Family structure and voter turnout

Working PaperWe use data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey to explore the effects of family structure on turnout in the 2000 presidential election. Our results indicate that family structure, defined as marital status and the presence of children, has substantial implications for turnout. Married adults vote more frequently than do those who have never been married; in turn, previously married people are the lightest voters. On the other hand, the effects of children on turnout are small and inconsistent. These findings are only partially explained by social and demographic differences

Web Workload Generation According to the UniLoG Approach

Generating synthetic loads which are suffciently close to reality represents an important and challenging task in performance and quality-of-service (QoS) evaluations of computer networks and distributed systems. Here, the load to be generated represents sequences of requests at a well-defined service interface within a network node. The paper presents a tool (UniLoG.HTTP) which can be used in a flexible manner to generate realistic and representative server and network loads, in terms of access requests to Web servers as well as creation of typical Web traffic within a communication network. The paper describes the architecture of this load generator, the critical design decisions and solution approaches which allowed us to obtain the desired flexibility

A new method for the estimation of variance matrix with prescribed zeros in nonlinear mixed effects models

We propose a new method for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of nonlinear mixed effects models when the variance matrix of Gaussian random effects has a prescribed pattern of zeros (PPZ). The method consists in coupling the recently developed Iterative Conditional Fitting (ICF) algorithm with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. It provides positive definite estimates for any sample size, and does not rely on any structural assumption on the PPZ. It can be easily adapted to many versions of EM.Comment: Accepted for publication in Statistics and Computin

Family Structure and Voter Turnout

Abstract We use data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey to explore the effects of family structure on turnout in the 2000 presidential election. Our results indicate that family structure, defined as marital status and the presence of children, has substantial consequences for turnout. Married adults are more likely to vote than are those who have never been married; in turn, previously married people are the lightest voters. Children have a smaller but still noteworthy effect on turnout. These results are only partially explained by social and demographic differences

Environmental effects on progesterone profile measures of dairy cow fertility

Environmental effects on fertility measures early in lactation, such as the interval from calving to first luteal activity (CLA), proportion of samples with luteal activity during the first 60 days after calving (PLA) and interval to first ovulatory oestrus (OOE) were studied. In addition, traditional measurements of fertility, such as pregnancy to first insemination, number of inseminations per service period and interval from first to last insemination were studied as well as associations between the early and late measurements. Data were collected from an experimental herd during 15 years and included 1106 post-partum periods from 191 Swedish Holsteins and 325 Swedish Red and White dairy cows. Individual milk progesterone samples were taken twice a week until cyclicity and thereafter less frequently. First parity cows had 14.8 and 18.1 days longer CLA (LS-means difference) than second parity cows and older cows, respectively. Moreover, CLA was 10.5 days longer for cows that calved during the winter season compared with the summer season and 7.5 days longer for cows in tie-stalls than cows in loose-housing system. Cows treated for mastitis and lameness had 8.4 and 18.0 days longer CLA, respectively, compared with healthy cows. OOE was affected in the same way as CLA by the different environmental factors. PLA was a good indicator of CLA, and there was a high correlation (−0.69) between these two measurements. Treatment for lameness had a significant influence on all late fertility measurements, whereas housing was significant only for pregnancy to first insemination. All fertility traits were unfavourably associated with increased milk production. Regression of late fertility measurements on early fertility measurements had only a minor association with conception at first AI and interval from first to last AI for cows with conventional calving intervals, i.e. a 22 days later, CLA increased the interval from first to last insemination by 3.4 days. Early measurements had repeatabilities of 0.14–0.16, indicating a higher influence by the cow itself compared with late measurements, which had repeatabilities of 0.09–0.10. Our study shows that early fertility measurements have a possibility to be used in breeding for better fertility. To improve the early fertility of the cow, there are a number of important factors that have to be taken into account

A stitch in time: Efficient computation of genomic DNA melting bubbles

Background: It is of biological interest to make genome-wide predictions of the locations of DNA melting bubbles using statistical mechanics models. Computationally, this poses the challenge that a generic search through all combinations of bubble starts and ends is quadratic. Results: An efficient algorithm is described, which shows that the time complexity of the task is O(NlogN) rather than quadratic. The algorithm exploits that bubble lengths may be limited, but without a prior assumption of a maximal bubble length. No approximations, such as windowing, have been introduced to reduce the time complexity. More than just finding the bubbles, the algorithm produces a stitch profile, which is a probabilistic graphical model of bubbles and helical regions. The algorithm applies a probability peak finding method based on a hierarchical analysis of the energy barriers in the Poland-Scheraga model. Conclusions: Exact and fast computation of genomic stitch profiles is thus feasible. Sequences of several megabases have been computed, only limited by computer memory. Possible applications are the genome-wide comparisons of bubbles with promotors, TSS, viral integration sites, and other melting-related regions.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure

An R 2 statistic for fixed effects in the linear mixed model

Statisticians most often use the linear mixed model to analyze Gaussian longitudinal data. The value and familiarity of the R2 statistic in the linear univariate model naturally creates great interest in extending it to the linear mixed model. We define and describe how to compute a model R2 statistic for the linear mixed model by using only a single model. The proposed R2 statistic measures multivariate association between the repeated outcomes and the fixed effects in the linear mixed model. The R2 statistic arises as a 1–1 function of an appropriate F statistic for testing all fixed effects (except typically the intercept) in a full model. The statistic compares the full model to a null model with all fixed effects deleted (except typically the intercept) while retaining exactly the same covariance structure. Furthermore, the R2 statistic leads immediately to a natural definition of a partial R2 statistic. A mixed model in which ethnicity gives a very small p-value as a longitudinal predictor of blood pressure compellingly illustrates the value of the statistic. In sharp contrast to the extreme p-value, a very small R2, a measure of statistical and scientific importance, indicates that ethnicity has an almost negligible association with the repeated blood pressure outcomes for the study

Comparing Competing Theories on the Causes of Mandate Perceptions

The discussion of presidential mandates is as certain as a presidential election itself. Journalists inevitably discuss whether the president-elect has a popular mandate. Because they see elections as too complex to allow the public to send a unitary signal, political scientists are more skeptical of mandates. Mandates, however, have received new attention by scholars asking whether perceptions of mandate arise and lead representatives to act as if voters sent a policy directive. Two explanations have emerged to account for why elected officials might react to such perceptions. One focuses on the President’s strategic decision to declare a mandate, the second on how members of Congress read signals of changing preferences in the electorate from their own election results. We test these competing views to see which more accurately explains how members of Congress act in support of a perceived mandate. The results indicate that members respond more to messages about changing preferences than to the president’s mandate declaration