Forecasting multivariate volatility in larger dimensions: some practical issues

The importance of covariance modelling has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management and large dimensional multivariate problems are increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating whether simpler moving average based correlation forecasting methods have equal predictive accuracy as their more complex multivariate GARCH counterparts for large dimensional problems. We find simpler forecasting techniques do provide equal (and often superior) predictive accuracy in a minimum variance sense. A portfolio allocation problem is used to compare forecasting methods. The global minimum variance portfolio and Model Confidence Set (Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2003)) are used to compare methods, whilst portfolio weight stability and computational time are also considered.Volatility, multivariate GARCH, portfolio allocation

Effect of Inhaled Xenon on Cerebral White Matter Damage in Comatose Survivors of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Evidence from preclinical models indicates that xenon gas can prevent the development of cerebral damage after acute global hypoxic-ischemic brain injury but, thus far, these putative neuroprotective properties have not been reported in human studies. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of inhaled xenon on ischemic white matter damage assessed with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A randomized single-blind phase 2 clinical drug trial conducted between August 2009 and March 2015 at 2 multipurpose intensive care units in Finland. One hundred ten comatose patients (aged 24-76 years) who had experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were randomized. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly assigned to receive either inhaled xenon combined with hypothermia (33°C) for 24 hours (n = 55 in the xenon group) or hypothermia treatment alone (n = 55 in the control group). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was cerebral white matter damage as evaluated by fractional anisotropy from diffusion tensor MRI scheduled to be performed between 36 and 52 hours after cardiac arrest. Secondary end points included neurological outcome assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (score 0 [no symptoms] through 6 [death]) and mortality at 6 months. RESULTS: Among the 110 randomized patients (mean age, 61.5 years; 80 men [72.7%]), all completed the study. There were MRI data from 97 patients (88.2%) a median of 53 hours (interquartile range [IQR], 47-64 hours) after cardiac arrest. The mean global fractional anisotropy values were 0.433 (SD, 0.028) in the xenon group and 0.419 (SD, 0.033) in the control group. The age-, sex-, and site-adjusted mean global fractional anisotropy value was 3.8% higher (95% CI, 1.1%-6.4%) in the xenon group (adjusted mean difference, 0.016 [95% CI, 0.005-0.027], P = .006). At 6 months, 75 patients (68.2%) were alive. Secondary end points at 6 months did not reveal statistically significant differences between the groups. In ordinal analysis of the modified Rankin Scale, the median (IQR) value was 1 (1-6) in the xenon group and 1 (0-6) in the control group (median difference, 0 [95% CI, 0-0]; P = .68). The 6-month mortality rate was 27.3% (15/55) in the xenon group and 34.5% (19/55) in the control group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.23-1.01]; P = .053). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among comatose survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, inhaled xenon combined with hypothermia compared with hypothermia alone resulted in less white matter damage as measured by fractional anisotropy of diffusion tensor MRI. However, there was no statistically significant difference in neurological outcomes or mortality at 6 months. These preliminary findings require further evaluation in an adequately powered clinical trial designed to assess clinical outcomes associated with inhaled xenon among survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00879892

Conservative Approach to Unilateral Condylar Fracture in a Growing Patient: A 2.5-Year Follow Up

Condylar fractures in children are especially important because of the risk of a mandibular growth-center being affected in the condylar head, which can lead to growth retardation and facial asymmetry. The purpose of this article is to follow up the two and half year clinical and radiological evaluation of the conservative treatment of a 10 year-old patient, who had a unilateral green-stick type fracture. The patient presented with painful facial swelling localized over the left condylar region, limited mouth-opening and mandibular deviation to the left. Panoramic radiography and computed tomography confirmed the diagnosis of incomplete fracture on the left condyle with one side of the bone fractured and the other bent. Closed reduction was chosen to allow for initial fibrous union of the fracture segments and remodeling with a normal functional stimulus. A non-rigid mandibular splint was applied in order to remove the direct pressure on the fracture side of the mandible. Clinical and radiologic examination after 30 months revealed uneventful healing with reduction of the condylar head and remodeling of the condylar process following conservative treatment

Forecasting exchange rate volatility: GARCH models versus implied volatility forecasts

This study investigates whether different specifications of univariate GARCH models can usefully forecast volatility in the foreign exchange market. The study compares in-sample forecasts from symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models with the implied volatility derived from currency options for four dollar parities. The data set covers the period 2002 to 2012. We divide the data into two periods one for the period 2002 to 2007 which is characterised by low volatility and the other for the period 2008 to 2012 characterised by high volatility. The results of this paper reveal that the implied volatility forecasts significantly outperforms the three GARCH models in both low and high volatility periods. The results strongly suggest that the foreign exchange market efficiently prices in future volatility

Widespread genomic influences on phenotype in Dravet syndrome, a 'monogenic' condition

Dravet syndrome is an archetypal rare severe epilepsy, considered "monogenic", typically caused by loss-of-function SCN1A variants. Despite a recognisable core phenotype, its marked phenotypic heterogeneity is incompletely explained by differences in the causal SCN1A variant or clinical factors. In 34 adults with SCN1A-related Dravet syndrome, we show additional genomic variation beyond SCN1A contributes to phenotype and its diversity, with an excess of rare variants in epilepsy-related genes as a set and examples of blended phenotypes, including one individual with an ultra-rare DEPDC5 variant and focal cortical dysplasia. Polygenic risk scores for intelligence are lower, and for longevity, higher, in Dravet syndrome than in epilepsy controls. The causal, major-effect, SCN1A variant may need to act against a broadly compromised genomic background to generate the full Dravet syndrome phenotype, whilst genomic resilience may help to ameliorate the risk of premature mortality in adult Dravet syndrome survivors

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Supporting the Development of Digitally Competent VET Teachers in Serbia and Russia

Introduction. In the modern educational space, an intensive digital transformation is currently taking place, which imposes new requirements for teacher competencies. This determines the relevance of setting goals and solving problems in order to develop up-to-date models for improving the qualifications of teachers of vocational education and training (VET). The paper discusses the current state of the development of digital competencies of teachers and teachers of Serbia and Russia in line with the European Digital Competence Framework (DigComp) and the European Digital Competence Framework for Educators (DigСompЕdu). The paper includes an analysis of the peculiarities of vocational education and training systems, as well as the directions of further training of teachers, conducted by participants in the international project “Professional Development of Vocation Education Teachers with European Practices (Pro-VET)”. In order to better understand national contexts, the content of the reports of the participating countries of the project was analysed in the context of the EU policy and strategy for the development of digital competency of VET teachers. In this article, the authors focus on exploring digital competencies required of VET teachers within the European Digital Competence Framework for Educators (DigСompЕdu) to identify digital competencies and development needs of Serbian and Russian VET teachers when working in online learning environments.The aims of the research are the following: 1) to compare the educational needs of Russian and Serbian VET teachers in the development of their digital pedagogical competencies; 2) to identify the theoretical and practical base for VET teachers’ digitally competent development programme design in the context of online learning according to the best European practices in the field of VET. Methodology and research methods. The development of the model was based on learning theories, didactics and practical approaches to soft skills development in online learning environments. The research has been conducted by the means of document analysis, theoretical analysis and synthesis methods, comparative method, modelling method and expert estimation method. Results and scientific novelty. Key aspects of VET teacher training systems in Russia and Serbia are compared and needs in development of digital pedagogical skills of Russian and Serbian VET teachers are identified. A developed model of VET teachers’ digitally competent development programme design in the context of online learning according to best European practices in this fields is represented by two components: structural and functional. The structural component of VET teachers’ digitally competent development model contains: learning theories and didactics, adult learning theories, soft skills development approaches in online learning, learning outcomes development approaches. The functional component of the model contains: national and European educational policy, strategies in the field of digitalisation of education and the development of digital competencies of teachers, European Union policies related to online learning; pedagogical, psychological and didactical design parameters of the content of advanced training programmes in the context of e-learning. Practical significance. The demonstrated model is being tested in the framework of the implementation of the international Pro-VET project supported by ERASMUS+. Methodological approaches, procedure and tools of VET teachers’ digitally competent development are being developed and tested. The application of digitally competent development programmes ensures the transparency of training and allows for the correlation of national and international training programmes as well as the development of academic and professional mobility of VET teachers. The process of designing such educational training programmes in online environment for VET teachers has begun at some universities in Russia and Serbia (participants of the project). The developed online training programmes can be used as a basis to design more quality online courses beyond the Pro-VET project in the sphere of professional development for VET teachers.Введение. В современном образовательном пространстве происходит интенсивная цифровая трансформация, которая предъявляет новые требования к компетентности преподавателя. Это определяет актуальность постановки и решения проблемы разработки современных моделей повышения квалификации преподавателей профессионального образования и обучения (ПОО). В статье обсуждается текущее состояние развития цифровых компетенций преподавателей ПОО Сербии и России в соответствии с европейскими рамками цифровизации образования (DigComp) и цифровой компетентности преподавателей (DigCompEdu); представлен анализ особенностей систем профессионального образования и обучения, а также направлений повышения квалификации педагогов, проведенный участниками международного проекта «Повышение квалификации пре подавателей профессионального образования и обучения по европейским практикам (Pro-VET)». С целью лучшего понимания национальных контекстов проанализировано содержание докладов стран – участников данного проекта в контексте политики и стратегии ЕС в области развития цифровой компетентности преподавателей ПОО. Выявлены соответствующие образовательные потребности сербских и российских преподавателей ПОО и цифровые компетенции, которые, согласно европейской рамке цифровой компетентности преподавателей (DigCompEdu), необходимы педагогам ПОО для работы в онлайн-среде обучения. Цели исследования: 1) сравнить образовательные потребности российских и сербских преподавателей ПОО в развитии их цифровых педагогических компетенций; 2) определить теоретическую и практическую основы разработки модели развития цифровой компетентности педагогов в контексте онлайн-обучения в соответствии с лучшими европейскими практиками в области ПОО. Методология и методы исследования. Разработка указанной модели базировалась на теориях обучения, дидактики и практических подходах к развитию гибких навыков в онлайн-среде обучения. Исследование проводилось с помощью анализа документов, теоретического анализа, сравнительного метода, методов синтеза, моделирования и экспертной оценки. Результаты и научная новизна. Сопоставлены аспекты системы подготовки преподавателей ПОО в России и Сербии, определены их потребности в совершенствовании цифровых компетенций. Разработана модель развития цифровой компетентности преподавателей ПОО, включающая два компонента: структурный и функциональный. Структурный компонент, представленный теориями обучения и дидактики, теориями обучения взрослых, определяет подходы к вырабатыванию мягких навыков в онлайн-обучении и использованию его результатов. Функциональный компонент, который основывается на национальной и европейской образовательной политике, стратегиях в сфере цифровизации образования и развития цифровых компетенций педагогов, политике Европейского союза в области онлайн-обучения, содержит педагогические, психологические и дидактические параметры дизайна содержания программ повышения квалификации в контексте электронного обучения. Практическая значимость. Указанная модель тестируется в рамках реализации международного проекта Pro-VET. Разрабатываются и тестируются методологические подходы, процедуры и инструменты совершенствования цифровой компетентности преподавателей ПОО. Применение программ повышения квалификации в сфере цифровых технологий обеспечивает прозрачность и сопоставимость национальных и международных образовательных программ, а также способствует развитию академической и профессиональной мобильности преподавателей ПОО. В университетах России и Сербии (участниках проекта) создаются программы онлайн-обучения для преподавателей ПОО на базе разработанной модели. Данные программы могут стать основой для разработки эффективных онлайн-курсов за пределами проекта Pro-VET в сфере повышения квалификации педагогов ПОО.The research in Pro-VET project was funded by Education, Audio-visual and Culture Executive Agency, Erasmus+, ref. 598698-EPP- 1-2018-1-FI-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP. The authors are also grateful to all partners of Pro-VET team with their valuable contributions to discussions and verification of the developed procedures. The European Commission’s support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents, which reflect the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.Исследования в рамках реализации проекта ProVET финансировались Исполнительным агентством по образованию, аудиовизуальным средствам и культуре, Erasmus+ (номер проекта 598698-EPP-1- 2018-1-FI-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP). Авторы также признательны всем партнерам команды Pro-VET за их ценный вклад в обсуждение и проверку разработанных процедур. Европейская комиссия, поддержавшая подготовку этой публикации, не несет ответственности за ее содержание и использование представленной в ней информации