Analysis of rolling group therapy data using conditionally autoregressive priors

Group therapy is a central treatment modality for behavioral health disorders such as alcohol and other drug use (AOD) and depression. Group therapy is often delivered under a rolling (or open) admissions policy, where new clients are continuously enrolled into a group as space permits. Rolling admissions policies result in a complex correlation structure among client outcomes. Despite the ubiquity of rolling admissions in practice, little guidance on the analysis of such data is available. We discuss the limitations of previously proposed approaches in the context of a study that delivered group cognitive behavioral therapy for depression to clients in residential substance abuse treatment. We improve upon previous rolling group analytic approaches by fully modeling the interrelatedness of client depressive symptom scores using a hierarchical Bayesian model that assumes a conditionally autoregressive prior for session-level random effects. We demonstrate improved performance using our method for estimating the variance of model parameters and the enhanced ability to learn about the complex correlation structure among participants in rolling therapy groups. Our approach broadly applies to any group therapy setting where groups have changing client composition. It will lead to more efficient analyses of client-level data and improve the group therapy research community's ability to understand how the dynamics of rolling groups lead to client outcomes.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS434 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Outcome of Diagnostic Tests Using Samples from Patients with Culture-Proven Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis: Implications for Surveillance

We describe the concordance among results from various laboratory tests using samples derived from nine culture-proven cases of human monocytic ehrlichiosis (HME) caused by Ehrlichia chaffeensis. A class-specific indirect immunofluorescence assay for immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgG, using E. chaffeensis antigen, identified 44 and 33% of the isolation-confirmed HME patients on the basis of samples obtained at initial clinical presentation, respectively; detection of morulae in blood smears was similarly insensitive (22% positive). PCR amplifications of ehrlichial DNA targeting the 16S rRNA gene, the variable-length PCR target gene, and the groESL operon were positive for whole blood specimens obtained from all patients at initial presentation. As most case definitions of HME require a serologic response with compatible illness for a categorization of even probable disease, PCR would have been required to confirm the diagnosis of HME in all nine of these patients without the submission of a convalescent-phase serum sample. These data suggest that many, if not most, cases of HME in patients who present early in the course of the disease may be missed and underscore the limitations of serologically based surveillance systems

Rickettsia parkeri in Amblyomma americanum Ticks, Tennessee and Georgia, USA

To determine the geographic distribution of the newly recognized human pathogen Rickettsia parkeri, we looked for this organism in ticks from Tennessee and Georgia, USA. Using PCR and sequence analysis, we identified R. parkeri in 2 Amblyomma americanum ticks. This rickettsiosis may be underdiagnosed in the eastern United States

A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

Simonsenia aveniformis sp nov (Bacillariophyceae), molecular phylogeny and systematics of the genus, and a new type of canal raphe system

The genus Simonsenia is reviewed and S. aveniformis described as new for science by light and electron microscopy. The new species originated from estuarine environments in southern Iberia (Atlantic coast) and was isolated into culture. In LM, Simonsenia resembles Nitzschia, with bridges (fibulae) beneath the raphe, which is marginal. It is only electron microscope (EM) examination that reveals the true structure of the raphe system, which consists of a raphe canal raised on a keel (wing), supported by rib like braces (fenestral bars) and tube-like portulae; between the portulae the keel is perforated by open windows (fenestrae). Based on the presence of portulae and a fenestrated keel, Simonsenia has been proposed to be intermediate between Bacillariaceae and Surirellaceae. However, an rbcL phylogeny revealed that Simonsenia belongs firmly in the Bacillariaceae, with which it shares a similar chloroplast arrangement, rather than in the Surirellaceae. Lack of homology between the surirelloid and simonsenioid keels is reflected in subtle differences in the morphology and ontogeny of the portulae and fenestrae. The diversity of Simonsenia has probably been underestimated, particularly in the marine environment.Polish National Science Centre in Cracow within the Maestro program [N 2012/04/A/ST10/00544]; Sciences and Technologies Foundation-FCT (Portugal) [SFRH/BD/62405/2009]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Blood Meal Analysis to Identify Reservoir Hosts for Amblyomma americanum Ticks

Blood meal analysis identified white-tailed deer as hosts for ticks that carry zoonotic pathogens

Engineering the Redox Potential over a Wide Range within a New Class of FeS Proteins

Abstract: MitoNEET is a newly discovered mitochondrial protein and a target of the TZD class of antidiabetes drugs. MitoNEET is homodimeric with each protomer binding a [2Fe-2S] center through a rare 3-Cys and 1-His coordination geometry. Both the fold and the coordination of the [2Fe-2S] centers suggest that it could have novel properties compared to other known [2Fe-2S] proteins. We tested the robustness of mitoNEET to mutation and the range over which the redox potential (EM) could be tuned. We found that the protein could tolerate an array of mutations that modified the EM of the [2Fe-2S] center over a range of ∼700 mV, which is the largest EM range engineered in an FeS protein and, importantly, spans the cellular redox range (+200 to-300 mV). These properties make mitoNEET potentially useful for both physiological studies and industrial applications as a stable, water-soluble, redox agent

The Eco-Epidemiology of Pacific Coast Tick Fever in California

Rickettsia philipii (type strain “Rickettsia 364D”), the etiologic agent of Pacific Coast tick fever (PCTF), is transmitted to people by the Pacific Coast tick, Dermacentor occidentalis. Following the first confirmed human case of PCTF in 2008, 13 additional human cases have been reported in California, more than half of which were pediatric cases. The most common features of PCTF are the presence of at least one necrotic lesion known as an eschar (100%), fever (85%), and headache (79%); four case-patients required hospitalization and four had multiple eschars. Findings presented here implicate the nymphal or larval stages of D. occidentalis as the primary vectors of R. philipii to people. Peak transmission risk from ticks to people occurs in late summer. Rickettsia philipii DNA was detected in D. occidentalis ticks from 15 of 37 California counties. Similarly, non-pathogenic Rickettsia rhipicephali DNA was detected in D. occidentalis in 29 of 38 counties with an average prevalence of 12.0% in adult ticks. In total, 5,601 ticks tested from 2009 through 2015 yielded an overall R. philipii infection prevalence of 2.1% in adults, 0.9% in nymphs and a minimum infection prevalence of 0.4% in larval pools. Although most human cases of PCTF have been reported from northern California, acarological surveillance suggests that R. philipii may occur throughout the distribution range of D. occidentalis