Testing predictors of eruptivity using parametric flux emergence simulations

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the most energetic events in the solar system, impacting the near-Earth environment. Flare productivity is empirically known to be correlated with the size and complexity of active regions. Several indicators, based on magnetic-field data from active regions, have been tested for flare forecasting in recent years. None of these indicators, or combinations thereof, have yet demonstrated an unambiguous eruption or flare criterion. Furthermore, numerical simulations have been only barely used to test the predictability of these parameters. In this context, we used the 3D parametric MHD numerical simulations of the self-consistent formation of the flux emergence of a twisted flux tube, inducing the formation of stable and unstable magnetic flux ropes of Leake (2013, 2014). We use these numerical simulations to investigate the eruptive signatures observable in various magnetic scalar parameters and provide highlights on data analysis processing. Time series of 2D photospheric-like magnetograms are used from parametric simulations of stable and unstable flux emergence, to compute a list of about 100 different indicators. This list includes parameters previously used for operational forecasting, physical parameters used for the first time, as well as new quantities specifically developed for this purpose. Our results indicate that only parameters measuring the total non-potentiality of active regions associated with magnetic inversion line properties, such as the Falconer parameters $L_{ss}$, $WL_{ss}$, $L_{sg}$ and $WL_{sg}$, as well as the new current integral $WL_{sc}$ and length $L_{sc}$ parameters, present a significant ability to distinguish the eruptive cases of the model from the non-eruptive cases, possibly indicating that they are promising flare and eruption predictors.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in Space Weather and Space Climate on June, 8t

Turbulent pitch-angle scattering and diffusive transport of hard-X-ray producing electrons in flaring coronal loops

Recent observations from {\em RHESSI} have revealed that the number of non-thermal electrons in the coronal part of a flaring loop can exceed the number of electrons required to explain the hard X-ray-emitting footpoints of the same flaring loop. Such sources cannot, therefore, be interpreted on the basis of the standard collisional transport model, in which electrons stream along the loop while losing their energy through collisions with the ambient plasma; additional physical processes, to either trap or scatter the energetic electrons, are required. Motivated by this and other observations that suggest that high energy electrons are confined to the coronal region of the source, we consider turbulent pitch angle scattering of fast electrons off low frequency magnetic fluctuations as a confinement mechanism, modeled as a spatial diffusion parallel to the mean magnetic field. In general, turbulent scattering leads to a reduction of the collisional stopping distance of non-thermal electrons along the loop and hence to an enhancement of the coronal HXR source relative to the footpoints. The variation of source size $L$ with electron energy $E$ becomes weaker than the quadratic behavior pertinent to collisional transport, with the slope of $L(E)$ depending directly on the mean free path $\lambda$ again pitch angle scattering. Comparing the predictions of the model with observations, we find that $\lambda \sim$$(10^8-10^9)$ cm for $\sim30$ keV, less than the length of a typical flaring loop and smaller than, or comparable to, the size of the electron acceleration region.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journa

Loss-cone instability modulation due to a magnetohydrodynamic sausage mode oscillation in the solar corona

Solar flares often involve the acceleration of particles to relativistic energies and the generation of high-intensity bursts of radio emission. In some cases, the radio bursts can show periodic or quasiperiodic intensity pulsations. However, precisely how these pulsations are generated is still subject to debate. Prominent theories employ mechanisms such as periodic magnetic reconnection, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) oscillations, or some combination of both. Here we report on high-cadence (0.25 s) radio imaging of a 228 MHz radio source pulsating with a period of 2.3 s during a solar flare on 2014-April-18. The pulsating source is due to an MHD sausage mode oscillation periodically triggering electron acceleration in the corona. The periodic electron acceleration results in the modulation of a loss-cone instability, ultimately resulting in pulsating plasma emission. The results show that a complex combination of MHD oscillations and plasma instability modulation can lead to pulsating radio emission in astrophysical environments.Peer reviewe

Submillimeter and X-ray observations of an X Class flare

The GOES X1.5 class flare that occurred on August 30,2002 at 1327:30 UT is one of the few events detected so far at submillimeter wavelengths. We present a detailed analysis of this flare combining radio observations from 1.5 to 212 GHz (an upper limit of the flux is also provided at 405 GHz) and X-ray. Although the observations of radio emission up to 212 GHz indicates that relativistic electrons with energies of a few MeV were accelerated, no significant hard X-ray emission was detected by RHESSI above ~ 250 keV. Images at 12--20 and 50--100 keV reveal a very compact, but resolved, source of about ~ 10" x 10". EUV TRACE images show a multi-kernel structure suggesting a complex (multipolar) magnetic topology. During the peak time the radio spectrum shows an extended flatness from ~ 7 to 35 GHz. Modeling the optically thin part of the radio spectrum as gyrosynchrotron emission we obtained the electron spectrum (spectral index delta, instantaneous number of emitting electrons). It is shown that in order to keep the expected X-ray emission from the same emitting electrons below the RHESSI background at 250 keV, a magnetic field above 500 G is necessary. On the other hand, the electron spectrum deduced from radio observations >= 50 GHz is harder than that deduced from ~ 70 - 250 keV X-ray data, meaning that there must exist a breaking energy around a few hundred keV. During the decay of the impulsive phase, a hardening of the X-ray spectrum is observed which is interpreted as a hardening of the electron distribution spectrum produced by the diffusion due to Coulomb collisions of the trapped electrons in a medium with an electron density of n_e ~ 3E10 - 5E10 cm-3.Comment: Accpeted in Astronomy & Astrophysics. 9 Pages, 6 Figures ADDED REFERENCE

Divergence between the high rate of p53 mutations in skin carcinomas and the low prevalence of anti-p53 antibodies

Circulating anti-p53 antibodies have been described and used as tumoural markers in patients with various cancers and strongly correlate with the p53 mutated status of the tumours. No study has yet looked at the prevalence of such antibodies in skin carcinoma patients although these tumours have been shown to be frequently p53 mutated. Most skin carcinoma can be diagnosed by examination or biopsy, but aggressive, recurrent and/or non-surgical cases' follow up would be helped by a biological marker of residual disease. We performed a prospective study looking at the prevalence of anti-p53 antibodies using an ELISA technique in a series of 105 skin carcinoma patients in comparison with a sex- and age-matched control skin carcinoma-free group (n = 130). Additionally, p53 accumulation was studied by immunohistochemistry to confirm p53 protein altered expression in a sample of tumours. Anti-p53 antibodies were detected in 2.9% of the cases, with a higher prevalence in patients suffering from the more aggressive squamous cell type (SCC) of skin carcinoma (8%) than for the more common and slowly growing basal cell carcinoma type or BCC (1.5%). p53 protein stabilization could be confirmed in 80% of tumours studied by IHC. This low level of anti-p53 antibody detection contrasts with the high rate of p53 mutations reported in these tumours. This observation shows that the anti-p53 humoral response is a complex and tissue-specific mechanism. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Exploring impulsive solar magnetic energy release and particle acceleration with focused hard X-ray imaging spectroscopy

How impulsive magnetic energy release leads to solar eruptions and how those eruptions are energized and evolve are vital unsolved problems in Heliophysics. The standard model for solar eruptions summarizes our current understanding of these events. Magnetic energy in the corona is released through drastic restructuring of the magnetic field via reconnection. Electrons and ions are then accelerated by poorly understood processes. Theories include contracting loops, merging magnetic islands, stochastic acceleration, and turbulence at shocks, among others. Although this basic model is well established, the fundamental physics is poorly understood. HXR observations using grazing-incidence focusing optics can now probe all of the key regions of the standard model. These include two above-the-looptop (ALT) sources which bookend the reconnection region and are likely the sites of particle acceleration and direct heating. The science achievable by a direct HXR imaging instrument can be summarized by the following science questions and objectives which are some of the most outstanding issues in solar physics (1) How are particles accelerated at the Sun? (1a) Where are electrons accelerated and on what time scales? (1b) What fraction of electrons is accelerated out of the ambient medium? (2) How does magnetic energy release on the Sun lead to flares and eruptions? A Focusing Optics X-ray Solar Imager (FOXSI) instrument, which can be built now using proven technology and at modest cost, would enable revolutionary advancements in our understanding of impulsive magnetic energy release and particle acceleration, a process which is known to occur at the Sun but also throughout the Universe

SEPServer catalogues of solar energetic particle events at 1 AU based on STEREO recordings: 2007–2012

The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) recordings provide an unprecedented opportunity to study the evolution of solar energetic particle (SEP) events from different observation points in the heliosphere, allowing one to identify the effects of the properties of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind structures on the interplanetary transport and acceleration of SEPs. Two catalogues based on STEREO recordings, have been compiled as a part of the SEPServer project, a three-year collaborative effort of eleven European partners funded under the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Union (FP7/SPACE). In particular, two instruments on board STEREO have been used to identify all SEP events observed within the descending phase of solar cycle 23 and the rising phase of solar cycle 24 from 2007 to 2012, namely: the Low Energy Telescope (LET) and the Solar Electron Proton Telescope (SEPT). A scan of STEREO/LET protons within the energy range 6–10 MeV has been performed for each of the two STEREO spacecraft. We have tracked all enhancements that have been observed above the background level of this particular channel and cross-checked with available lists of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), stream interaction regions (SIRs), and shocks, as well as with the reported events in literature. Furthermore, parallel scanning of the STEREO near relativistic electrons has been performed in order to pinpoint the presence (or absence) of an electron event in the energy range of 55–85 keV, for all of the aforementioned proton events included in our lists. We provide the onset and peak time as well as the peak value of all events for both protons and electrons, the relevant solar associations in terms of electromagnetic emissions, soft and hard X-rays (SXRs and HXRs). Finally, a subset of events with clear recordings at both STEREO spacecraft is presented together with the parent solar events of these multispacecraft SEP events

Treatment outcome in infant acute lymphoblastic leukemia

peer reviewe

African Challenges to the International Criminal Court: An Example of Populism?

Recent global efforts of the United States and England to withdraw from international institutions, along with recent challenges to human rights courts from Poland and Hungary, have been described as part of a growing global populist backlash against the liberal international order. Several scholars have even identified the recent threat of mass withdrawal of African states from the International Criminal Court (ICC) as part of this global populist backlash. Are the African challenges to the ICC part of a global populist movement developing in Africa? More fundamentally, how are the African challenges to the ICC examples of populism, if at all? In this paper, I show that, while there is considerable overlap between the strategies used by particular African leaders to challenge the ICC and those typically considered populist, as well as a discernible thin populist ideology to sustain them, there is insufficient evidence of a larger anti-ICC populist movement in Africa. Although Africa is not as united against the ICC as the populist narrative suggests, the recent challenges to the Court from Africa pose a significant challenge to the Court, as the institution is still in the early stages of building its legitimacy

Recent Advances in Understanding Particle Acceleration Processes in Solar Flares

We review basic theoretical concepts in particle acceleration, with particular emphasis on processes likely to occur in regions of magnetic reconnection. Several new developments are discussed, including detailed studies of reconnection in three-dimensional magnetic field configurations (e.g., current sheets, collapsing traps, separatrix regions) and stochastic acceleration in a turbulent environment. Fluid, test-particle, and particle-in-cell approaches are used and results compared. While these studies show considerable promise in accounting for the various observational manifestations of solar flares, they are limited by a number of factors, mostly relating to available computational power. Not the least of these issues is the need to explicitly incorporate the electrodynamic feedback of the accelerated particles themselves on the environment in which they are accelerated. A brief prognosis for future advancement is offered.Comment: This is a chapter in a monograph on the physics of solar flares, inspired by RHESSI observations. The individual articles are to appear in Space Science Reviews (2011