Competition on fast track: an analysis of the first competitive market for HSR services

This paper gives an overview of the dual effects of the opening, in Italy, of the new HSR line with a single operator (between 2005-2012) and the effects of a new operator entering the HSR market (2012-onward), on supply, demand and prices, thus inferring the effects of competition in this typically monopolistic market. The analyses are based on source data (laws and regulations, business plans, timetables, prices) as well as ad hoc extensive surveys, such as on-board counts on the HSR and intercity trains, retrospect surveys, and RP/SP interviews. In addition, an integrated modeling system has been developed to forecast the effects of competing titnetables/services/prices in terms of different HSR operators, competing modes (air/auto/railways), services (1st class/2nd class, etc.) and newly generated trips

An elastic demand schedule-based multimodal assignment model for the simulation of high speed rail (HSR) systems

HSR represents the future of medium-haul intercity transport. In fact, a number of HSR projects are being developed all over the world despite the financial and economic crisis. Such large investments require reliable demand forecasting models to develop solid business plans aiming at optimizing the fares structure and the timetables (operational level) and, on the other hand, at exploring opportunities for new businesses in the long period (strategic level). In this paper we present a model system developed to forecast the national passenger demand for different macroeconomic, transport supply, and HSR market scenarios. The core of the model is based on the simulation of the competition between transportation modes (i.e. air, auto, rail), railways services (intercity vs. High Speed Rail) and HSR operators using an explicit representation of the timetables of all competing modes\services (schedule-based assignment). This requires, in turn, a diachronic network representation of the transport supply for scheduled services and a nested logit model of mode, service, operator, and run choice. To authors’ knowledge this represents the first case of elastic demand, schedule-based assignment model at national scale to forecast HSR demand. The overall modeling framework has been calibrated based on extensive traffic counts and mixed RP-SP interviews gathered between 2009 and 2011, on the Italian multimodal transportation system. The results of the models estimation are presented, and, some applications to test HSR service options (i.e. fares and timetable) of a new operator entering the HSR market and competing with the national incumbent are discussed

Experimental and numerical research activity on a packed bed TES system

This paper presents the results of experimental and numerical research activities on a packed bed sensible thermal energy storage (TES) system. The TES consists of a cylindrical steel tank filled with small alumina beads and crossed by air used as the heat transfer fluid. Experimental tests were carried out hile varying some operating parameters such as the mass flow rate, the inlet–outlet temperature thresholds and the aspect ratio (length over diameter). Numerical simulations were carried out using a one-dimensional model, specifically developed in the Matlab-Simulink environment and a 2D axisymmetric model based on the ANSYS-Fluent platform. Both models are based on a two-equation transient approach to calculate fluid and solid phase temperatures. Thermodynamic properties were considered to be temperature-dependent and, in the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model, variable porosity of the bed in the radial direction, thermal losses and the effective conductivity of the alumina beads were also considered. The simulation results of both models were compared to the experimental ones, showing good agreement. The one-dimensional model has the advantage of predicting the axial temperature distribution with a very low computational cost, but it does not allow calculation of the correct energy stored when the temperature distribution is strongly influenced by the wall. To overcome this problem a 2D CFD model was used in this work

Transport Modelling During Preparation of General Plans in Big Cities: Reasons and Challenges

Rapidly growing mobility of people in European cities attaches greater importance to the sustainable developmentconcept. The dynamics of European cities are however different. Cites such as Lithuanian, Slovakian and Polishones will rapidly increase traffic flows and car ownership at fast pace. Also in most of Western Europe, even if at lowerrates, private mobility is increasing. In some cities, however, car use and car ownership are finally decreasing, alsothanks to policies implemented. Of course, an increase of traffic flows poses problems in terms of street space, pollutionand liveability of cities. Sustainable integration of all kinds of transport into the urban development process is one ofthe most effective actions in the hands of city planners. The coordination between the planning of residential and businessdevelopment areas and the expansion of public transport and its hierarchical integration is however a difficult butnecessary exercise. Transport modelling tools, in particular, need important advancements to integrate transport andland use in simulations. This article analyses the main challenges in the use of transport models to support the constructionof city plans by means of two case studies of Milan and Vilnius. The analysis deals both with traditional aspects,such as the proper simulation of multimodal choices, the level of detail of zoning, the issues associated to the simulationof traffic management policies. Then, we will focus on two aspects still open: the integration of transport modelling andeconomic assessment or ranking of actions, and the inclusion of land use changes in the modelling

Estimation of annual average daily traffic with optimal adjustment factors

This study aimed to estimate the annual average daily traffic in inter-urban networks determining the best correlation (affinity) between the short period traffic counts and permanent traffic counters. A bi-level optimisation problem is proposed in which an agent in an upper level prefixes the affinities between short period traffic counts and permanent traffic counters stations and looks to minimise the annual average daily traffic calculation error while, in a lower level, an origin–destination (O–D) trip matrix estimation problem from traffic counts is solved. The proposed model is tested over the well-known Sioux-Falls network and applied to a real case of Cantabria (Spain) regional road network. The importance of determining appropriate affinity and the effect of localisation of permanent traffic counters stations are discussed

Short-Term prediction of vehicle occupancy in Advanced Public Transportation Information Systems (APTIS)

Most ITS applications to transit systems are oriented to the efficient management of Public Transportation (PT) operator’s resources, that is crew and fleet of vehicles. However, the potential of ITS application to transit system goes further than the efficient management of the fleet of vehicles. In fact, information on the real-time actual network state, if communicated to travelers, may be an effective tool for improving quality and effectiveness of services and, hence, for diverting people to PT modes. In this paper, we focus on Advanced Public Transportation Information System (APTIS) deploying shared en-route descriptive information. The case study of the city of Naples (Italy) is analyzed. Here PT travelers have reacted positively to being provided information on waiting time at stops and have expressed great interest in receiving additional information such as passenger occupancy of future vehicles. The latter information can be efficiently obtained by means of a modeling framework simulating travelers path choice and the way in which they propagate over the network, as well as Origin-Destination (OD) travel demand pattern. Such a modeling framework is described in this paper. This is based on the schedule based approach and simulates within-day dynamics in transit networks, on both the demand and supply side. Preliminary applications to a small-scale example network are also presented in the paper

A General Stochastic Process for Day-to-Day Dynamic Traffic Assignment: Formulation, Asymptotic Behaviour, and Stability Analysis

This paper presents a general modelling approach to day-to-day dynamic assignment to a congested network through discrete-time stochastic and deterministic process models including an explicit modelling of users’ habit as a part of route choice behaviour, through an exponential smoothing filter, and of their memory of network conditions on past days, through a moving average or an exponentially smoothing filter. An asymptotic analysis of the mean process is carried out to provide a better insight. Results of such analyses are also used for deriving conditions, about values of the system parameters, assuring that the mean process is dissipative and/or converges to some kind of attractor. Numerical small examples are also provided in order to illustrate the theoretical results obtained

Doubly dynamic traffic assignment: simulation modelling framework and experimental results

Properties of a doubly dynamic simulation assignment model were investigated. The model involves specifying a day-to-day route choice model as a discrete time stochastic process, combining a between-day driver learning and adjusting model with a continuous-time, within-day dynamic network loading. Such a simulation model may be regarded as the realization of a stochastic process, which under certain mild conditions admits a unique stationary probability distribution (i.e., an invariant probability distribution over time of network flows and travel times). Such a stationary state of the stochastic process is of interest to transport modelers, as one can then describe the stochastic process by its moments such as the means, variances, and covariances of the flow and travel time profiles. The results of a simulation experiment are reported in which the process of individual drivers' day-to-day route choices are based on the aggregate learning of the experienced within-day route costs by all drivers departing in the same period. Experimental results of the stationarity of the stochastic process are discussed, along with an analysis of the sensitivity of autocorrelations of the route flows to the route choice model parameters. The results illustrate the consistency of the link flow model with properties such as first in-first out, and a simple network is used to illustrate the properties

FOLFIRINOX after first-line gemcitabine-based chemotherapy in advanced pancreatic cancer: a retrospective comparison with FOLFOX and FOLFIRI schedules

Background: Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death. In cases with metastasis, the combination of 5-fluorouracil, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) or gemcitabine-based chemotherapy regimens are considered the standard of care. However, the optimal sequence of these regimens is unclear. Methods: This retrospective study initially evaluated 186 patients with locally advanced/metastatic pancreatic cancer at three Italian institutions between February 2013 and October 2019. All patients had progressed after receiving gemcitabine-based first-line chemotherapy and were subsequently offered second-line FOLFIRINOX, FOLFOX-6, or FOLFIRI treatment. This study evaluated progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival from the start of second-line treatment (OS2), overall survival from the start of first-line treatment (OS1), and safety outcomes. Results: A total of 77 patients received ⩾4 cycles of second-line chemotherapy and were considered eligible: 15 patients received FOLFIRINOX, 32 patients received FOLFOX-6, and 30 patients received FOLFIRI. The FOLFIRINOX group had median PFS of 26.29 weeks and median OS2 of 47.86 weeks, while the FOLFIRI group had median PFS of 10.57 weeks and median OS2 of 25.00 weeks (p = 0.038). No significant differences were observed between the FOLFIRINOX and FOLFOX-6 groups in terms of PFS (26.29 weeks versus 23.07 weeks) or OS2 (47.86 weeks versus 42.00 weeks). The most common grade 3–4 toxicities were anemia, neutropenia, and thrombocytopenia, which occurred more frequently in the FOLFIRINOX and FOLFOX-6 groups. Conclusion: Relative to the FOLFIRI regimen, the FOLFIRINOX regimen had a favorable toxicity profile and better survival outcomes. No significant differences were observed relative to the FOLFOX-6 regimen