Medium term electrical load forecast of Abuja Municipal Area council using artificial neural network method

This paper presents a medium-term electric load forecast for Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC) distribution network based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The technique results are compared with that of a conventional method (Multiple Linear Regression method), for the same data. The ANN proposed method takes into account the effect of temperature, time, population growth rate and the activities of different regions of city areas regarding lifestyle and types of consumers. The data of monthly to annual peak values are collected for the period from 2012 to first quarter of 2018. Hence, the Artificial Neural Network method presented a result with average MAPE of 0.00197 while the multiple linear regression having an average MAPE of 0.004545. The R-Value deviation was 8.06% and 34.42% for ANN and MLR methods respectively. Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Forecast, Load, Energy Demand, Capacity Allocation, Percentage error, Forecasting Accuracy

Learning and Action Alliance framework to facilitate stakeholder collaboration and social learning in urban flood risk management

Flood and water management governance may be enhanced through partnership working, intra- and cross-organisational collaborations, and wide stakeholder participation. Nonetheless, barriers associated with ineffective communication, fragmented responsibilities and ‘siloed thinking’ restrict open dialogue and discussion. The Learning and Action Alliance (LAA) framework may help overcome these barriers by enabling effective engagement through social learning, and facilitating targeted actions needed to deliver innovative solutions to environmental problems. By increasing the adaptive capacity of decision-makers and participants, social learning through LAAs may lead to concerted action and sustained processes of behavioural change. In this paper, we evaluate the LAA framework as a catalyst for change that supports collaborative working and facilitates transition to more sustainable flood risk management. We use a case study in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK, to demonstrate how the LAA framework brought together disparate City stakeholders to co-produce new knowledge, negotiate innovative actions and, ultimately, work towards implementing a new vision for sustainable urban flood risk management. The shared vision of Newcastle as a ‘Blue-Green City’ that emerged is founded on a strong platform for social learning which increased organisations’ and individuals’ capacities to manage differences in perspectives and behaviours, reframe knowledge, and make collective decisions based on negotiation and conflict resolution. Broad recommendations based on lessons learned from the Newcastle LAA are presented to aid other cities and regions in establishing and running social learning platforms

HIS: Hierarchical Solver for Over-Constrained Satisfaction Problems

Constraint programming is an approach for solving mostly combinatorial problems by declaratively describing the problem and using special solving algorithms. Restrictions called constraints are stated over the problem variables that reduces the values each variable can take. In some cases it is not possible to satisfy all constraints or the user can state some preferences on them. One of the techniques to solve this kind of problems is modelling and solving the problem as a constraint hierarchy. This paper describes a hierarchical constraint solver HIS, which is developed in C++ using ILOG Solver as an ordinary constraint solver. HIS is based on refining algorithm. As an application a layout problem is considered. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006

The Changing Faces of Farmer-Led Irrigation: Lessons from Dynamic Irrigation Trajectories in Kenya and Zimbabwe

Farmer-led irrigation is valued for its resilience and ability to cope with shocks and benefit from opportunities. Yet, typologies of farmer-led irrigation are mostly static categorisations without analysing farmers’ decision-making over time, and without studying ‘failed’ cases. We therefore analysed temporal changes in farmers’ irrigation strategies to expand, downscale or cease practices as part of wider livelihood decisions and aspirations. This longitudinal study presents irrigation trajectories of 32 farmers in the arid lands of two contrasting socioeconomic settings in Kenya and Zimbabwe. Data were collected through multiple rounds of surveys and in-depth interviews. Results show that farmers frequently alternated strategies or ceased or restarted operations over the years, both by force and choice. Although many farmers were able to start, expand or sustain irrigation, not all managed or aspired to remain engaged in irrigated farming, even if the enabling environment was conducive for market-oriented irrigation development. We therefore conclude that farmers’ needs cannot always be expressed in general terms of growth or commercial farming, nor can they always be satisfied by improving the enabling environment, which may be based on static ontologies of diverse types of farmers.</p

Security in flexibility: Accessing land and water for irrigation in Kenya-s changing rural environment

In the semi-arid lands of southern Kenya, a dynamic process of farmer-led irrigation has developed over the past two decades. It is characterised by short-term agreements to access land and water. Resident and migrant farmers, capital providers and local landowners have engaged in diverse partnerships to benefit from water and land along the Olkeriai sand river. This study aims to unravel which actors and motives drive the resulting highly dynamic forms of irrigation. Surveys, in-depth interviews and mapping exercises with farmers, capital providers and landowners were conducted over a period of 1.5-years. The results show that involved actors favour short-term lease and partnership arrangements and farmers frequently change fields along the river or leave the area and return. It is primarily the migrant farmers and capital providers who take decisions on when and where to move. They are informed by their experience with production factors, financial gains and losses, partner relations, or the ability to expand. We conclude that individualisation of land rights, migration, abundance of water, proximate markets, and rural-urban networks are instrumental to the emergence of this dynamic form of agriculture. Farmers have found a degree of security in flexibility, to access land and water in shifting fields and partners, rather than in property rights for specific plots. Yet, the short-term scope of these operations for monetary gains raises concerns about the sustainable use of land and water resources in the region. Water Resource