Less Than 2 °C Warming by 2100 Unlikely.

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a statistically-based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960-2010, including the UN's probabilistic population projections for all countries2-4, we develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for GDP per capita and carbon intensity. We find that the 90% interval for cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC's two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9°C, with median 3.2°C and a 5% (1%) chance that it will be less than 2°C (1.5°C). Population growth is not a major contributing factor. Our model is not a "business as usual" scenario, but rather is based on data which already show the effect of emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5°C warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past

The Debatability of Islam in Late-Ottoman Serials and Censorship

The Hamidian cheap illustrated press was a highly productive arena for debate on Ottoman identities, including discussions of Muslim inflections of daily life, and of patriotic duties and responsibilities. By the end of the century, this debate involved not only hundreds of new professional journalists, but also readers who responded critically to editorials, articles, and advertisements. In addition, the several branches of the Hamidian bureaucracy which participated in censorship – Ministries of Education, Interior, and Police, and other inspection and judiciary offices competed against each other to promote or delimit client publications and journalists

Storage Stability of Atheroglitatide, an Echogenic Liposomal Formulation of Pioglitazone Targeted to Advanced Atheroma with a Fibrin-Binding Peptide

We have conducted a stability study of a complex liposomal pharmaceutical product, Atheroglitatide (AGT), stored at three temperatures, 4, 24, and 37 °C, for up to six months. The six parameters measured were functions of liposomal integrity (size and number), drug payload (loading efficiency), targeting peptide integrity (conjugation efficiency and specific avidity), and echogenicity (ultrasound-dependent controlled drug release), which were considered most relevant to the product\u27s intended use. At 4 °C, liposome diameter trended upward, indicative of aggregation, while liposome number per mg lipid and echogenicity trended downward. At 24 °C, peptide conjugation efficiency (CE) and targeting efficiency (TE, specific avidity) trended downward. At 37 °C, CE and drug (pioglitazone) loading efficiency trended downward. At 4 °C, the intended storage temperature, echogenicity, and liposome size reached their practical tolerance limits at 6 months, fixing the product expiration at that point. Arrhenius analysis of targeting peptide CE and drug loading efficiency decay at the higher temperatures indicated complete stability of these characteristics at 4 °C. The results of this study underscore the storage stability challenges presented by complex nanopharmaceutical formulations

The partitioning of poleward energy transport response between the atmosphere and Ekman flux to prescribed surface forcing in a simplified GCM

Recent studies have indicated that ocean circulation damps the atmospheric energy transport response to hemispherically differential energy perturbations, thereby muting the shifts of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Here, we focus on the potential role of Ekman heat transport in modulating this atmospheric response. An idealized representation of Ekman-driven heat transport (FE) is included in an aquaplanet slab ocean coupled to a gray radiation atmospheric model. We first alter the strength of FE in the control climate by tuning the gross stability of the Ekman layer SE. For a wide range of FE, the total poleward transport of energy remains nearly unchanged, but the ocean transports an increasing share for larger SE. The control climate is then perturbed by adding surface cooling in the Southern Hemisphere and warming in the Northern Hemisphere. The Ekman coupling damps the atmospheric energy transport response, as in previous coupled model experiments with full ocean dynamics. The ratio of the changes in Ekman to atmospheric energy transport is determined by the ratio of the gross stability in the Ekman layer to the atmosphere in the control climate, and is insensitive to the amplitude and location of forcing. We find that an unrealistically large SE is needed to reproduce the ratio of the changes in cross-equatorial oceanic to atmospheric energy transport in fully coupled models. The limited damping effect of Ekman transport highlights the need to examine the roles of deep circulation and subtropical gyres, as well as ocean heat uptake processes

Initiating and imaging cavitation from infused echo contrast agents through the EkoSonic catheter

Ultrasound-enhanced delivery of therapeutic-loaded echogenic liposomes is under development for vascular applications using the EkoSonic Endovascular System. In this study, fibrin-targeted echogenic liposomes loaded with an anti-inflammatory agent were characterized before and after infusion through an EkoSonic catheter. Cavitation activity was nucleated by Definity or fibrin-targeted, drug-loaded echogenic liposomes infused and insonified with EkoSonic catheters. Passive cavitation imaging was used to quantify and map bubble activity in a flow phantom mimicking porcine arterial flow. Cavitation was sustained during 3-min infusions of Definity or echogenic liposomes along the distal 6 cm treatment zone of the catheter. Though the EkoSonic catheter was not designed specifically for cavitation nucleation, infusion of drug-loaded echogenic liposomes can be employed to trigger and sustain bubble activity for enhanced intravascular drug delivery

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets

Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can "runaway" until all the oceans are evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause oceans to escape to space before the runaway greenhouse occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated with unidimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of Earth's climate. Here we use a 3D global climate model to show that the threshold for the runaway greenhouse is about 375 W/m$^2$, significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback on the long term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to defer the runaway greenhouse limit to higher insolation than inferred from 1D models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains cold and dry enough to hamper atmospheric water escape, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for Venus early water history and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.Comment: Published in Nature. Online publication date: December 12, 2013. Accepted version before journal editing and with Supplementary Informatio

Synthesis of Alkaline Earth Diazenides MAEN2 (MAE = Ca, Sr, Ba) by Controlled Thermal Decomposition of Azides under High Pressure

The alkaline earth diazenides MAEN2 with MAE = Ca, Sr and Ba were synthesized by a novel synthetic approach, namely, a controlled decomposition of the corresponding azides in a multianvil press at highpressure/ high-temperature conditions. The crystal structure of hitherto unknown calcium diazenide (space group I4/mmm (no. 139), a = 3.5747(6) Å, c = 5.9844(9) Å, Z = 2, wRp = 0.078) was solved and refined on the basis of powder X-ray diffraction data as well as that of SrN2 and BaN2. Accordingly, CaN2 is isotypic with SrN2 (space group I4/mmm (no. 139), a = 3.8054(2) Å, c = 6.8961(4) Å, Z = 2, wRp = 0.057) and the corresponding alkaline earth acetylenides (MAEC2) crystallizing in a tetragonally distorted NaCl structure type. In accordance with literature data, BaN2 adopts a more distorted structure in space group C2/c (no. 15) with a = 7.1608(4) Å, b = 4.3776(3) Å, c = 7.2188(4) Å, β = 104.9679(33)°, Z = 4 and wRp = 0.049). The N−N bond lengths of 1.202(4) Å in CaN2 (SrN2 1.239(4) Å, BaN2 1.23(2) Å) correspond well with a double-bonded dinitrogen unit confirming a diazenide ion [N2]2−. Temperature-dependent in situ powder X-ray diffractometry of the three alkaline earth diazenides resulted in formation of the corresponding subnitrides MAE2N (MAE = Ca, Sr, Ba) at higher temperatures. FTIR spectroscopy revealed a band at about 1380 cm−1 assigned to the N−N stretching vibration of the diazenide unit. Electronic structure calculations support the metallic character of alkaline earth diazenides