Indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic at two tertiary neonatal units in Zimbabwe and Malawi: an interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on neonatal care in low-income and middle-income countries. DESIGN: Interrupted time series analysis. SETTING: Two tertiary neonatal units in Harare, Zimbabwe and Lilongwe, Malawi. PARTICIPANTS: We included a total of 6800 neonates who were admitted to either neonatal unit from 1 June 2019 to 25 September 2020 (Zimbabwe: 3450; Malawi: 3350). We applied no specific exclusion criteria. INTERVENTIONS: The first cases of COVID-19 in each country (Zimbabwe: 20 March 2020; Malawi: 3 April 2020). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in the number of admissions, gestational age and birth weight, source of admission referrals, prevalence of neonatal encephalopathy, and overall mortality before and after the first cases of COVID-19. RESULTS: Admission numbers in Zimbabwe did not initially change after the first case of COVID-19 but fell by 48% during a nurses' strike (relative risk (RR) 0.52, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.66, p0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The indirect impacts of COVID-19 are context-specific. While our study provides vital evidence to inform health providers and policy-makers, national data are required to ascertain the true impacts of the pandemic on newborn health

Protocol for an intervention development and pilot implementation evaluation study of an e-health solution to improve newborn care quality and survival in two low-resource settings, Malawi and Zimbabwe: Neotree.

INTRODUCTION: Every year 2.4 million deaths occur worldwide in babies younger than 28 days. Approximately 70% of these deaths occur in low-resource settings because of failure to implement evidence-based interventions. Digital health technologies may offer an implementation solution. Since 2014, we have worked in Bangladesh, Malawi, Zimbabwe and the UK to develop and pilot Neotree: an android app with accompanying data visualisation, linkage and export. Its low-cost hardware and state-of-the-art software are used to improve bedside postnatal care and to provide insights into population health trends, to impact wider policy and practice. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a mixed methods (1) intervention codevelopment and optimisation and (2) pilot implementation evaluation (including economic evaluation) study. Neotree will be implemented in two hospitals in Zimbabwe, and one in Malawi. Over the 2-year study period clinical and demographic newborn data will be collected via Neotree, in addition to behavioural science informed qualitative and quantitative implementation evaluation and measures of cost, newborn care quality and usability. Neotree clinical decision support algorithms will be optimised according to best available evidence and clinical validation studies. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This is a Wellcome Trust funded project (215742_Z_19_Z). Research ethics approvals have been obtained: Malawi College of Medicine Research and Ethics Committee (P.01/20/2909; P.02/19/2613); UCL (17123/001, 6681/001, 5019/004); Medical Research Council Zimbabwe (MRCZ/A/2570), BRTI and JREC institutional review boards (AP155/2020; JREC/327/19), Sally Mugabe Hospital Ethics Committee (071119/64; 250418/48). Results will be disseminated via academic publications and public and policy engagement activities. In this study, the care for an estimated 15 000 babies across three sites will be impacted. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT0512707; Pre-results

Biogeographical survey of soil microbiomes across sub-Saharan Africa:structure, drivers, and predicted climate-driven changes

BACKGROUND: Top-soil microbiomes make a vital contribution to the Earth’s ecology and harbor an extraordinarily high biodiversity. They are also key players in many ecosystem services, particularly in arid regions of the globe such as the African continent. While several recent studies have documented patterns in global soil microbial ecology, these are largely biased towards widely studied regions and rely on models to interpolate the microbial diversity of other regions where there is low data coverage. This is the case for sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of regional microbial studies is very low in comparison to other continents. RESULTS: The aim of this study was to conduct an extensive biogeographical survey of sub-Saharan Africa’s top-soil microbiomes, with a specific focus on investigating the environmental drivers of microbial ecology across the region. In this study, we sampled 810 sample sites across 9 sub-Saharan African countries and used taxonomic barcoding to profile the microbial ecology of these regions. Our results showed that the sub-Saharan nations included in the study harbor qualitatively distinguishable soil microbiomes. In addition, using soil chemistry and climatic data extracted from the same sites, we demonstrated that the top-soil microbiome is shaped by a broad range of environmental factors, most notably pH, precipitation, and temperature. Through the use of structural equation modeling, we also developed a model to predict how soil microbial biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa might be affected by future climate change scenarios. This model predicted that the soil microbial biodiversity of countries such as Kenya will be negatively affected by increased temperatures and decreased precipitation, while the fungal biodiversity of Benin will benefit from the increase in annual precipitation. CONCLUSION: This study represents the most extensive biogeographical survey of sub-Saharan top-soil microbiomes to date. Importantly, this study has allowed us to identify countries in sub-Saharan Africa that might be particularly vulnerable to losses in soil microbial ecology and productivity due to climate change. Considering the reliance of many economies in the region on rain-fed agriculture, this study provides crucial information to support conservation efforts in the countries that will be most heavily impacted by climate change. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40168-022-01297-w

Development and implementation experience of a learning healthcare system for facility based newborn care in low resource settings: The Neotree

Introduction: Improving peri- and postnatal facility-based care in low-resource settings (LRS) could save over 6000 babies' lives per day. Most of the annual 2.4 million neonatal deaths and 2 million stillbirths occur in healthcare facilities in LRS and are preventable through the implementation of cost-effective, simple, evidence-based interventions. However, their implementation is challenging in healthcare systems where one in four babies admitted to neonatal units die. In high-resource settings healthcare systems strengthening is increasingly delivered via learning healthcare systems to optimise care quality, but this approach is rare in LRS. Methods: Since 2014 we have worked in Bangladesh, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and the UK to co-develop and pilot the Neotree system: an android application with accompanying data visualisation, linkage, and export. Its low-cost hardware and state-of-the-art software are used to support healthcare professionals to improve postnatal care at the bedside and to provide insights into population health trends. Here we summarise the formative conceptualisation, development, and preliminary implementation experience of the Neotree. Results: Data thus far from ~18 000 babies, 400 healthcare professionals in four hospitals (two in Zimbabwe, two in Malawi) show high acceptability, feasibility, usability, and improvements in healthcare professionals' ability to deliver newborn care. The data also highlight gaps in knowledge in newborn care and quality improvement. Implementation has been resilient and informative during external crises, for example, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We have demonstrated evidence of improvements in clinical care and use of data for Quality Improvement (QI) projects. Conclusion: Human-centred digital development of a QI system for newborn care has demonstrated the potential of a sustainable learning healthcare system to improve newborn care and outcomes in LRS. Pilot implementation evaluation is ongoing in three of the four aforementioned hospitals (two in Zimbabwe and one in Malawi) and a larger scale clinical cost effectiveness trial is planned

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control

Additional file 2 of Biogeographical survey of soil microbiomes across sub-Saharan Africa: structure, drivers, and predicted climate-driven changes

Additional file 2. Figure S2. Significant (p-value \u3c 0.01) variation of soil chemistry and climatic variables across African countries. Significance was calculated using the Kruskal-Wallis test for non-parametric data distributions, while pair-wise comparison was calculated using the pairwise Wilcox test. Significant results are indicated using the following nomenclature: * - p-value \u3c 0.05; ** - p-value \u3c 0.01; *** - p-value \u3c 0.001

Additional file 19 of Biogeographical survey of soil microbiomes across sub-Saharan Africa: structure, drivers, and predicted climate-driven changes

Additional file 19. Table S8. Variable codes, meaning and units for the environmental variables used in this study

Additional file 7 of Biogeographical survey of soil microbiomes across sub-Saharan Africa: structure, drivers, and predicted climate-driven changes

Additional file 7. Figure S7. MIROC6 model predictions for mean annual temperature (oC) (A) and mean annual precipitation (mm) (B) under too different GH emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), predicted for 2040-2060 and 2080-2100 temporal windows. The predicted datasets are grouped according to country, as indicated by the vertical dashed lines

Additional file 13 of Biogeographical survey of soil microbiomes across sub-Saharan Africa: structure, drivers, and predicted climate-driven changes

Additional file 13. Table S2. Taxonomy of prokaryotic taxa in the dominant fraction of the microbial community, at the Class taxrank