Offenders' Crime Narratives across Different Types of Crimes

The current study explores the roles offenders see themselves playing during an offence and their relationship to different crime types. One hundred and twenty incarcerated offenders indicated the narrative roles they acted out whilst committing a specific crime they remembered well. The data were subjected to Smallest Space Analysis (SSA) and four themes were identified: Hero, Professional, Revenger and Victim in line with the recent theoretical framework posited for Narrative Offence Roles (Youngs & Canter, 2012). Further analysis showed that different subsets of crimes were more like to be associated with different narrative offence roles. Hero and Professional were found to be associated with property offences (theft, burglary and shoplifting), drug offences and robbery and Revenger and Victim were found to be associated with violence, sexual offences and murder. The theoretical implications for understanding crime on the basis of offenders' narrative roles as well as practical implications are discussed

Effectiveness of a quality improvement collaborative in reducing time to surgery for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy.

Background:Acute gallstone disease is a high-volume emergency general surgery presentation with wide variations in the quality of care provided across the UK. This controlled cohort evaluation assessed whether participation in a quality improvement collaborative approach reduced time to surgery for patients with acute gallstone disease to fewer than 8 days from presentation, in line with national guidance. Methods:Patients admitted to hospital with acute biliary conditions in England and Wales between 1 April 2014 and 31 December 2017 were identified from Hospital Episode Statistics data. Time series of quarterly activity were produced for the Cholecystectomy Quality Improvement Collaborative (Chole-QuIC) and all other acute National Health Service hospitals (control group). A negative binomial regression model was used to compare the proportion of patients having surgery within 8 days in the baseline and intervention periods. Results:Of 13 sites invited to join Chole-QuIC, 12 participated throughout the collaborative, which ran from October 2016 to January 2018. Of 7944 admissions, 1160 patients had a cholecystectomy within 8 days of admission, a significant improvement (P < 0·050) from baseline performance. This represented a relative change of 1·56 (95 per cent c.i. 1·38 to 1·75), compared with 1·08 for the control group. At the individual site level, eight of the 12 Chole-QuIC sites showed a significant improvement (P < 0·050), with four sites increasing their 8-day surgery rate to over 20 per cent of all emergency admissions, well above the mean of 15·3 per cent for control hospitals. Conclusion:A surgeon-led quality improvement collaborative approach improved care for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy

PAUSED for thought? Using verbal protocol analysis to understand the situational and temporal cues in the decision-making of residential burglars

Using verbal protocol analysis (VPA) alongside semi-structured interviews, this research aimed to explicate the situational dynamics that inform the decision-making and target selection of residential burglars. Focusing on the VPA method, novel to criminological research, the paper considers the contribution of this empirical approach for studying the decision-making of offenders in situ. The findings reveal a series of cues, encapsulated in the ‘PAUSED’ model, that are drawn upon by residential burglars to assess the suitability of a target; determining whether it is profitable, accessible, uninterruptible, surveillable, escapable and/or dishonourable. The PAUSED model is unpacked to articulate a collection of visual stimuli that serve to disrupt and suspend the otherwise rapid flow of target appraisal. Discussion of the strengths and limitations of the VPA method, and how it can compliment other approaches to understanding the decision-making of residential burglars, is provided

Fullerene‐like structures of Cretaceous crinoids reveal topologically limited skeletal possibilities

There are few cases where numbers or types of possible phenotypes are known, although vast state spaces have been postulated. Rarely applied in this context, graph theory and topology enable enumeration of possible phenotypes and evolutionary transitions. Here, we generate polyhedral calyx graphs for the Late Cretaceous, stemless crinoids Marsupites testudinarius and Uintacrinus socialis (Uintacrinoidea Zittel) revealing structural similarities to carbon fullerene and fulleroid molecules (respectively). The U. socialis calyx incorporates numerous plates (e.g. graph vertices |V| ≥ 197), which are small, light, low‐density and have four to eight sides. Therefore, the corresponding number of possible plate arrangements (number of polyhedral graphs) is large (≫1 × 1014). Graph vertices representing plates with sides >6 introduce negative Gaussian curvature (surface saddle points) and topological instability, increasing buckling risk. However, observed numbers of vertices for Uintacrinus do not allow more stable pentaradial configurations. In contrast, the Marsupites calyx dual graph has 17 faces that are pentagonal or hexagonal. Therefore, it is structurally identical to a carbon fullerene, specifically C30‐D5h. Corresponding graph restrictions result in constraint to only three structural options (fullerene structures C30‐C2v 1, C30‐C2v 2 and C30‐D5h). Further restriction to pentaradial symmetry allows only one possibility: the Marsupites phenotype. This robust, stable topology is consistent with adaptation to predation pressures of the Mesozoic marine revolution. Consequently, the most plausible evolutionary pathway between unitacrinoid phenotypes was a mixed heterochronic trade‐off to fewer, larger calyx plates. Therefore, topological limitations radically constrained uintacrinoid skeletal possibilities but thereby aided evolution of a novel adaptive phenotype

Mass Treatment with Azithromycin for Trachoma Control: Participation Clusters in Households

Trachoma, an infectious disease, continues to cause blindness. A great deal of the trachoma burden is concentrated in developing countries. The World Health Organization recommends mass treatment for entire communities in trachoma-endemic regions. In 32 Tanzanian and 48 Gambian communities with trachoma, mass treatment was directly observed following a census. Community coverage was mostly greater than 80%. Larger-than-expected proportions of households where all children were treated and where none of the children were treated were found in each country. Household clustering of treatment was higher in Tanzania compared to The Gambia. However, children who were not treated were not more likely to be infected compared to children who were treated. We found that treatment and non-treatment within communities does not occur at random but rather clusters within households. These findings impact the design of future coverage surveys and suggest that further research evaluate factors that are associated with familial non-compliance

Neptune to the Common-wealth of England (1652): the republican Britannia and the continuity of interests

In the seventeenth century, John Kerrigan reminds us, “models of empire did not always turn on monarchy”. In this essay, I trace a vision of “Neptune’s empire” shared by royalists and republicans, binding English national interest to British overseas expansion. I take as my text a poem entitled “Neptune to the Common-wealth of England”, prefixed to Marchamont Nedham’s 1652 English translation of Mare Clausum (1635), John Selden’s response to Mare Liberum (1609) by Hugo Grotius. This minor work is read alongside some equally obscure and more familiar texts in order to point up the ways in which it speaks to persistent cultural and political interests. I trace the afterlife of this verse, its critical reception and its unique status as a fragment that exemplifies the crossover between colonial republic and imperial monarchy at a crucial moment in British history, a moment that, with Brexit, remains resonant

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify

Unveiling relationships between crime and property in England and Wales via density scale-adjusted metrics and network tools

Scale-adjusted metrics (SAMs) are a significant achievement of the urban scaling hypothesis. SAMs remove the inherent biases of per capita measures computed in the absence of isometric allometries. However, this approach is limited to urban areas, while a large portion of the world’s population still lives outside cities and rural areas dominate land use worldwide. Here, we extend the concept of SAMs to population density scale-adjusted metrics (DSAMs) to reveal relationships among different types of crime and property metrics. Our approach allows all human environments to be considered, avoids problems in the definition of urban areas, and accounts for the heterogeneity of population distributions within urban regions. By combining DSAMs, cross-correlation, and complex network analysis, we find that crime and property types have intricate and hierarchically organized relationships leading to some striking conclusions. Drugs and burglary had uncorrelated DSAMs and, to the extent property transaction values are indicators of affluence, twelve out of fourteen crime metrics showed no evidence of specifically targeting affluence. Burglary and robbery were the most connected in our network analysis and the modular structures suggest an alternative to "zero-tolerance" policies by unveiling the crime and/or property types most likely to affect each other