Estimating the dimension of a linear system

AbstractThe problem considered is that of estimating the integer or integers that prescribe the dimension of a linear system. These could be the Kronecker indices. Though attention is concentrated on the order or McMillan degree, which specifies the dimension of a minimal state vector, the same results are available for other cases. A fairly complete theorem is proved relating to conditions under which strong or weak convergence will hold for an estimate of the McMillan degree when the estimation is based on minimisation of a criterion of the form log det(Ω̌n) + nC(T)/T, where Ω̌n, is the estimate of the prediction error covariance matrix and the McMillan degree is assumed to be n. The conditions relate to the prescribed sequence C(T)

Duration of environmental enrichment determines astrocyte number and cervical lymph node T lymphocyte proportions but not the microglial number in middle-aged C57BL/6 mice

Published: 18 March 2020Environmental enrichment (EE) has been shown to modulate behavior and immunity. We recently reported that both short and long-term EE enhance baseline locomotion and alleviate depressive-like behavior, but only long-term EE affects locomotion adversely in a threatening environment and enhances anxiety-like behavior in middle-age mice. We have now investigated whether the observed changes in behavior after short- and long-term EE were associated with underlying immune changes. Hence, at the end of behavioral testing, mice were sacrificed, and brains and cervical lymph nodes were collected to investigate the differential effects of the duration of EE (short- and long-term) on the number of immunopositive glial cells in the dentate gyrus, CA1, CA2, and CA3 regions of the hippocampus and proportions of T cell subsets in the cervical lymph nodes using immunohistochemistry and flow cytometry, respectively. EE, regardless of duration, caused an increase in microglia number within the dentate gyrus, CA1 and CA3 hippocampal regions, but only long-term EE increased astrocytes number within the dentate gyrus and CA3 hippocampal regions. A significantly higher proportion of CD8+ naive T cells was observed after long-term EE vs. short-term EE. No significant differences were observed in the proportion of central memory and effector memory T cells or early activated CD25+ cells between any of the test groups. Our results suggest that EE, irrespective of duration, enhances the numbers of microglia, but long-term EE is required to modify astrocyte number and peripheral T cell proportions in middle-aged mice. Our findings provide new insights into the therapeutic effects of EE on various brain disorders, which may be at least partly mediated by glial and neuroimmune modulation.Gaurav Singhal, Julie Morgan1, Magdalene C. Jawahar, Frances Corrigan, Emily J. Jaehne, Catherine Toben ... et al

Effects of aging on the motor, cognitive and affective behaviors, neuroimmune responses and hippocampal gene expression

The known effects of aging on the brain and behavior include impaired cognition, increases in anxiety and depressive-like behaviors, and reduced locomotor activity. Environmental exposures and interventions also influence brain functions during aging. We investigated the effects of normal aging under controlled environmental conditions and in the absence of external interventions on locomotor activity, cognition, anxiety and depressive-like behaviors, immune function and hippocampal gene expression in C57BL/6 mice. Healthy mice at 4, 9, and 14 months of age underwent behavioral testing using an established behavioral battery, followed by cellular and molecular analysis using flow cytometry, immunohistochemistry, and quantitative PCR. We found that 14-month-old mice showed significantly reduced baseline locomotion, increased anxiety, and impaired spatial memory compared to younger counterparts. However, no significant differences were observed for depressive-like behavior in the forced-swim test. Microglia numbers in the dentate gyrus, as well as CD8+ memory T cells increased towards late middle age. Aging processes exerted a significant effect on the expression of 43 genes of interest in the hippocampus. We conclude that aging is associated with specific changes in locomotor activity, cognition, anxiety-like behaviors, neuroimmune responses and hippocampal gene expression.Gaurav Singhal, Julie Morgan, Magdalene C.Jawahar, Frances Corrigan, Emily J.Jaehn

Cointegration analysis with state space models

Abstract: This paper presents and exemplifies results developed for cointegration analysis with state space models by Bauer and Wagner in a series of papers. Unit root processes, cointegration and polynomial cointegration are defined. Based upon these definitions the major part of the paper discusses how state space models, which are equivalent to VARMA models, can be fruitfully employed for cointegration analysis. By means of detailing the cases most relevant for empirical applications, the I(1), MFI(1) and I(2) cases, a canonical representation is developed and thereafter some available statistical results are briefly mentioned.

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A note on bilinear time series models

AbstractConditions for the existence of a stationary solution for certain forms of bilinear difference equations are derived