AAA alone or in combination with KA decreased GFAP and vimentin-immunoreactivity in Mϋller cells, but not in astrocytes. In addition AAA failed to decrease KA-mediated protease levels and apoptotic death of RGCs. In contrast, Neurostatin either alone or in combination with KA, decreased reactive gliosis in both astrocytes and Mϋller cells. Furthermore, Neurostatin decreased protease levels and prevented apoptotic death of RGCs. Our findings, for the first time, indicate that inhibition of reactive gliosis decreases protease levels in the retina, prevents apoptotic death of retinal neurons, and provides substantial neuroprotection

Evaluating human papillomavirus vaccination programs in Canada: should provincial healthcare pay for voluntary adult vaccination?

Abstract Background Recently, provincial health programs in Canada and elsewhere have begun rolling out vaccination against human papillomavirus for girls aged 9–13. While vaccination is voluntary, the cost of vaccination is waived, to encourage parents to have their daughters vaccinated. Adult women who are eligible for the vaccine may still receive it, but at a cost of approximately CAN$400. Given the high efficacy and immunogenicity of the vaccine, the possibility of eradicating targeted types of the virus may be feasible, assuming the vaccination programs are undertaken strategically. Methods We develop a mathematical model to describe the epidemiology of vaccination against human papillomavirus, accounting for a widespread childhood vaccination program that may be supplemented by voluntary adult vaccination. A stability analysis is performed to determine the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The critical vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity thresholds are derived, and the minimum level of adult vaccination required for eradication of targeted types is determined. Results We demonstrate that eradication of targeted types is indeed feasible, although the burden of coverage for a childhood-only vaccination program may be high. However, if a small, but non-negligible, proportion of eligible adults can be vaccinated, then the possibility of eradication of targeted types becomes much more favourable. We provide a threshold for eradication in general communities and illustrate the results with numerical simulations. We also investigate the effects of suboptimal efficacy and immunogenicity and show that there is a critical efficacy below which eradication of targeted types is not possible. If eradication is possible, then there is a critical immunogenicity such that even 100% childhood vaccination will not eradicate the targeted types of the virus and must be supplemented with voluntary adult vaccination. However, the level of adult vaccination coverage required is modest and may be achieved simply by removing the cost burden to vaccination. Conclusion We recommend that provincial healthcare programs should pay for voluntary adult vaccination for women aged 14–26. However, it should be noted that our model results are preliminary, in that we have made a number of simplifying assumptions, including a lack of age-dependency in sexual partner rates, a lack of sexual activity outside of the vaccine age-range among females and a uniform age of sexual debut; thus, further work is desired to enhance the external generalisability of our results.</p

Sex-Specific Immunization for Sexually Transmitted Infections Such as Human Papillomavirus: Insights from Mathematical Models

Johannes Bogaards and colleagues use mathematical models to investigate whether vaccinating females only, males only, or both sexes is the best way to achieve the most effective reduction in the population prevalence of sexually-transmitted infection