Agent-level determinants of price expectation formation in online double-sided auctions

For an auctioneer, it is of utmost importance to design an auction mechanism that gives robust price signals which in turn increases auction performance. Information architecture and forward trading platforms are the two main information sources that could generate these price signals. However the traditional presumption that agents form rational expectations by accurately processing all available information in the online trading environment and forming their expectations accordingly has found mixed support. We develop a research model that empirically tests the impact of agents’ attitudes on their price expectation through their trading behaviour. Using a unique data set, we tested our hypotheses on real ex ante forecasts, evaluated ex post, in an electricity day ahead auction context. This paper is one of the first to take an information-based view to study the trading behaviour of agents and their price expectations, with results that suggest a re-consideration of some of the conventional concepts

Competitive Benchmarking: An IS Research Approach to Address Wicked Problems with Big Data and Analytics

Wicked problems like sustainable energy and financial market stability are societal challenges that arise from complex socio-technical systems in which numerous social, economic, political, and technical factors interact. Understanding and mitigating them requires research methods that scale beyond the traditional areas of inquiry of Information Systems (IS) “individuals, organizations, and markets” and that deliver solutions in addition to insights. We describe an approach to address these challenges through Competitive Benchmarking (CB), a novel research method that helps interdisciplinary research communities to tackle complex challenges of societal scale by using different types of data from a variety of sources such as usage data from customers, production patterns from producers, public policy and regulatory constraints, etc. for a given instantiation. Further, the CB platform generates data that can be used to improve operational strategies and judge the effectiveness of regulatory regimes and policies. We describe our experience applying CB to the sustainable energy challenge in the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) in which more than a dozen research groups from around the world jointly devise, benchmark, and improve IS-based solutions

Mass measurements of very neutron-deficient Mo and Tc isotopes and their impact on rp process nucleosynthesis

The masses of ten proton-rich nuclides, including the N=Z+1 nuclides 85-Mo and 87-Tc, were measured with the Penning trap mass spectrometer SHIPTRAP. Compared to the Atomic Mass Evaluation 2003 a systematic shift of the mass surface by up to 1.6 MeV is observed causing significant abundance changes of the ashes of astrophysical X-ray bursts. Surprisingly low alpha-separation energies for neutron-deficient Mo and Tc are found, making the formation of a ZrNb cycle in the rp process possible. Such a cycle would impose an upper temperature limit for the synthesis of elements beyond Nb in the rp process.Comment: Link to online abstract: http://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.106.12250

Flooding events turned into farming opportunities: Innovation transforms livelihoods of pastoralists in Ethiopia, Policy Brief 13

• Water Spreading Weirs: To capture and spread the torrential flood emerging in the neighboring highlands to low-lying rangelands and crop fields, five weirs were built based on land suitability studies. • Working together: Joint planning and execution between community leaders, landscape and crop researchers and development agents using a combination of good agronomy, remote sensing and GIS-based maps yielded positive results. • Success draws attention: Seeing the results, pastoralists were willing to take up farming. It created local confidence, drew government attention and benefited pastoralists

Water spreading weirs altering flood, nutrient distribution and crop productivity in upstream–downstream settings in dry lowlands of Afar, Ethiopia

Afar in Ethiopia is a drought prone area characterized by low rainfall, high temperature and suffering from flash flood emerging from adjacent mountains. We introduced a flood barrier, water spreading weirs (WSWs) in 2015 to convert floods to a productive use and assessed its effect in 2016 and 2017. WSWs resulted in deposition of sediments where sand deposition was higher in the upside of upstream weir whereas silt and clay deposition was prominent at the central location between the two weirs. There was a moisture gradient across farming fields with volumetric water content (VWC) at 20 cm depth varying between 10 and 22% depending on the relative position/distance of fields from the WSWs, consequently, effecting significant difference in yield between fields. There was a positive relationship between VWC made available by WSWs at planting and the yield (P < 0.001, r = 0.76) and biomass productivity (P < 0.005, r = 0.46). WSWs created differing farming zone following soil moisture regime, affecting grain and biomass yield. In good potential zones with high moisture content, the WSW-based farming enabled to produce up to 5 and 15 t ha−1 yr−1 of maize grain and biomass, respectively, while in low potential zones there was a complete crop grain failure. The system enabled pastoralists to produce huge amount of biomass and grain during Belg (short) and Meher (long) growing seasons that was stored and utilized during succeeding dry periods. Furthermore, the practice ensured a visible recovery of degraded rangelands. This was evident from the filling up of the riverbed as well as the two WSW wings with 1 m high and about 450 m length each with fertile sediment from Belg and Meher seasons of 2016 and 2017. Hence, future studies should analyze the sustainability and the potential of flood-based development at large scale

DNA methylation-based classification of central nervous system tumours.

Accurate pathological diagnosis is crucial for optimal management of patients with cancer. For the approximately 100 known tumour types of the central nervous system, standardization of the diagnostic process has been shown to be particularly challenging-with substantial inter-observer variability in the histopathological diagnosis of many tumour types. Here we present a comprehensive approach for the DNA methylation-based classification of central nervous system tumours across all entities and age groups, and demonstrate its application in a routine diagnostic setting. We show that the availability of this method may have a substantial impact on diagnostic precision compared to standard methods, resulting in a change of diagnosis in up to 12% of prospective cases. For broader accessibility, we have designed a free online classifier tool, the use of which does not require any additional onsite data processing. Our results provide a blueprint for the generation of machine-learning-based tumour classifiers across other cancer entities, with the potential to fundamentally transform tumour pathology

First-line treatment of malignant glioma with carmustine implants followed by concomitant radiochemotherapy: a multicenter experience

Randomized phase III trials have shown significant improvement of survival 1, 2, and 3 years after implantation of 1,3-bis (2-chloroethyl)-1-nitrosourea (BCNU) wafers for patients with newly diagnosed malignant glioma. But these studies and subsequent non-phase III studies have also shown risks associated with local chemotherapy within the central nervous system. The introduction of concomitant radiochemotherapy with temozolomide (TMZ) has later demonstrated a survival benefit in a phase III trial and has become the current treatment standard for newly diagnosed malignant glioma patients. Lately, this has resulted in clinical protocols combining local chemotherapy with BCNU wafers and concomitant radiochemotherapy with TMZ although this may carry the risk of increased toxicity. We have compiled the treatment experience of seven neurosurgical centers using implantation of carmustine wafers at primary surgery followed by 6 weeks of radiation therapy (59–60 Gy) and 75 mg/m2/day TMZ in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma followed by TMZ monochemotherapy. We have retrospectively analyzed the postoperative clinical course, occurrence and severity of adverse events, progression-free interval, and overall survival in 44 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme. All patients received multimodal treatment including tumor resection, BCNU wafer implantation, and concomitant radiochemotherapy. Of 44 patients (mean age 59 ± 10.8 years) with glioblastoma who received Gliadel wafer at primary surgery, 28 patients (64%) had died, 16 patients (36%) were alive, and 15 patients showed no evidence of clinical or radiographic progression after a median follow-up of 15.6 months. At time of analysis of adverse events in this patient population, the median overall survival was 12.7 months and median progression-free survival was 7.0 months. Surgical, neurological, and medical adverse events were analyzed. Twenty-three patients (52%) experienced adverse events of any kind including complications that did not require treatment. Nineteen patients (43%) experienced grade 3 or grade 4 adverse events. Surgical complications included cerebral edema, healing abnormalities, cerebral spinal fluid leakage, meningitis, intracranial abscess, and hydrocephalus. Neurological adverse events included newly diagnosed seizures, alteration of mental status, and new neurological deficits. Medical complications were thromboembolic events (thrombosis, pulmonary embolism) and hematotoxicity. Combination of both treatment strategies, local chemotherapy with BCNU wafer and concomitant radiochemotherapy, appears attractive in aggressive multimodal treatment schedules and may utilize the sensitizing effect of TMZ and carmustine on MGMT and AGT on their respective drug resistance genes. Our data demonstrate that combination of local chemotherapy and concomitant radiochemotherapy carries a significant risk of toxicity that currently appears underestimated. Adverse events observed in this study appear similar to complication rates published in the phase III trials for BCNU wafer implantation followed by radiation therapy alone, but further add the toxicity of concomitant radiochemotherapy with systemic TMZ. Save use of a combined approach will require specific prevention strategies for multimodal treatments