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Methodologies for tracking of load extremes and error estimation using probabilistic techniques

This work, conducted at CIMNE under ALEF project task 1.2.3, presents an investigation about the potential capabilities of neural networks to assist simulation campaigns. The discrete gust response of an aircraft has been chosen as a typical problem in which the determination of the critical loads requires exploring a large parameter space. A very simple model has been used to compute the aerodynamic loads. This allows creating a large database while at the same time retaining some of the fundamental properties of the problem. Using this comprehensive dataset the effects of network structure, training method and sampling strategy on the level of approximation over the complete domain have been investigated. The capabilities of the neural network to predict the peak load as well as the critical values of the design parameters have also been assessed. The applicability of neural networks to the combination of multi-fidelity results is also explored

The molecular environment of the pillar-like features in the HII region G46.5-0.2

At the interface of HII regions and molecular gas peculiar structures appear, some of them with pillar-like shapes. Understanding their origin is important for characterizing triggered star formation and the impact of massive stars on the interstellar medium. In order to study the molecular environment and the influence of the radiation on two pillar-like features related to the HII region G46.5-0.2, we performed molecular line observations with the Atacama Submillimeter Telescope Experiment, and spectroscopic optical observations with the Isaac Newton Telescope. From the optical observations we identified the star that is exciting the HII region as a spectral type O4-6. The molecular data allowed us to study the structure of the pillars and a HCO+ cloud lying between them. In this HCO+ cloud, which have not any well defined 12CO counterpart, we found direct evidence of star formation: two molecular outflows and two associated near-IR nebulosities. The outflows axis orientation is perpendicular to the direction of the radiation flow from the HII region. Several Class I sources are also embedded in this HCO+ cloud, showing that it is usual that the YSOs form large associations occupying a cavity bounded by pillars. On the other hand, it was confirmed that the RDI process is not occurring in one of the pillar tips.Comment: Accepted in MNRAS (2017 June 13

Comparison within a dental disease (caries) in two historical populations in the Roman southern Spain: Cortijo Nuevo and Cortijo Coracho (3-8th centuries AD)

Two populations excavated in the region of Lucena (Córdoba, Spain) are presented here, in which the presence and frequency of caries has been analyzed in two samples of individuals older than 20 years: a population of Late Roman period, Cortijo Nuevo (3-4th centuries AD), with 9 individuals and 112 dental crowns analyzed; and the Late Antiquity population of Cortijo Coracho (4-8 centuries AD), with 160 individuals and 1681 dental crowns analyzed. It has been possible to determine that there is a tendency towards the appearance of the caries in the posterior teeth of the same ones, mainly in the molars. The analysis performed with the Chi square statistic, in the Cortijo Coracho sample, showed that its presence in the posterior teeth, especially in the molars, is significant. On the other hand, after analyzing various parameters (the frequency of teeth with caries and the Individuals Frequency with caries or IFC), it was possible to determine that the economy of the population of Cortijo Nuevo was based on a mixed diet with non-cariogenic products, where there were abundant non-cereal vegetables and animal proteins from hunting and/or livestock. Similarly, the population of Cortijo Coracho would present an economy based on a cariogenic diet with fermentable, non-protein products, mostly from cereals. These types of diets correspond to the type and frequency of oral lesions caused by caries observed in the samples of teeth analyzed

Synoptic patterns associated with wildfires caused by lightning in Castile and Leon, Spain

The Iberian Peninsula presents the highest number of wildfires in Europe. In the NW of Spain in particular, wildfires are the natural risk with the greatest economic impact in this region. Wildfires caused by lightning are closely related to the triggering of convective phenomena. The prediction of thunderstorms is a very complex task because these weather events have a local character and are highly dependent on mesoscale atmospheric conditions. The development of convective storms is directly linked to the existence of a synoptic environment favoring convection. The aim of this study is to classify the atmospheric patterns that provide favorable environments for the occurrence of wildfires caused by lightning in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain. The database used for the study contains 376 wildfire days from the period 1987–2006. NCEP data reanalysis has been used. The atmospheric fields used to characterise each day were: geopotential heights and temperatures at 500 hPa and 850 hPa, relative humidity and the horizontal wind at 850 hPa. A Principal Component Analysis in T-mode followed by a Cluster Analysis resulted in a classification of wildfire days into five clusters. The characteristics of these clusters were analysed and described, focusing particularly on the study of those wildfire days in which more than one wildfire was detected. In these cases the main feature observed was the intensification of the disturbance typical of the cluster to which the wildfire belongs

On the quasinormal modes of the de Sitter spacetime

Modifying a method by Horowitz and Hubeny for asymptotically anti-de Sitter black holes, we establish the classical stability of the quasinormal modes of the de Sitter spacetime. Furthermore using a straightforward method we calculate the de Sitter quasinormal frequencies of the gravitational perturbations and discuss some properties of the radial functions of these quasinormal modes.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Tail autotomy effects on the escape behavior of the lizard Gonatodes albogularis (Squamata: Sphaerodactylidae), from Córdoba, Colombia

Background: Caudal autotomy appears to be an adaptation strategy to reduce the risk of being preyed upon. In an encounter with a predator, the prey must reduce the risk of being preyed upon, and one of the strategies that has exerted a strong pressure on selection has been tail loss. In lizards, it has been demonstrated that tail loss reduces the probability of survival in the event of a second attack; therefore, they must resort to new escape strategies to reduce the risk of falling prey. In order to evaluate the effect of tail loss on the escape behavior of Gonatodes albogularis in natural conditions, we took samples from a forest interior population. We expected that individuals that had not lost their tails would allow the predator to get closer than those that had lost it. For each sample, we recorded the following: (1) escape behavior, measured through three distances (e.g., approach distance, escape distance, and final distance); (2) distance to shelter; and (3) length of tail. We included only males in the study since we did not record any females without a tail and far fewer with a regenerated tail. Results: We found that tail loss does have an effect on the escape behavior of G. albogularis. Males that have their tails intact allow the predator to come closer, and we found a negative correlation between the approach distance and the length of the tail. Conclusion: Our results support the escape behavior theory, in which G. albogularis males drop their tails when the risk of predation is much higher than the cost of fleeing.Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse

Study of 11 September 2004 hailstorm event using radar identification of 2-D systems and 3-D cells

The most important hail event recorded in the region of the Ebro Valley (NE Spain) in 2004 was the 11 September episode. Large hailstones (some of them with a diameter of over 30 mm) caused important damages in agriculture and properties. The hail event affected an area of 3848 ha and was caused by several multicellular systems. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the associated convective structures using the meteorological radar as well as the MM5 mesoscale model, thermodynamic data and a hailpad network. To achieve this end, the new hailstorm analysis tool RHAP (Rainfall events and Hailstorms Analysis Program) has been applied. It identifies tracks and characterises precipitation systems and convective cells, taking into account 2-D and 3-D structures. The event has also been studied with the TITAN software (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) in an attempt to compare both methods. Results show that the episode had a strong convective activity with CAPE values over 4000 J/kg and with hail-forming cells characterised by VIL (Vertical Integrated Liguid) exceeding 40 kg/m², VILD (VIL density) over 4 g/m³, HP (Hail Probability) of 100% and SHP (Severe Hail Probability) of over 75%. The hail cells evolved into multicellular systems that lasted between 70 and 90 min. Finally, the comparison of RHAP and TITAN has shown significant correlations between methods

Threading Through Macrocycles Enhances the Performance of Carbon Nanotubes as Polymer Fillers

In this work we study the reinforcement of polymers by mechanically interlocked derivatives of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs). We compare the mechanical properties of fibers made of polymers and of composites with pristine single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs), mechanically interlocked derivatives of SWNTs (MINTs) and the corresponding supramolecular models. Improvements of both Young's modulus and tensile strength of up to 200 % were observed for the polystyrene-MINTs samples with an optimized loading of just 0.01 wt.%, while the supramolecular models with identical chemical composition and loading showed negligible or even detrimental influence. This behavior is found for three different types of SWNTs and two types of macrocycles. Molecular dynamics simulations show that the polymer adopts an elongated conformation parallel to the SWNT when interacting with MINT fillers, irrespective of the macrocycle chemical nature, whereas a more globular structure is taken upon facing with either pristine SWNTs or supramolecular models. The MINT composite architecture thus leads to a more efficient exploitation of the axial properties of the SWNTs and of the polymer chain at the interface, in agreement with experimental results. Our findings demonstrate that the mechanical bond imparts distinctive advantageous properties to SWNT derivatives as polymer fillers.Comment: 39 pages, 19 figure