A Path Integral Approach to Age Dependent Branching Processes

Age dependent population dynamics are frequently modeled with generalizations of the classic McKendrick-von Foerster equation. These are deterministic systems, and a stochastic generalization was recently reported in [1,2]. Here we develop a fully stochastic theory for age-structured populations via quantum field theoretical Doi-Peliti techniques. This results in a path integral formulation where birth and death events correspond to cubic and quadratic interaction terms. This formalism allows us to efficiently recapitulate the results in [1,2], exemplifying the utility of Doi-Peliti methods. Furthermore, we find that the path integral formulation for age-structured moments has an exact perturbative expansion that explicitly relates to the hereditary structure between correlated individuals. These methods are then generalized with a binary fission model of cell division

Effect of acute pesticide exposure on bee spatial working memory using an analogue of the radial-arm maze

Pesticides, including neonicotinoids, typically target pest insects by being neurotoxic. Inadvertent exposure to foraging insect pollinators is usually sub-lethal, but may affect cognition. One cognitive trait, spatial working memory, may be important in avoiding previously-visited flowers and other spatial tasks such as navigation. To test this, we investigated the effect of acute thiamethoxam exposure on spatial working memory in the bumblebee Bombus terrestris, using an adaptation of the radial-arm maze (RAM). We first demonstrated that bumblebees use spatial working memory to solve the RAM by showing that untreated bees performed significantly better than would be expected if choices were random or governed by stereotyped visitation rules. We then exposed bees to either a high sub-lethal positive control thiamethoxam dose (2.5ng-1 bee), or one of two low doses (0.377 or 0.091ng-1) based on estimated field-realistic exposure. The high dose caused bees to make more and earlier spatial memory errors and take longer to complete the task than unexposed bees. For the low doses, the negative effects were smaller but statistically significant, and dependent on bee size. The spatial working memory impairment shown here has the potential to harm bees exposed to thiamethoxam, through possible impacts on foraging efficiency or homing

Independent Risk Factors for Injury in Pre-School Children: Three Population-Based Nested Case-Control Studies Using Routine Primary Care Data

Background: Injuries in childhood are largely preventable yet an estimated 2,400 children die every day because of injury and violence. Despite this, the factors that contribute to injury occurrence have not been quantified at the population scale using primary care data. We used The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database to identify risk factors for thermal injury, fractures and poisoning in pre-school children in order to inform the optimal delivery of preventative strategies. Methods: We used a matched, nested case-control study design. Cases were children under 5 with a first medically recorded injury, comprising 3,649 thermal injury cases, 4,050 fracture cases and 2,193 poisoning cases, matched on general practice to 94,620 control children. Results: Younger maternal age and higher birth order increased the odds of all injuries. Children’s age of highest injury risk varied by injury type; compared with children under 1 year, thermal injuries were highest in those age 1-2 (OR = 2.43, 95%CI 2.23–2.65), poisonings in those age 2-3 (OR = 7.32, 95%CI 6.26–8.58) and fractures in those age 3-5 (OR = 3.80, 95%CI 3.42–4.23). Increasing deprivation was an important modifiable risk factor for poisonings and thermal injuries (tests for trend p#0.001) as were hazardous/harmful alcohol consumption by a household adult (OR = 1.73, 95%CI 1.26–2.38 and OR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.07–1.81 respectively) and maternal diagnosis of depression (OR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.24–1.70 and OR = 1.16, 95%CI 1.02–1.32 respectively). Fracture was not associated with these factors, however, not living in single-adult household reduced the odds of fracture (OR = 0.88, 95%CI 0.82–0.95). Conclusions: Maternal depression, hazardous/harmful adult alcohol consumption and socioeconomic deprivation represent important modifiable risk factors for thermal injury and poisoning but not fractures in preschool children. Since these risk factors can be ascertained from routine primary care records, pre-school children’s frequent visits to primary care present an opportunity to reduce injury risk by implementing effective preventative interventions from existing national guidelines

V838 Monocerotis: A Geometric Distance from Hubble Space Telescope Polarimetric Imaging of its Light Echo

Following the outburst of the unusual variable star V838 Monocerotis in 2002, a spectacular light echo appeared. A light echo provides the possibility of direct geometric distance determination, because it should contain a ring of highly linearly polarized light at a linear radius of ct, where t is the time since the outburst. We present imaging polarimetry of the V838 Mon light echo, obtained in 2002 and 2005 with the Advanced Camera for Surveys onboard the Hubble Space Telescope, which confirms the presence of the highly polarized ring. Based on detailed modeling that takes into account the outburst light curve, the paraboloidal echo geometry, and the physics of dust scattering and polarization, we find a distance of 6.1+-0.6 kpc. The error is dominated by the systematic uncertainty in the scattering angle of maximum linear polarization, taken to be theta_{max}=90^o +- 5^o. The polarimetric distance agrees remarkably well with a distance of 6.2+-1.5 kpc obtained from the entirely independent method of main-sequence fitting to a sparse star cluster associated with V838 Mon. At this distance, V838 Mon at maximum light had M_V\simeq-9.8, making it temporarily one of the most luminous stars in the Local Group. Our validation of the polarimetric method offers promise for measurement of extragalactic distances using supernova light echoes.Comment: 43 pages, 17 figures, 3 tables; accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal. Version with high-quality figures available at http://www.stsci.edu/~bond/v838monpolariz.pd

The DES bright arcs survey: hundreds of candidate strongly lensed galaxy systems from the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification and year 1 observations

We report the results of searches for strong gravitational lens systems in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Verification and Year 1 observations. The Science Verification data span approximately 250 sq. deg. with a median i-band limiting magnitude for extended objects (10σ) of 23.0. The Year 1 data span approximately 2000 sq. deg. and have an i-band limiting magnitude for extended objects (10σ) of 22.9. As these data sets are both wide and deep, they are particularly useful for identifying strong gravitational lens candidates. Potential strong gravitational lens candidate systems were initially identified based on a color and magnitude selection in the DES object catalogs or because the system is at the location of a previously identified galaxy cluster. Cutout images of potential candidates were then visually scanned using an object viewer and numerically ranked according to whether or not we judged them to be likely strong gravitational lens systems. Having scanned nearly 400,000 cutouts, we present 374 candidate strong lens systems, of which 348 are identified for the first time. We provide the R.A. and decl., the magnitudes and photometric properties of the lens and source objects, and the distance (radius) of the source(s) from the lens center for each system

Modelling prognostic factors in advanced pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer is the fifth most common cause of cancer death. Identification of defined patient groups based on a prognostic index may improve the prediction of survival and selection of therapy. Many prognostic factors have been identified often based on retrospective, underpowered studies with unclear analyses. Data from 653 patients were analysed. Continuous variables are often simplified assuming a linear relationship with log hazard or introducing a step function (dichotomising). Misspecification may lead to inappropriate conclusions but has not been previously investigated in pancreatic cancer studies. Models based on standard assumptions were compared with a novel approach using nonlinear fractional polynomial (FP) transformations. The model based on FP-transformed covariates was most appropriate and confirmed five previously reported prognostic factors: albumin, CA19-9, alkaline phosphatase, LDH and metastases, and identified three additional factors not previously reported: WBC, AST and BUN. The effects of CA19-9, alkaline phosphatase, AST and BUN may go unrecognised due to simplistic assumptions made in statistical modelling. We advocate a multivariable approach that uses information contained within continuous variables appropriately. The functional form of the relationship between continuous covariates and survival should always be assessed. Our model should aid individual patient risk stratification and the design and analysis of future trials in pancreatic cancer

Alteration of EGFR Spatiotemporal Dynamics Suppresses Signal Transduction

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), which regulates cell growth and survival, is integral to colon tumorigenesis. Lipid rafts play a role in regulating EGFR signaling, and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is known to perturb membrane domain organization through changes in lipid rafts. Therefore, we investigated the mechanistic link between EGFR function and DHA. Membrane incorporation of DHA into immortalized colonocytes altered the lateral organization of EGFR. DHA additionally increased EGFR phosphorylation but paradoxically suppressed downstream signaling. Assessment of the EGFR-Ras-ERK1/2 signaling cascade identified Ras GTP binding as the locus of the DHA-induced disruption of signal transduction. DHA also antagonized EGFR signaling capacity by increasing receptor internalization and degradation. DHA suppressed cell proliferation in an EGFR-dependent manner, but cell proliferation could be partially rescued by expression of constitutively active Ras. Feeding chronically-inflamed, carcinogen-injected C57BL/6 mice a fish oil containing diet enriched in DHA recapitulated the effects on the EGFR signaling axis observed in cell culture and additionally suppressed tumor formation. We conclude that DHA-induced alteration in both the lateral and subcellular localization of EGFR culminates in the suppression of EGFR downstream signal transduction, which has implications for the molecular basis of colon cancer prevention by DHA

Observation and confirmation of six strong-lensing systems in the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data

We report the observation and confirmation of the first group- and cluster-scale strong gravitational lensing systems found in Dark Energy Survey data. Through visual inspection of data from the Science Verification season, we identified 53 candidate systems. We then obtained spectroscopic follow-up of 21 candidates using the Gemini Multi-object Spectrograph at the Gemini South telescope and the Inamori-Magellan Areal Camera and Spectrograph at the Magellan/Baade telescope. With this follow-up, we confirmed six candidates as gravitational lenses: three of the systems are newly discovered, and the remaining three were previously known. Of the 21 observed candidates, the remaining 15 either were not detected in spectroscopic observations, were observed and did not exhibit continuum emission (or spectral features), or were ruled out as lensing systems. The confirmed sample consists of one group-scale and five galaxy-cluster-scale lenses. The lensed sources range in redshift z ˜ 0.80--3.2 and in i-band surface brightness i SB ˜ 23--25 mag arcsec-2 (2" aperture). For each of the six systems, we estimate the Einstein radius theta E and the enclosed mass M enc, which have ranges theta E ˜ 5"--9" and M enc ˜ 8 × 1012 to 6 × 1013 M &sun;, respectively. This paper includes data gathered with the 6.5 m Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile