How well-connected is the surface of the global ocean?

The Ekman dynamics of the ocean surface circulation is known to contain attracting regions such as the great oceanic gyres and the associated garbage patches. Less well-known are the extents of the basins of attractions of these regions and how strongly attracting they are. Understanding the shape and extent of the basins of attraction sheds light on the question of the strength of connectivity of different regions of the ocean, which helps in understanding the flow of buoyant material like plastic litter. Using short flow time trajectory data from a global ocean model, we create a Markov chain model of the surface ocean dynamics. The surface ocean is not a conservative dynamical system as water in the ocean follows three-dimensional pathways, with upwelling and downwelling in certain regions. Using our Markov chain model, we easily compute net surface upwelling and downwelling, and verify that it matches observed patterns of upwelling and downwelling in the real ocean. We analyze the Markov chain to determine multiple attracting regions. Finally, using an eigenvector approach, we (i) identify the five major ocean garbage patches, (ii) partition the ocean into basins of attraction for each of the garbage patches, and (iii) partition the ocean into regions that demonstrate transient dynamics modulo the attracting garbage patches

The separation of the East Australian Current: A Lagrangian approach to potential vorticity and upstream control

The East Australian Current (EAC) is the western boundary current flowing along the east coast of Australia separating from the coast at approximately 34°S. After the separation two main pathways can be distinguished, the eastward flowing Tasman Front and the extension of the EAC flowing southward. The area south of the separation latitude is eddy-rich and the separation latitude of the EAC is variable. Little is known of the properties of the water masses that separate at the bifurcation of the EAC. This paper presents new insights from the Lagrangian perspective, where the water masses that veer east and those that continue south are tracked in an eddy-permitting numerical model. The transport along the two pathways is computed, and a 1:3 ratio between transport in the EAC extension and transport in the Tasman Front is found. The results show that the "fate" of the particles is to first order already determined by the particle distribution within the EAC current upstream of the separation latitude, where 85% of the particles following the EAC extension originate from below 460 m and 90% of the particles following the Tasman Front originate from the top 460 m depth at 28°S. The separation and pathways are controlled by the structure of the isopycnals in this region. Analysis of anomalies in potential vorticity show that in the region where the two water masses overlap, the fate of the water depends on the presence of anticyclonic eddies that push isopycnals down and therefore enable particles to travel further south

Relating Agulhas leakage to the Agulhas Current retroflection location

The relation between the Agulhas Current retroflection location and the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the transport of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is investigated in a high-resolution numerical ocean model. Sudden eastward retreats of the Agulhas Current retroflection loop are linearly related to the shedding of Agulhas rings, where larger retreats generate larger rings. Using numerical Lagrangian floats a 37 year time series of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage in the model is constructed. The time series exhibits large amounts of variability, both on weekly and annual time scales. A linear relation is found between the magnitude of Agulhas leakage and the location of the Agulhas Current retroflection, both binned to three month averages. In the relation, a more westward location of the Agulhas Current retroflection corresponds to an increased transport from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. When this relation is used in a linear regression and applied to almost 20 years of altimetry data, it yields a best estimate of the mean magnitude of Agulhas leakage of 13.2 Sv. The early retroflection of 2000, when Agulhas leakage was probably halved, can be identified using the regression

Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing

Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km(2) and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat

Biogeographic patterns in ocean microbes emerge in a neutral agent-based model.

A key question in ecology and evolution is the relative role of natural selection and neutral evolution in producing biogeographic patterns. We quantify the role of neutral processes by simulating division, mutation, and death of 100,000 individual marine bacteria cells with full 1 million-base-pair genomes in a global surface ocean circulation model. The model is run for up to 100,000 years and output is analyzed using BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool) alignment and metagenomics fragment recruitment. Simulations show the production and maintenance of biogeographic patterns, characterized by distinct provinces subject to mixing and periodic takeovers by neighbors (coalescence), after which neutral evolution reestablishes the province and the patterns reorganize. The emergent patterns are substantial (e.g., down to 99.5% DNA identity between North and Central Pacific provinces) and suggest that microbes evolve faster than ocean currents can disperse them. This approach can also be used to explore environmental selection

Paleo Agulhas rings enter the subtropical gyre during the penultimate deglaciation

A maximum in the strength of Agulhas leakage has been registered at the interface between the Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T-II). This presumably transported the salt and heat necessary for maintaining the Atlantic circulation at rates similar to the present day. However, it was never shown whether these waters were effectively incorporated into the South Atlantic gyre, or whether they retroflected into the Indian and/or Southern oceans. To resolve this question, we investigate the presence of paleo Agulhas rings from a sediment core on the central Walvis Ridge, almost 1800 km farther into the Atlantic Basin than previously studied. Analysis of a 60 yr data set from the global-nested INALT01 model allows us to relate density perturbations at the depth of the thermocline to the passage of individual rings over the core site. Using this relation from the numerical model as the basis for a proxy, we generate a time series of variability of individual Globorotalia truncatulinoides delta O-18. We reveal high levels of pycnocline depth variability at the site, suggesting enhanced numbers of Agulhas rings moving into the South Atlantic Gyre around T-II. Our record closely follows the published quantifications of Agulhas leakage from the east of the Cape Basin, and thus shows that Indian Ocean waters entered the South Atlantic circulation. This provides crucial support for the view of a prominent role of the Agulhas leakage in the shift from a glacial to an interglacial mode of the Atlantic circulation

Studying an Agulhas ring's long-term pathway and decay with finite-time coherent sets

© 2015 AIP Publishing LLC. Coherent sets in dynamical systems are regions in phase space that optimally >carry mass> with them under the system's evolution, so that these regions experience minimal leakage. The dominant tool for determining coherent sets is the transfer operator, which provides a complete description of Lagrangian mass transport. In this work, we combine existing transfer operator methods with a windowing scheme to study the spatial and temporal evolution of a so-called Agulhas ring: a large anticyclonic mesoscale eddy playing a key role in inter-ocean exchange of climate-relevant properties. Our focus is on ring decay over time and the windowing scheme enables us to study how the most coherent region (our estimate of the ring) varies in position and size over a period of more than two years. We compare the eddy-like structure and its spatio-temporal changes as revealed by our method and by a classical Eulerian approach.The altimeter products were produced by Ssalto/Duacs and distributed by Aviso, with support from CNES (http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/duacs/). G.F. and C.H. were partially supported by the 2011/12 Go8/DAAD Australia/Germany Joint Research Co-Operation Scheme. G.F. was also supported by an ARC Future Fellowship. E.v.S. was supported by the ARC via Grant DE130101336. V.R. acknowledges support from MICINN and FEDER through the ESCOLA project (CTM2012-39025-C02-01) while finishing this paper.Peer Reviewe

Laboratory measurements of the wave-induced motion of plastic particles: influence of wave period, plastic size and plastic density

The transport of plastic particles from inland sources to the oceans garbage patches occurs trough coastal regions where the transport processes depend highly on wave-induced motions. In this study, experimental measurements of the plastic particles wave-induced Lagrangian drift in intermediate water depth are presented investigating the influence of the wave conditions, particle size and density on the motion of relatively large plastic particles. A large influence of the particle density is observed causing particles to float or sink for relative densities lower and larger than water respectively. The measured net drift of the floating particles correlates well with theoretical solutions for particle Stokes drift, where the net drift is proportional to the square of the wave steepness. Floating particles remain at the free water surface because of buoyancy and no evidence of any other influence of particle inertia on the net drift is observed. Nonfloating particles move close to the bed with lower velocity magnitudes than the floating particles’ motion at the free surface. The drift of nonfloating particles reduces with decreasing wave number, and therefore wave steepness.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Iron sources and pathways into the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent

Using a novel observationally constrained Lagrangian iron model forced by outputs from an eddy-resolving biogeochemical ocean model, we examine the sensitivity of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) iron distribution to EUC source region iron concentrations. We find that elevated iron concentrations derived from New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) alone is insufficient to explain the high concentrations observed in the EUC. In addition, due to the spread in transit times, interannual NGCU iron pulses are scavenged, diluted, or eroded, before reaching the eastern equatorial Pacific. With an additional iron source from the nearby New Ireland Coastal Undercurrent, EUC iron concentrations become consistent with observations. Furthermore, as both the New Guinea and New Ireland Coastal Undercurrents strengthen during El Niño, increased iron input into the EUC can enhance the iron supply into the eastern equatorial Pacific. Notably, during the 1997/1998 El Niño, this causes a simulated 30% iron increase at a 13 month lag

Surface connectivity and inter-ocean exchanges from drifter-based transition matrices

Global surface transport in the ocean can be represented by using the observed trajectories of drifters to calculate probability distribution functions. The oceanographic applications of the Markov Chain approach to modelling include tracking of floating debris and water masses, globally and on yearly-to-centennial timescales. Here, we analyse the error inherent with mapping trajectories onto a grid and the consequences for ocean transport modelling and detection of accumulation structures. A sensitivity analysis of Markov Chain parameters is performed in an idealised Stommel gyre and western boundary current as well as with observed ocean drifters, complementing previous studies on widespread floating debris accumulation. Focusing on two key areas of inter-ocean exchange - the Agulhas System and the North Atlantic intergyre transport barrier - we assess the capacity of the Markov Chain methodology to detect surface connectivity and dynamic transport barriers. Finally, we extend the methodology's functionality to separate the geostrophic and non-geostrophic contributions to inter-ocean exchange in these key regions