A critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach: irrigation reservoir planning under climate change

In the UK, there is a growing interest in constructing on-farm irrigation reservoirs, however deciding the optimum reservoir capacity is not simple. There are two distinct approaches to generating the future daily weather datasets needed to calculate future irrigation need. The change factor approach perturbs the observed record using monthly change factors derived from downscaled climate models. This assumes that whilst the climate changes, the day-to-day climate variability itself is stationary. Problems may arise where the instrumental record is insufficient or particularly suspect. Alternatively, probabilistic weather generators can be used to identify options which are considered more robust to climate change uncertainty because they consider non-stationary climate variability. This paper explores the difference between using the change factor approach and a probabilistic weather generator for informing farm reservoir design at three sites in the UK. Decision outcomes obtained using the current normal practice of 80% probability of non-exceedance rule and simple economic optimisations are also compared. Decision outcomes obtained using the change factor approach and probabilistic weather generators are significantly different; whether these differences translate to real-world differences is discussed. This study also found that using the 80% probability of non-exceedance rule could potentially result in maladaptation

Irrigation demand modelling using the UKCP09 weather generator: lessons learned

The determination of irrigation demand is typically based on crop modelling using a long historic record of local daily weather data. However, there are rarely adequate weather station records near to given sites; often any local records cover a limited number of years, are incomplete, costly or are of poor quality. This paper examines whether version 1 of the UKCP09 weather generator can provide a simpler and effective method of calculating irrigation demand with sufficient accuracy for regulatory and design purposes. The irrigation demands at seven sites distributed around England were modelled using the UKCP09 baseline climatology and compared with results modelled using daily observed weather records. For the design dry year used for irrigation planning, the weather generator replicated the observed conditions with reasonable accuracy. The weather generator was however less successful at replicating extreme dry years. These results are encouraging but also provide a note of caution for the use of these generated datasets for studying current irrigation demand and by implication for modelling future needs under climate change. The study also demonstrated a simple sub-sampling approach for reducing the processing demands if using the dataset in more complex models, though this would not remove any underlying error

Assessing spectral similarities between rainfed and irrigated croplands in a humid environment for irrigated land mapping

Deriving accurate spatial assessments of the distribution of irrigated crops has become more important in recent years for water resource planning, particularly where irrigation water resources are constrained. However, this is easier in arid climates than in humid areas such as eastern England. The challenges in using alternative vegetation indices derived from remote sensing to discriminate between irrigated and rainfed crops in a humid climate are described, focusing on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), the most important irrigated crop in England. Three techniques were evaluated: (a) temporal profile comparisons using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); (b) cluster analysis combining the NDVI and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI); and (c) identifying differences in chlorophyll content using green and near infrared bands. However, the study confirmed that the spectral signatures of irrigated and rainfed potato in England during a typical summer are very similar, presumably due to frequent rainfall events which reduce differences in water stress and chlorophyll content. The implications for using remote sensing to estimate irrigated areas in humid climates are discussed

Alien Registration- Weatherhead, Catherin E. (Limestone, Aroostook County)

https://digitalmaine.com/alien_docs/35214/thumbnail.jp

The economics of irrigating wheat in a humid climate - A study in the East of England

In the UK, wheat is the most important cultivated cereal, grown extensively as a rainfed crop. Irrigation of wheat has previously been considered uneconomic, but increases in world wheat prices and recent droughts have led to some farmers revising their views. Widespread adoption of wheat irrigation would have major implications for wheat production, the irrigation industry and water resources in regions that are already water scarce. This study investigated the financial viability of irrigating winter wheat grown on a sandy loam soil in the East of England. Long-term climate data (1961–2011) for Silsoe (Bedfordshire) was used to drive a biophysical crop model to assess irrigation water requirements and yield response. Modelling assumed a typical irrigation schedule to maximise yield and quality, and average reported wheat prices for 2007 to 2012. Irrigation costs were calculated assuming an overhead mobile hosereel–raingun system applying river water, abstracted either in summer and used directly, or abstracted in winter and stored in an on-farm reservoir. The results suggest that the yield benefit would justify supplemental irrigation by farmers who have unused irrigation equipment and unused summer water, although irrigation of higher-value field vegetable crops later in the season would normally take precedence – the Added Value of Water (AVW) usefully applied to milling winter wheat under these conditions ranged between 0.24 and 0.32 £ m−3. Investment in new irrigation schemes could also be marginally viable if unused summer river water was available for direct abstraction (AVW = 0.08 £ m−3). Investments in new farm reservoirs for irrigating wheat are currently not profitable (AVW = –0.23 £ m−3). Sensitivity analysis suggests that in the longer term, the expected increase in world wheat prices and the impacts of climate change are likely to make the financial benefits stronger, particularly in the drier catchments further east and on low moisture retentive soils, but competing demands for water would still make extensive wheat irrigation unlikely

Power-Sharing in the English Lowlands? The Political Economy of Farmer Participation and Cooperation in Water Governance

Participatory and cooperative forms of water governance have become regular features of government discourse and stated policy objectives in England. We consider this aspiration from the perspective of farmers in the English lowlands, by analysing the current power dynamic that exists among these farmers, and between them and the key stakeholders involved in water management. To do this we undertake a political economy analysis that places lowland farming and water governance within the evolution of historical processes that, over time, have influenced the ability of farmers to participate in the governance of their water environment. These historical developments are interpreted through the lens of the Power Cube, an analytical tool for thinking about the interplay between different forms of power operating in different types of spaces and at different levels of governance. Our findings reveal that, despite there being a number of structural changes that provide lowland farmers with the opportunity to participate and cooperate in water governance, three distinct barriers stand in the way. These relate to the power 'within' these farmers, which continues to align with a productivist ideology founded on individualism and competition, often at the expense of the environment; the power that government water managers still exercise 'over' farmers instead of 'with' them; and the relationship between lowland farming and environmental interests, where historically the two sides’ power 'to' act has been diametrically opposed. The findings point to the importance of developing suitable programmes designed to support and incentivize farmer participation and cooperation

Competition, Conflict, and Compromise: Three Discourses Used by Irrigators in England and Their Implications for the CoManagement of Water Resources

In this paper we use discourse analysis to explore the current dynamic that exists among farmer irrigators in England, and between irrigators and water managers in order to understand the potential for co-management to develop. To do this we employ two concepts from the field of critical discursive psychology – 'interpretive repertoires' and 'subject positions' – and apply them to a qualitative analysis of 20 interviews with farmers who are members of irrigator groups and two focus group discussions with farmers thinking about forming an irrigator group. The findings reveal that the participants drew upon three interpretive repertoires when talking about the relationship between farming and water resources management, namely the 'competition', 'conflict', and 'compromise' repertoires, with the latter being the least dominant. We situate the repertoires in their wider historical context to reveal the ideological forces at play, and conclude that the relative dominance of the competition and conflict repertoires serve as a barrier to co-management. In particular, this is because they engender low levels of trust and reinforce a power dynamic that favours individualism and opposition. At the same time, the less-dominant compromise repertoire challenges the power of the other two, providing some hope of achieving more participatory forms of water resources management in the future. To this end, we discuss how the restructuring of current agri-environment schemes and government water programmes may be used to promote the adoption and institutionalisation of the compromise repertoire in order to facilitate the emergence of co-management

Climate change impacts on water for irrigated horticulture in the Vale of Evesham. Final Report

This project has undertaken a scoping review and assessment of the impacts of climate change on irrigated horticulture in the Vale of Evesham, an area of intense irrigated production located within the Environment Agency’s Warwickshire Avon CAMS Catchment. The research was based on a combination of methodologies including desk-based review of published and grey literature, computer agroclimatic and water balance modelling, GIS mapping, meetings with key informants and a stakeholder workshop. Future climate datasets were derived from the latest UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKICIP02) climatology, using selected emission scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. These scenarios were then used to model and map the future agroclimatic conditions under which agriculture might operate and the consequent impacts on irrigation need (depths of water applied) and volumetric demand. This was complimented by a postal survey to abstractors and a stakeholder workshop, to identify, review and assess farmer adaptation options and responses. The key findings arising from the research, implications for water resource management and recommendations for further work are summarised below. Using a geographical information system (GIS), a series of agroclimate maps have been produced, for the baseline and selected UKCIP02 scenario. The maps show major changes in agroclimate within the catchment over the next 50 years. The driest agroclimate zones are currently located around Worcester, Evesham, Tewkesbury and Gloucester, corresponding to areas where horticultural production and irrigation demand are most concentrated. By the 2020s, all agroclimate zones are predicted to increase in aridity. By the 2050s the entire catchment is predicted to have a drier agroclimate than is currently experienced anywhere in the driest parts of the catchment. This will have major impacts on the pattern of land use and irrigation water demand. Cont/d

Critical issues in ionospheric data quality and implications for scientific studies

Ionospheric data are valuable records of the behavior of the ionosphere, solar activity, and the entire Sun-Earth system. The data are critical for both societally important services and scientific investigations of upper atmospheric variability. This work investigates some of the difficulties and pitfalls in maintaining long-term records of geophysical measurements. This investigation focuses on the ionospheric parameters contained in the historical data sets within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Geophysical Data Center and Space Physics Interactive Data Resource databases. These archives include data from approximately 100 ionosonde stations worldwide, beginning in the early 1940s. Our study focuses on the quality and consistency of ionosonde data accessible via the primary Space Physics Interactive Data Resource node located within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Geophysical Data Center and the World Data Center for Solar-Terrestrial Physics located in Boulder, Colorado. We find that, although the Space Physics Interactive Data Resource archives contained an impressive amount of high-quality data, specific problems existed involving missing and noncontiguous data sets, long-term variations or changes in methodologies and analysis procedures used, and incomplete documentation. The important lessons learned from this investigation are that the data incorporated into an archive must have clear traceability back to the primary source, including scientific validation by the contributors, and that the historical records must have associated metadata that describe relevant nuances in the observations. Although this report only focuses on historical ionosonde data in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration databases, we feel that these findings have general applicability to environmental scientists interested in using long-term geophysical data sets for climate and global change research.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

USE OF INHALANT ANESTHETICS IN THREE SNAKE SPECIES

Different snake species respond differently to various anesthetic agents. Hence, an anesthetic procedure developed for one species cannot necessarily be safely transferred to another species. The goal of this paper is to summarize our experience using inhalant anesthetics on three snake species, including both procedures that were successful and those we found to be less satisfactory. We found isoflurane delivered with a precision vaporizer to be the best agent to anesthetize black rat snakes (Elaphe o. obsoleta). Sex and mass did not seem to affect induction times in black rat snakes, but larger female rat snakes recovered faster from anesthesia than smaller females. Halothane delivered in the open method provided consistent anesthesia in northern water snakes (Nerodia s. sipedon), although it caused some mortality and should not be used on debilitated patients. Halothane delivered with a precision vaporizer may be used to anesthetize eastern massasauga rattlesnakes (Sistrurus c. catenatus). However, care must be taken to prevent mortality resulting from anesthetic overdose. Sex and mass had no effect on induction and recovery times in the rattlesnakes, but stressed animals require longer induction and recovery times